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Legend of ZZL
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When I was in my early twenties, a lesbian coworker told me that you should never push directly on the head of the man in the boat.
Tariffs Catch-All
- Thread starter BubbaOtis
- Start date
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- Views: 150K
- Politics
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Nvidia Warns of $5.5 Billion Charge on New China Export Curbs; Stock Drops
“Nvidia said it would record a $5.5 billion charge on its quarterly earnings and disclosed that the U.S. will now require a license for exporting the company's H20 processors to China and other countries.
The government told the chip maker Monday the new requirement would be in place “indefinitely,” the company said.
First-quarter results will include the $5.5 billion charge “associated with H20 products for inventory, purchase commitments and related reserves."
… The company had designed the H20 chips to enable sales of artificial-intelligence processors to China that were allowed under U.S. export controls. The H20 chips have far less processing power than the latest top-of-the-line Nvidia processors.
The Commerce Department said it was issuing new export-licensing requirements covering H20 chips and AMD's MI308 processors.
… On Monday, Nvidia said it would start building AI supercomputers in Texas. The announcement came days after President Trump exempted H20 processors from inclusion in so-called reciprocal tariffs. …”
——
On a possibly related note, the NASDAQ futures are down about 1.7% heading to the opening bell today. But things fluctuated rapidly these days.
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- 3,990
US’s $2.36tn tourism business fears ‘Trump slump’ over tariff turmoil
Warnings emerge even as effect of economic and political turbulence on the foreign visitors to the US is hard to define
The federal government’s National Travel and Tourism Office released preliminary figures last week showing visits to the US from overseas fell 11.6% in March compared with the same month last year. According to the data released on Tuesday, international arrivals from China were down nearly 1%. Wolfgang Georg Arlt, the CEO of the China Outbound Tourism Research Institute, called it the “Trump Slump”.
The Delta Air Lines CEO, Ed Bastian, also said the company would not expand flying in the second half of the year because of disappointing bookings amid Trump’s unpredictable trade policies after cutting its first-quarter earnings outlook, citing weaker-than-expected corporate and leisure travel demand.
“In the last six weeks, we’ve seen a corresponding reduction in broad consumer confidence and corporate confidence,” Bastian told CNBC, adding things “really started to slow” in mid-February.
The Las Vegas Visitors and Convention Authority said last week it was projecting a 5% decline in room tax revenue for its upcoming budget – a decline that may reflect Trump’s trade disputes with Canada and Mexico. Those countries account for 2.6 million visitors to sin city, or half of international travel trade.
LVCVA’s president, Steve Hill, warned at a budget meeting that short-term projected declines do not make a trend, “although we do expect that this is the start of a decline in international visitation. At some level, the conversation around the tariffs has also alienated some of our potential visitors.”
The travel forecasting company Tourism Economics, which late last year projected the US would have nearly 9% more international arrivals this year, along with a 16% increase in spending, revised its annual outlook last week to predict a 9.4% decline in arrivals.
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- 29,668
In the wait and see department, Easter was on March 31 last year, so there could be some travel happening in April this year that was in March last year.US’s $2.36tn tourism business fears ‘Trump slump’ over tariff turmoil
Warnings emerge even as effect of economic and political turbulence on the foreign visitors to the US is hard to definewww.theguardian.com
The federal government’s National Travel and Tourism Office released preliminary figures last week showing visits to the US from overseas fell 11.6% in March compared with the same month last year. According to the data released on Tuesday, international arrivals from China were down nearly 1%. Wolfgang Georg Arlt, the CEO of the China Outbound Tourism Research Institute, called it the “Trump Slump”.
The Delta Air Lines CEO, Ed Bastian, also said the company would not expand flying in the second half of the year because of disappointing bookings amid Trump’s unpredictable trade policies after cutting its first-quarter earnings outlook, citing weaker-than-expected corporate and leisure travel demand.
“In the last six weeks, we’ve seen a corresponding reduction in broad consumer confidence and corporate confidence,” Bastian told CNBC, adding things “really started to slow” in mid-February.
