The Weather Thread

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Where do yall find these model runs?

Looking at Windy.com and models I see have it staying south :(
 
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aGDevil2k said:
Where do yall find these model runs?

Looking at Windy.com and models I see have it staying south :(
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You can go to the "Pivotal Weather" site shown on CarolinaFever's models. I don't really understand very well how to get the exact models CF gets, though, or how to read them all.
 
I am reminded of a great scene in the series from the earth to the moon. A reporter is talking to the chief NASA meteorologist and he is proudly showing all the latest equipment in Doppler radar, wind speed indicators, forecasting modeling etc.

But at the end he says the most important tool at his disposal is the big picture glass window so he can see outside.
 
uncgriff said:
I am reminded of a great scene in the series from the earth to the moon. A reporter is talking to the chief NASA meteorologist and he is proudly showing all the latest equipment in Doppler radar, wind speed indicators, forecasting modeling etc.

But at the end he says the most important tool at his disposal is the big picture glass window so he can see outside.
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Found it. Models: GFS - Pivotal Weather

You can then change the model under models - the slider takes you out to the date/time. But right now it looks like the Euro is saying it's gonna go and stay south. The others still have a nicer chance. The Canadian model looks fun!
 
Apple weather app is useless a week out. It went from showing 14-16 inches of snow next week to 6-8 inches to now 2-3 inches. Wait an hour and it will be all rain.
Looking at one model is useless and what the armchair weather accounts on Facebook love to do where they find the most extreme model to drive clicks.
 
circlesky88 said:
Apple weather app is useless a week out. It went from showing 14-16 inches of snow next week to 6-8 inches to now 2-3 inches. Wait an hour and it will be all rain.
Looking at one model is useless and what the armchair weather accounts on Facebook love to do where they find the most extreme model to drive clicks.
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It would probably be most accurate to say that every weather app is pretty much useless a week out, unless you are just looking for general info about roughly in what range temperatures are going to be.
 
rodoheel said:
It would probably be most accurate to say that every weather app is pretty much useless a week out, unless you are just looking for general info about roughly in what range temperatures are going to be.
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They’re not useless, they’re just not terribly precise at that distance.

What you can probably take from them a week out is a warning not to make critical plans if the weather is projected to be bad, but recognize that the forecast will change, as well.
 
SnoopRob said:
They’re not useless, they’re just not terribly precise at that distance.

What you can probably take from them a week out is a warning not to make critical plans if the weather is projected to be bad, but recognize that the forecast will change, as well.
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My problem is that they often present information in a way that implies some level of precision.

If you're going to say 1-3", that range itself should incorporate the variability - within one standard deviation or so. If that means your forecast looking a week out has to say you are expecting 0-20" then so be it. Don't pretend to have knowledge that you don't have.

I used to complain about this to my meteorologist brother. He explained that in the NWS (at least in their standard communication releases) they were pretty rigid and couldn't do statistical probability type forecasting.
 
Latest Raleigh forecast discussion
Tuesday afternoon another weather system is expected to move into
the region. While models are still inconsistent with the track of
the parent low that would fuel the precip and p-type, ensembles have
shown there might be enough moisture in the atmosphere to produce
some measurable snow Tuesday afternoon and overnight
 
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