Teamsters will withhold endorsement

gtyellowjacket said:
I have no idea. I just know that polls consistently put the economy as the number one or number two issue for Republicans. I'm going to assume that extends to the subset of teamsters who support Trump over Harris.

That could be inflation or jobs or I guess even immigration but to just dismiss it as racism is a great way to lose voters.
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Inflation and immigration could be part of it, but jobs makes no sense. I agree with you it’s not primarily racism. I happen to think it’s almost entirely about national leadership’s coziness to Trump. The actions of the local chapters are showing this is not a union-wide dynamic. I’m not putting much credence in the internal survey numbers national leadership is sharing.
 
gtyellowjacket said:
I think it's jobs. You could translate that to Hispanics driving trucks or gas prices or not getting enough loads. Even if it is racism for some of them, those people vote And the majority of people Dad don't think they're racists don't like being called racist. Calling the majority of your potential electorate racist isn't a position that drives a lot of votes.
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Teamsters aren’t just truck drivers.
 
CallMeTyler said:
Teamsters won’t save Trump, GT. Sorry.
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I hope not and no need to apologize. But the working class union members from the teamsters and other unions will deliver more votes than you think.

Bill got those voters. Obama got those voters. Biden got those voters. Hillary didn't.
 
lawtig02 said:
Inflation and immigration could be part of it, but jobs makes no sense. I agree with you it’s not primarily racism. I happen to think it’s almost entirely about national leadership’s coziness to Trump. The actions of the local chapters are showing this is not a union-wide dynamic. I’m not putting much credence in the internal survey numbers national leadership is sharing.
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Why don't you put much stock in the internal numbers? Genuinely curious because those numbers really have me worried.
 
gtyellowjacket said:
I hope not and no need to apologize. But the working class union members from the teamsters and other unions will deliver more votes than you think.

Bill got those voters. Obama got those voters. Biden got those voters. Hillary didn't.
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It’s okay. I think your premise struggles to find validation. Councils representing over 1/3 of the total membership endorse Kamala.

Focus on that rather than an arbitrary straw poll.
 
gtyellowjacket said:
Why don't you put much stock in the internal numbers? Genuinely curious because those numbers really have me worried.
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Why would I? Do you have any info on the Teamsters’ electronic polling protocol? On how they weight their responses? On why they release some polls but not others? I’m not saying their numbers are absolutely wrong, but I give it about as much credibility as I’d give a poll of Twitter/X’s employees released by Elon Musk. The Teamsters vote matters most in the Rust Belt, and we see what local leadership is doing there.
 
lawtig02 said:
Why would I? Do you have any info on the Teamsters’ electronic polling protocol? On how they weight their responses? On why they release some polls but not others? I’m not saying their numbers are absolutely wrong, but I give it about as much credibility as I’d give a poll of Twitter/X’s employees released by Elon Musk. The Teamsters vote matters most in the Rust Belt, and we see what local leadership is doing there.
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Fair enough. I hope you're right.
 
CallMeTyler said:
It’s okay. I think your premise struggles to find validation. Councils representing over 1/3 of the total membership endorse Kamala.

Focus on that rather than an arbitrary straw poll.
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I don't know. I think I would worry more about the hundreds of thousands of rank and file teamsters than the dozen or so people that decide on an endorsement at each of those regional councils. Those union leaders control some money and can organize some phone banks but each of their votes in the presidential only count for one a piece.
 
gtyellowjacket said:
I don't know. I think I would worry more about the hundreds of thousands of rank and file teamsters than the dozen or so people that decide on an endorsement at each of those regional councils. Those union leaders control some money and can organize some phone banks but each of their votes in the presidential only count for one a piece.
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How many do you suspect participated in the straw poll? How does it compare to prior straw polls? Pretty important data points you don't seem to have available.

And the council's immediate rebuke of that press release suggests it doesn't actually represent the union membership's positions on which candidate they prefer.

On one hand, you have Sean pandering to the GOP and Trump. On the other, council's who deal directly with local members support Kamala. I'd lean toward local leadership having a stronger finger on the pulse, but that's just me.
 
CallMeTyler said:
How many do you suspect participated in the straw poll? How does it compare to prior straw polls? Pretty important data points you don't seem to have available.

And the council's immediate rebuke of that press release suggests it doesn't actually represent the union membership's positions on which candidate they prefer.

On one hand, you have Sean pandering to the GOP and Trump. On the other, council's who deal directly with local members support Kamala. I'd lean toward local leadership having a stronger finger on the pulse, but that's just me.
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I'll repost this in case anyone missed it because it looks similar. This was the poll before Biden dropped out. Yes, caveats about the poll methodology that law tiger pointed out but I still think it's a problem for Harris.

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