Tariffs Catch-All

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nycfan said:
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Trump was up late contemplating vengeance against our allies.
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This sounds very Putinesque. "I started this trade war and if the countries we harm resist, we will double down." Sort of like how Putin blames Ukraine for his invasion and it doesn't occur to Trump that the quickest way to peace is for Putin to stop the invasion.

The beatings will continue until morale improves.
 
farce© said:
As long as they assemble the vehicle in the US, it won't face the tariffs. The imported components will be subject to tariffs as they enter the country so the costs will rise for the domestic assembly plants whether the plant is building Ford, GM, Honda, or BMW. The tariffs are sheer idiocy but the bookkeeping isn't difficult.
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Any way you slice it the tariffs result in higher prices. Isn't that all the cult wanted?
 
farce© said:
This sounds very Putinesque. "I started this trade war and if the countries we harm resist, we will double down." Sort of like how Putin blames Ukraine for his invasion and it doesn't occur to Trump that the quickest way to peace is for Putin to stop the invasion.

The beatings will continue until morale improves.
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As usual Trump has a very one-sided definition of what it means to be a "friend" to another country.

I know Trump is a complete moron when it comes to historical/geopolitical knowledge and understanding, but it continues to astound me that so many of these MAGA meatheads around him think that it will help the USA to destroy the post-WWII global order that was created by the USA and has greatly benefitted us. What is the global system/order they envision that is more beneficial to the US than the one we've had for the last 80 years? We have been in charge; we've dictated global geopolitics; we have near-universal cultural supremacy; we have created a massive group of allies who come to our aid when needed; we are the most prosperous nation in the world. Yet somehow no amount of power and wealth the US may have is enough for these fools; they somehow think we can have vastly more of both without turning the whole world against us. It is a worldview that absolutely boggles my mind and that I've never heard anyone really offer a coherent explanation for. Anyone who looks at the last few decades and comes to the conclusion that the rest of the world has been taking advantage of the USA, as opposed to the other way around, is delusional.
 
rodoheel said:
What is the global system/order they envision that is more beneficial to the US than the one we've had for the last 80 years?
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MAGA doesn't "envision" things. They just react to shit.


And you answered your own question in the same post.
rodoheel said:
Anyone who looks at the last few decades and comes to the conclusion that the rest of the world has been taking advantage of the USA, as opposed to the other way around, is delusional.
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farce© said:
As long as they assemble the vehicle in the US, it won't face the tariffs. The imported components will be subject to tariffs as they enter the country so the costs will rise for the domestic assembly plants whether the plant is building Ford, GM, Honda, or BMW. The tariffs are sheer idiocy but the bookkeeping isn't difficult.
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Do you know this, or are you assuming? Because that's not how country-of-origin rules typically work. We had this issue arise for the EV discounts, which Manchin had insisted would only apply to American-built cars. The regulations defining what is and isn't "American built" were really intricate. So too with the country-of-origin rules in the NAFTA agreement.

I've yet to see the official tariff proclamation. I'd imagine it cross-references other sections of law -- such as the ones described above -- at least for starters, but it's Trump so who knows.
 
nycfan said:
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Tariffs don't necessarily mean ongoing inflation. But a key input to inflation is inflation expectations, and if inflation expectations rise because of tariffs, there could develop an inflationary spiral. That's why the Fed likely will have to keep interest rates high.

It's also true that American companies will be passing on price increases for some time. With a 25% tariff on steel, for instance, American steelmakers can now raise prices by up to 25%. Let's say they are really struggling to compete on price so they only raise 20%, and competition within the industry means an equilibrium of 15%. That's not going to happen at once (unlike with prices of imports). Maybe 7.5% over two years.
 
superrific said:
Do you know this, or are you assuming? Because that's not how country-of-origin rules typically work. We had this issue arise for the EV discounts, which Manchin had insisted would only apply to American-built cars. The regulations defining what is and isn't "American built" were really intricate. So too with the country-of-origin rules in the NAFTA agreement.

I've yet to see the official tariff proclamation. I'd imagine it cross-references other sections of law -- such as the ones described above -- at least for starters, but it's Trump so who knows.
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I haven't seen details of the tariff proclamation and I'm not interested enough to dig any deeper. I basing this on my experience.