The Las Vegas Visitors and Convention Authority said last week it was projecting a 5% decline in room tax revenue for its upcoming budget – a decline that may reflect Trump’s trade disputes with Canada and Mexico. Those countries account for 2.6 million visitors to sin city, or half of international travel trade.
LVCVA’s president, Steve Hill, warned at a budget meeting that short-term projected declines do not make a trend, “although we do expect that this is the start of a decline in international visitation. At some level, the conversation around the tariffs has also alienated some of our potential visitors.”
The travel forecasting company Tourism Economics, which late last year projected the US would have nearly 9% more international arrivals this year, along with a 16% increase in spending, revised its annual outlook last week to predict a 9.4% decline in arrivals.
- Messages
- 29,668
“… Here’s what Trump and his sycophants don’t understand about international trade: It’s not about what you can sell, it’s about what you can buy.
Think for a minute about the finances of individuals. Why do people work? Not to be able to boast that they ran trade surpluses with their employers — “Hey, they paid me a lot, and I hardly bought anything from them.” No, people sell their labor so that they can afford to buy stuff.
…
But what matters in a trade war is the fact that China can fairly easily find other agricultural suppliers, buying soybeans from Brazil instead of Iowa.
By contrast, the United States will have a hard time replacing many of the goods it imports from China. Furthermore, many of the goods we buy from China are industrial inputs rather than consumer goods.
So Trump has started a trade war that will disrupt our own supply chains. Remember Covid and its immediate aftermath? Remember how shortages spread through the economy and fueled inflation? Those days are about to come back, inflicting especially large damage on the manufacturing sector Trump claims he will revive. …”
Why Trump Will Lose His Trade War
His people don’t know what they’re doing or what they want
paulkrugman.substack.com
lawtig02
Inconceivable Member
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- 4,982
I have not always liked Krugman over the years but this is SPOT ON. I'll challenge any of the pro-Trumpers here to take it on. And I'm 100% certain you won't.
“… Here’s what Trump and his sycophants don’t understand about international trade: It’s not about what you can sell, it’s about what you can buy.
Think for a minute about the finances of individuals. Why do people work? Not to be able to boast that they ran trade surpluses with their employers — “Hey, they paid me a lot, and I hardly bought anything from them.” No, people sell their labor so that they can afford to buy stuff.
…
But what matters in a trade war is the fact that China can fairly easily find other agricultural suppliers, buying soybeans from Brazil instead of Iowa.
By contrast, the United States will have a hard time replacing many of the goods it imports from China. Furthermore, many of the goods we buy from China are industrial inputs rather than consumer goods.
So Trump has started a trade war that will disrupt our own supply chains. Remember Covid and its immediate aftermath? Remember how shortages spread through the economy and fueled inflation? Those days are about to come back, inflicting especially large damage on the manufacturing sector Trump claims he will revive. …”
Why Trump Will Lose His Trade War
His people don’t know what they’re doing or what they want
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- 7,091
Where's dogood? I'm sure he's up to the challenge.
superrific
Master of the ZZLverse
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- 10,836
Krugman is almost always spot on. He's never out in left field. I suspect that your former conservative self didn't like him because politics.
Generally speaking, before I take a stance on a matter of economics, I like to see what Krugman says first. Well, not so much any more -- I learned more economics from Krugman than anyone else, and so I can usually predict his position. Sort of like how I got really good at predicting Justice Breyer.
Point is: Krugman is a national treasure. How many Nobel winners basically give up economics halfway through their careers to become a political pundit, to try to make economics more accessible to people and help them understand the world? I mean, he's no Ben Shapiro hack. He's one of the most influential economists of his generation.
superrific
Master of the ZZLverse
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Trying to beat China in a trade war is like invading Russia in winter.
It's not a winnable battle. Russia could skirmish, retreat into the show, consume the local supplies and burn the rest -- all more or less indefinitely. China has an analogous ability in a trade war. They have so much hunkering-down potential, and we have a president with a one-week attention span and a population that will not be going along for the ride. We'd lose even they didn't have the minerals. Having the minerals is just a bonus for them.
