Trump Admin takes over D.C. Policing

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ZZLPHeels said:
Except the original point was hyper-focused on blaming the MAGAS for the high crime rate when the data has shown that this is a dishonest allegation.
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It's also a dishonest allegation to blame high murder rates on being a Black person or there being a high prevalence of Black people in a community. Correlation and causation are not the same thing.

People dont get addicted to meth because they are white even though the vast majority who are addicted to meth are indeed white.
 
Icky Mettle said:
Really? There is actual causation based solely on race? I’m curious then why New Jersey, which has a fairly sizable African-American population, also has a relatively low murder rate compared to most states. And Alaska, which has one of the smaller AA populations, has one of the higher murder rates among all states (ditto for New Mexico). Also, why is it that those southern states with higher murder rates also have higher murder rates among their white populations compared to other states? Obviously that’s a statistic that contributes to their higher murder rates, but what contributed to that statistic?

And were you suggesting earlier that having substantial AA populations provides a bit of an excuse for those southern states having comparatively high murder rates (maybe you weren’t suggesting that)? If that’s the case then why wasn’t Washington, DC afforded such consideration? And is there an excuse for the higher murder rates within the white populations (relative to other states) of those states?
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Let's take a look at the data. We'll start with counties, since listing most dangerous cities alone would be unfair to rural areas. The most recent data I was able to find on a county level was from 2017, but here are the top 10 most dangerous counties in the U.S. by homicide rate per capita, along with their racial demographics and their voting behavior in the 2024 Presidential Election.

1. Orleans Parish, Louisiana. 53% black, 31% white. Harris 82%, Trump 15%.
2. Coahoma County, Mississippi. 75% black, 20% white. Harris 72%, Trump 27%.
3. Phillips County, Arkansas. 62% black, 33% white. Harris 56%, Trump 43%.
4. St Louis City, Missouri. 42% black, 42% white. Harris 81%, Trump 16%.
5. Baltimore City, Maryland. 57% black, 28% white. Harris 84%, Trump 12%.
6. Petersburg City, Virginia. 73% black, 15% white. Harris 85%, Trump 13%.
7. Macon County, Alabama. 79% black, 16% white. Harris 78%, Trump 21%.
8. District of Columbia. 41% black, 39% white. Harris 92%, Trump 6%.
9. Washington County, Mississippi. 71% black, 25% white. Harris 64%, Trump 34%.
10. Dallas County, Alabama. 70% black, 27% white. Harris 66%, Trump 33%.

Now, if you go to the city level to look at the same statistics, you will see a very similar finding.
 
wmheel1287 said:
It's also a dishonest allegation to blame high murder rates on being a Black person or there being a high prevalence of Black people in a community. Correlation and causation are not the same thing.

People dont get addicted to meth because they are white even though the vast majority who are addicted to meth are indeed white.
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You can look at the data I presented above and come up with your own conclusion. I didn't see any MAGA counties when crunching those numbers. Quite the opposite, really. We need to be honest with ourselves and with other people. Blaming Republicans for the high murder rates in solidly Blue cities and counties is very similar to a MAGA posting a 2024 countywide election results map and saying "Trump won 90% of America." Once you actually get a millimeter beneath the surface of the argument it collapses.

I'll put it another way. Let's take "murder" out of the equation. If there was a virus that was killing black people at a much higher rate than white people, it would be ridiculous to simply ignore those numbers and say "yeah but what about the white people." Ignoring the problem because it is uncomfortable to talk about results in nothing being done to help the people that are victimized by this problem.
 
