Tariffs Catch-All | 4-week delays on many Mexico and CDN tariffs

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So Europe and China seem to be taking a hardline stance against Trump.

I wonder if they finally realized that they can no longer have an amicable relationship with Trump and that they need to put real pressure on his administration.

If they baited Trump into saying something truly offensive or threatening, they could justify with their citizens that economic pressure needs to be put on the US. It would be painful for them but devastating for us.

Trump like all bullies only responds to strength.
 
It seems pretty clear the goal here is to slow down the economy, create volatility and uncertainty in the market, and increase unemployment which would lead to lowered interest rates and a slowdown of inflation. Tariffs can off set some of the tax cuts which would then be passed on as cost to consumers, but consumers will have less capital so there will be downward pressure on commodity prices regardless of tariffs.

If you are very wealthy - this scenario gives you the opportunity to buy into lower valuations in the securities markets and real estate markets (the net result of a significant economic slowdown). You will have lower interest rates to borrow capital for your businesses and lower interest rates to leverage for further asset purchases. And you will have an easier time finding labor for your businesses.

It almost seems like this is the plan - the only argument against this being "the plan" is that it's hard to imagine Trump or anyone in his orbit having this amount of economic foresight and planning.

It seems pretty obvious this is a recipe for disaster for everyone who isn't incredibly wealthy.
 
www.wsj.com

The Recession Trade Is Back on Wall Street

Bank stocks and the Russell 2000 have slumped on growth concerns, while Treasurys and gold have rallied.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com


“… “I think a lot of people were just assuming that tariffs was just a bluff, and now there’s more uncertainty around that,” said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services.

… Many remain confident that this latest bout of economic jitters will prove no worse than others that have popped up in recent years.

The present threat strikes some as less alarming because it is driven by government policies that Trump could reverse in a moment, as he has done in the past. Stocks retraced a portion of their weekly declines Wednesday after the White House said that automakers would get a one-month exemption from the new tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports.

Still, concerns had been building on Wall Street since the inauguration, as the new administration moved much more aggressively than expected both in pushing tariffs and laying off government workers.

So far, the worst economic reports have been largely confined to so-called soft data, such as confidence surveys.

…Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, is among those skeptical that bonds can keep rallying.

Jacbosen said that he still believes that Trump will use tariffs mostly as a negotiating tool, but that the president clearly intends to drive a harder bargain than he had previously anticipated.

“I thought the negotiation would have taken place before the implementation,” he said. “Apparently, he would rather do: implement first, negotiate later.” “
 
Has Trump even stated what his goal is other than vague pronouncements of “we need better deals.” Does he even know? Does anyone? Serious question.
 
Sad Baby GIF

www.theguardian.com

Jack Daniel’s maker says Canada pulling US alcohol off shelves ‘worse than tariff’

CEO Lawson Whiting calls Canada’s move ‘disproportionate response’ to levies imposed by Trump administration
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

The Jack Daniel’s maker Brown-Forman’s CEO Lawson Whiting said on Wednesday Canadian provinces taking US liquor off store shelves was “worse than a tariff” and a “disproportionate response” to levies imposed by the Trump administration.

Several Canadian provinces have taken US liquor off store shelves as part of retaliatory measures against Donald Trump’s tariffs.
 
p5mmr9 said:
It seems pretty clear the goal here is to slow down the economy, create volatility and uncertainty in the market, and increase unemployment which would lead to lowered interest rates and a slowdown of inflation. Tariffs can off set some of the tax cuts which would then be passed on as cost to consumers, but consumers will have less capital so there will be downward pressure on commodity prices regardless of tariffs.

If you are very wealthy - this scenario gives you the opportunity to buy into lower valuations in the securities markets and real estate markets (the net result of a significant economic slowdown). You will have lower interest rates to borrow capital for your businesses and lower interest rates to leverage for further asset purchases. And you will have an easier time finding labor for your businesses.