It's not a winnable battle. Russia could skirmish, retreat into the show, consume the local supplies and burn the rest -- all more or less indefinitely. China has an analogous ability in a trade war. They have so much hunkering-down potential, and we have a president with a one-week attention span and a population that will not be going along for the ride. We'd lose even they didn't have the minerals. Having the minerals is just a bonus for them.
To frame it in terms of winning and losing misses what Trump is all about. He runs a reality tv show on a daily basis. Chaos, and yes losing and reframing a loss as a win is what he does. That, and one foot on the gas and one foot on the brakes is how he roles.
It boggles the mind how he gets by. But he's proven that losing is not much of a speed bump.
You keep a-swervin' in my lane
And it's causing' lots of danger
I'm a-honkin' on my horn
I'm a-shootin' you the finger
I keep a-switchin' on my bright lights
But you're just too dim to know
When your swervin' on life's highway
You're runnin' someone off the road
- Messages
- 745
Wow, Trump's tariffs have brought in a whopping $500 Million so far. And these are real figures (Customs and Border Protections), not the made up garbage the Trump team puts out.
I am beginning to think there might still be an INTERNAL Revenue Service, and all our funding will not come from tariff taxes paid for by U.S. customers.
I mean, after Elon sends every Murican their $5K checks he promised, we might just have to pay taxes one more year.
Trump claims $2 Billion per day has been collected..
I am beginning to think there might still be an INTERNAL Revenue Service, and all our funding will not come from tariff taxes paid for by U.S. customers.
I mean, after Elon sends every Murican their $5K checks he promised, we might just have to pay taxes one more year.
Trump claims $2 Billion per day has been collected..
I'm not sure China has as much "hunkering-down potential" as you do. My understanding is that China cannot operate (ie feed their population) without substantial imports of both fuel and food including fertilizer. China can be cut off from important supplies via sanctions and blockade far outside the short operating range of the Chinese Navy. However, that would require cooperation from our many allies and trading partners that Trump just told to go screw. There is also the very real probability that such an act could quickly turn into a shooting war.
I've long felt that China isn't built to wage military war, they wage war via business and economics. In that light, January 20th, 2025 might as well have been September 1, 1939.
To win a trade war requires the nuance and precision of a skilled surgeon. What Trump has is a group of monkeys trying to fuck a football.
“… Here’s what Trump and his sycophants don’t understand about international trade: It’s not about what you can sell, it’s about what you can buy.
Think for a minute about the finances of individuals. Why do people work? Not to be able to boast that they ran trade surpluses with their employers — “Hey, they paid me a lot, and I hardly bought anything from them.” No, people sell their labor so that they can afford to buy stuff.
…
But what matters in a trade war is the fact that China can fairly easily find other agricultural suppliers, buying soybeans from Brazil instead of Iowa.
By contrast, the United States will have a hard time replacing many of the goods it imports from China. Furthermore, many of the goods we buy from China are industrial inputs rather than consumer goods.
So Trump has started a trade war that will disrupt our own supply chains. Remember Covid and its immediate aftermath? Remember how shortages spread through the economy and fueled inflation? Those days are about to come back, inflicting especially large damage on the manufacturing sector Trump claims he will revive. …”
Why Trump Will Lose His Trade War
His people don’t know what they’re doing or what they want
Its obvious why Trump uses 2 Billion per day. He thinks he can replace at least the corporate income tax and be a hero to his kind of folks. But he neglects the net math like the farmer bailouts he's already talking about.
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- 3,990
Vehicle Supplies Are Dwindling as People Race to Buy Everything but Teslas
Tariffs have people concerned about the price of cars.
gizmodo.com
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- 3,434
Because he has built a cult of supporters who never question him, and is the beneficiary of a media sphere which never holds him accountable for anything. Competence and positive results are not requirements for Trump to “succeed.”
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- 7,091
$500M collected at an uncountable cost...
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- 7,091
How can we justify sanctions for them responding to our stupidity?