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ZZLPHeels said:
You can look at the data I presented above and come up with your own conclusion. I didn't see any MAGA counties when crunching those numbers. Quite the opposite, really. We need to be honest with ourselves and with other people. Blaming Republicans for the high murder rates in solidly Blue cities and counties is very similar to a MAGA posting a 2024 countywide election results map and saying "Trump won 90% of America." Once you actually get a millimeter beneath the surface of the argument it collapses.
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See the word "also"? I didn't blame MAGA for anything. I said you were ALSO engaging in nonsense by blaming a murder rate on a skin color. Correlation is NOT causation. Those stats show the former, not the latter.
 
wmheel1287 said:
See the word "also"? I didn't blame MAGA for anything. I said you were ALSO engaging in nonsense by blaming a murder rate on a skin color. Correlation is NOT causation. Those stats show the former, not the latter.
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Correlation is NOT causation, you are correct. But it is interesting how you ignored the argument about homicide rates being higher in red states, which is a textbook example of a claim that correlation is causation. If you are going to criticize an argument, be fair about it.
 
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At least he admits a federal takeover of the city is a “bad thing” but this is the second time in a few days that he has threatened government of a state (Colorado) or district (DC) unless they do whatever he demands (release a felon in Colorado and I am not sure what he is demanding about crime stats in DC).
 
ZZLPHeels said:
Correlation is NOT causation, you are correct. But it is interesting how you ignored the argument about homicide rates being higher in red states, which is a textbook example of a claim that correlation is causation. If you are going to criticize an argument, be fair about it.
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ALSO. Both arguments are dumb.

One is dumb and racist.

Congrats on being precisely what you purport to hate.
 
wmheel1287 said:
ALSO. Both arguments are dumb.

One is dumb and racist.

Congrats on being precisely what you purport to hate.
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I'd argue that ignoring the suffering of black people because you'd rather feel comfortable as a white person than to attempt to save the lives of people with a darker skin pigmentation is racist. But, to each their own. If you are 100% comfortable with black people dying needlessly at a disproportionate rate then who am I to challenge you.
 
ZZLPHeels said:
Let's take a look at the data. We'll start with counties, since listing most dangerous cities alone would be unfair to rural areas. The most recent data I was able to find on a county level was from 2017, but here are the top 10 most dangerous counties in the U.S. by homicide rate per capita, along with their racial demographics and their voting behavior in the 2024 Presidential Election.

1. Orleans Parish, Louisiana. 53% black, 31% white. Harris 82%, Trump 15%.
2. Coahoma County, Mississippi. 75% black, 20% white. Harris 72%, Trump 27%.
3. Phillips County, Arkansas. 62% black, 33% white. Harris 56%, Trump 43%.
4. St Louis City, Missouri. 42% black, 42% white. Harris 81%, Trump 16%.
5. Baltimore City, Maryland. 57% black, 28% white. Harris 84%, Trump 12%.
6. Petersburg City, Virginia. 73% black, 15% white. Harris 85%, Trump 13%.
7. Macon County, Alabama. 79% black, 16% white. Harris 78%, Trump 21%.
8. District of Columbia. 41% black, 39% white. Harris 92%, Trump 6%.
9. Washington County, Mississippi. 71% black, 25% white. Harris 64%, Trump 34%.
10. Dallas County, Alabama. 70% black, 27% white. Harris 66%, Trump 33%.

Now, if you go to the city level to look at the same statistics, you will see a very similar finding.
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Actually, the highest rate in 2023 was in Hinds County, Mississippi. Where Jackson is located. Not coincidentally, Jackson has had water contamination for decades that the Mississippi government has systematically worsened through concealment and neglect.

mississippitoday.org

'Inadequate' Health Department oversight contributed to Jackson water failure, federal watchdog finds - Mississippi Today

A federal watchdog report faults Mississippi's Health Department and the EPA for Jackson's prolonged water woes.
mississippitoday.org mississippitoday.org

This is why environmental racism is a big deal, but of course we wouldn't want to talk about that DEI thing . . .
 
ZZLPHeels said:
But it is disingenuous to blame the GOP for high murder rates that are carried out by a demographic that votes D 90%+ of the time.
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Why can't you argue at a middle school level at least? My 11 year olds can identify the fallacy here. It is astounding that you think voting behavior -- and not actual state policies -- is what drives crime.
 