It almost seems like this is the plan - the only argument against this being "the plan" is that it's hard to imagine Trump or anyone in his orbit having this amount of economic foresight and planning.

It seems pretty obvious this is a recipe for disaster for everyone who isn't incredibly wealthy.
Click to expand...

If you notice, Republican policies generally favor boom and bust economics. I have long suspected that the reason for that is that Wall Street knows how to make REAL money either way. And we know Wall Street has a pipeline of support going to Trump.

Sure, Trump and his inner circle may not understand economics, but that doesn't stop the outside influence coming from somewhere. Interesting, that if we have a recession this time then that would make four recessions in a row where the Republicans were in charge of the White House.
 
ChileG said:
Has Trump even stated what his goal is other than vague pronouncements of “we need better deals.” Does he even know? Does anyone? Serious question.
Click to expand...
Negotiators from Mexico and Canada says that the U.S. does not seem to know what it wants and is not providing any objective goals to meet in order to end the trade war.

Leavitt suggested yesterday that the tariffs on Canada are to pressure it into statehood (but IMO she was just parroting prior tweets by Trump more than expressing an intentional policy).

I think part of this is Trump proving to everyone that he cannot be managed this term like in his first term — he has reportedly long bristled at post 2020 stories of how cabinet members and other high level staff treated erratic policy pronouncements as blowing off steam and if they ignored him for very long he would forget and move on to something else. He is making clear that he will implement whatever he wants whenever he wants no matter what anyone else says, and I think he gets off on the power to jerk people around right now.
 
nycfan said:
Negotiators from Mexico and Canada says that the U.S. does not seem to know what it wants and is not providing any objective goals to meet in order to end the trade war.

Leavitt suggested yesterday that the tariffs on Canada are to pressure it into statehood (but IMO she was just parroting prior tweets by Trump more than expressing an intentional policy).

I think part of this is Trump proving to everyone that he cannot be managed this term like in his first term — he has reportedly long bristled at post 2020 stories of how cabinet members and other high level staff treated erratic policy pronouncements as blowing off steam and if they ignored him for very long he would forget and move on to something else. He is making clear that he will implement whatever he wants whenever he wants no matter what anyone else says, and I think he gets off on the power to jerk people around right now.
Click to expand...
What the negotiators from Mexico and Canada are saying rings true to me (which is why I asked the question).

So, to the Trump supporters here I’d ask, if this is all just some grand negotiating strategy…how? Nobody even knows what the end game is. How is that strategy if Trump nor anyone else can even articulate what Trump wants? Can you see that he is wrecking the economy for reasons that he can’t articulate? Can you not see that this is bad for business with zero upside?
 
I just posted on other tariffs thread,but belongs here. Other thread is for stock market reaction I suppose.

Trump just announced another delay in Mexico tariffs. Looks like he will do same for Canada. He just announced reciprical tariffs during speech to Congress, but no details, so those are effectively off the table until he does.

Another case of moron crying wolf. The fact is, every time the market turns negative since the start if his King regime, he has backed off.

In typical fashion, he has claimed victory with many more new concessions by both Mexico and Canada (complete BS) and warns they must do much more before the next deadline.

He is such an idiot and making our entire country look foolish and unhinged.
 
altmin said:
Sad Baby GIF

www.theguardian.com

Jack Daniel’s maker says Canada pulling US alcohol off shelves ‘worse than tariff’

CEO Lawson Whiting calls Canada’s move ‘disproportionate response’ to levies imposed by Trump administration
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

The Jack Daniel’s maker Brown-Forman’s CEO Lawson Whiting said on Wednesday Canadian provinces taking US liquor off store shelves was “worse than a tariff” and a “disproportionate response” to levies imposed by the Trump administration.

Several Canadian provinces have taken US liquor off store shelves as part of retaliatory measures against Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Click to expand...

Good. I hope Canada keeps it up.
 
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