You are correct that the NAFTA country of origin rules were complicated based on value of content from various countries. Labor is also content and labor for final assembly is a big number in the cost of the vehicle. I spent many years working for a large global original equipment component supplier, and we would ship parts all over the world in various states of completion to perform final finish operations in whatever country we needed. We would have metal stampings or forgings produced in say, Bulgaria, then ship the parts to Mexico for a surface finish operation. At that point it became Mexican content as far as NAFTA assembly plants were concerned. Or it was "local content" for the VW plant in Puebla.
 
Here are the "details" as specified in the Trump announcement:
  • Importers of automobiles under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement will be given the opportunity to certify their U.S. content and systems will be implemented such that the 25% tariff will only apply to the value of their non-U.S. content.
    • USMCA-compliant automobile parts will remain tariff-free until the Secretary of Commerce, in consultation with U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), establishes a process to apply tariffs to their non-U.S. content.
So there won't be any tariffs on Mexico/Canada at all in the short term (assuming that automobiles count as automobile parts) until the Secretary establishes that process, which might never happen. I think all auto stuff is USMCA compliant, unlike many other products (though I'm not sure).
 
altmin said:
onemileatatime.com

Airline Demand Between Canada & United States Collapses, Down 70%+

Future flight bookings between Canada and the United States are down by over 70% year-over-year in the summer months. WOW.
onemileatatime.com onemileatatime.com

Aviation analytics company OAG has published some data on the decline in flight bookings between the countries, and it’s worse than most people probably imagined. Specifically, the company compared summer season bookings in March 2024 vs. March 2025. In other words, at this point in both years, how many people have booked transborder flights in April through September?

Well, I hope you’re sitting down. For that six month period, the number of tickets booked is down anywhere from 71.4% to 75.7%. Just as an example, April is less than a week away, and here’s how bookings between the two countries are looking:

  • In March 2024, 1,218,570 tickets had been booked for April 2024
  • In March 2025, 295,982 tickets have been booked for April 2025
  • That represents a 75.7% reduction in tickets booked
I knew it was bad, but I didn’t expect it would be that bad, as that level of demand shift is something you almost never see.

Everyone can draw their own conclusions as to what’s causing this. It’s also anyone’s guess if we’re at rock bottom in terms of consumer sentiment, and if we’ll see more close-in bookings than in past years. But either way, April is right around the corner, and those drops are massive.
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How much longer is a flight from Canada to Cancun than Florida?
 
farce© said:
This sounds very Putinesque. "I started this trade war and if the countries we harm resist, we will double down." Sort of like how Putin blames Ukraine for his invasion and it doesn't occur to Trump that the quickest way to peace is for Putin to stop the invasion.

The beatings will continue until morale improves.
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Nothing quick and easy as to ending the Russo-Ukraine War by insisting that Putin stop the invasion.

Putin WON’T stop the invasion.

I know you know that, farce.
 
Calheel said:
That depends where in Canada. Eastern Canada is darn close to Europe.
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It was a rhetorical question of sorts.

Not many people live in Canada’s Maritime Provinces (those “close” across the Atlantic to Europe.). Might be a shorter flight over the Arctic to Europe. Like Maine, the Maritime Provinces are poor. The residents aren’t spending big bucks traveling.

Forty percent of Canadians live in Ontario. Something like 80-90% of Canadians live with 50-100 miles of the USA. They have major airports not far from the USA and they can easily fly to Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean. They will.
 
I know I posted the -70% travel bookings yesterday, but looking at the raw numbers is stark. And this is SPRING/ SUMMER bookings. The snowbirds aren't reflected in this dataset - that's a huge chunk of people. One year from now Florida/ Arizona might have some severe economic issues.

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Data from: Flight Database & Statistics | Aviation Analytics | OAG
 

Senate Democrats to force vote next week on Trump’s fentanyl tariffs on Canada​

The lawmakers are tapping a provision in a 1976 law that allows any senator to force a vote to block emergency powers being abused by the president.


“…
Next week’s Senate vote would only end the national emergency with regard to Canada, a staunch U.S. ally that Trump has repeatedly denigrated by calling it the 51st state. It would put Republicans in the potentially awkward position of voting against Trump over his use of tariffs.

The vote also would take place one day before Trump is set to announce a new set of “reciprocal” tariffs on potentially all trading partners, including Canada, Mexico and China, as well as others in Europe, Asia and elsewhere.

Earlier this month, House Republicans slipped language into a House rule on their stopgap funding bill that would prevent any member of Congress from bringing up a resolution terminating Trump’s declaration of a national emergency over fentanyl and undocumented immigrants entering the U.S.

However, proponents hope Senate approval of the measure crafted by Kaine, Klobuchar and Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) would put pressure on House Republicans to act.“
 
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