ZZLPHeels said:
I'd argue that ignoring the suffering of black people because you'd rather feel comfortable as a white person than to attempt to save the lives of people with a darker skin pigmentation is racist. But, to each their own. If you are 100% comfortable with black people dying needlessly at a disproportionate rate then who am I to challenge you.
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And thats not what I said at all. I'm not comfortable with ignoring the plight of any community anywhere. Ever. I want to address the root causes.

If your cause is "black", what's the solution? Eliminate black people? Lock up all black males? Sterilize the black community?
 
wmheel1287 said:
If your cause is "black", what's the solution? Eliminate black people? Lock up all black males? Sterilize the black community?
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It's not nice to get him all hot and bothered at 9:30 AM. At least wait until lunch when he can go rub one out in the bathroom stalls
 
ZZLPHeels said:
There are a number of factors at play. But it is disingenuous to blame the GOP for high murder rates that are carried out by a demographic that votes D 90%+ of the time. It would be like saying that Durham has a high crime rate because of Duke.
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That’s bullshit to cover for racist nonsense.
 
wmheel1287 said:
And thats not what I said at all. I'm not comfortable with ignoring the plight of any community anywhere. Ever. I want to address the root causes.

If your cause is "black", what's the solution? Eliminate black people? Lock up all black males? Sterilize the black community?
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I think you have to identify the root causes and go after those. Poverty is probably the biggest thing. Unequal opportunities. Lingering impacts of redlining. But there is also a cultural change that has to happen too. When a lot of the most popular and financially successful members of a given community promote gang culture and boast about killing people, that shit trickles down. If Morgan Wallen was singing constantly about going on shooting rampages with his AR, and young rednecks were doing that stuff en masse, people would rightfully call for his head.
 
ZZLPHeels said:
Let's take a look at the data. We'll start with counties, since listing most dangerous cities alone would be unfair to rural areas. The most recent data I was able to find on a county level was from 2017, but here are the top 10 most dangerous counties in the U.S. by homicide rate per capita, along with their racial demographics and their voting behavior in the 2024 Presidential Election.

1. Orleans Parish, Louisiana. 53% black, 31% white. Harris 82%, Trump 15%.
2. Coahoma County, Mississippi. 75% black, 20% white. Harris 72%, Trump 27%.
3. Phillips County, Arkansas. 62% black, 33% white. Harris 56%, Trump 43%.
4. St Louis City, Missouri. 42% black, 42% white. Harris 81%, Trump 16%.
5. Baltimore City, Maryland. 57% black, 28% white. Harris 84%, Trump 12%.
6. Petersburg City, Virginia. 73% black, 15% white. Harris 85%, Trump 13%.
7. Macon County, Alabama. 79% black, 16% white. Harris 78%, Trump 21%.
8. District of Columbia. 41% black, 39% white. Harris 92%, Trump 6%.
9. Washington County, Mississippi. 71% black, 25% white. Harris 64%, Trump 34%.
10. Dallas County, Alabama. 70% black, 27% white. Harris 66%, Trump 33%.

Now, if you go to the city level to look at the same statistics, you will see a very similar finding.
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I wasn’t addressing the political aspects in my posts. Rather, I was was addressing the issues of causation and correlation with regard to homicide rates and race.

But, in response to the post that you made after the one I am replying to here, I think you are missing the original point that triggered this particular discussion. The assertion wasn’t that MAGAism causes higher crime rates. Rather, the question was raised as to why those who align with MAGA are focused solely on crime in “blue cities” yet ignoring issues of crime in their own backyards, i.e., in “red states.” And then— this was not originally part of the discussion but came into question with your assertions regarding AA population and homicide rates— there is the question as to why high homicide rates in red states should be shrugged off where there are large AA populations, but that same rationale should not apply to blue cities with large AA populations.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
So of those 10 states, 7 are deep red Trump Country, 1 (Georgia) is purple, and only 2 are blue (Maryland and New Mexico). And 4 of the top 5 are heavily MAGA. No surprises there.
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FYI, this is the post that started the whole conversation. Where were the “correlation does not equal causation” folks then, I wonder?
 
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