Marco Rubio Isn’t Likely to Last Long as Secretary of State
He’s being undermined by fellow Republicans, and that’s before he shows up to lead a workforce Trump distrusts.
"...Rubio’s committee hearing is set for Wednesday and he’s expected to be one of the first Trump nominees to take up his post.
But he’ll be lucky to last a year at Foggy Bottom. Rubio already is being undermined — through push-back from Trump’s MAGA base, the naming of other Trump appointees with overlapping portfolios as well as the essentially weak nature of the position he’s inheriting. In my conversations with about a dozen current and former U.S. and foreign officials, even people who want him to succeed said they thought he might last two years max. Others said less than a year.
... The president-elect has named a raft of special envoys whose jobs seem to overlap with State Department posts — setting up competition that could dwarf that of previous administrations. Some may set up shop in the White House, meaning they’ll have more direct access to Trump. One is Richard Grenell, who is beloved by the MAGA crowd but deeply alarms traditional U.S. diplomats. Grenell has long wanted to be secretary of State and some predict he’ll eventually replace Rubio; for now, he’s settling for “presidential envoy for special missions,” a job that can mean just about anything. Trump also selected Tammy Bruce as the State Department’s spokesperson; she’s
previously trashed Rubio.
... There are other realities that work against Rubio. He and Trump were bitter rivals who exchanged memorable insults in the 2016 presidential race. While they long ago made up and Rubio has since aligned himself more with Trump’s views, the odds are high that the two will differ on policy. For example, Rubio has a long history of support for human rights causes; Trump is less interested.
...Trump and his acolytes view the department’s thousands of career diplomats as key figures resisting his agenda — globalists who don’t believe in America First. (Trump once called it the “Deep State Department.”) So initiatives that originate from the Foreign Service are unlikely to be prioritized.
One former Biden administration official hypothesized that Trump is fine with putting Rubio in Foggy Bottom — for now — because he “doesn’t see any role for the State Department in making foreign policy.”
... The department’s influence has been eroding for decades, often because the leaner, faster White House-based National Security Council and the better-funded Pentagon tend to shove it aside. Under Biden, for example, Secretary of State Antony Blinken himself has been looped in on decisions related to fighting in the Middle East, but his department’s bureau that deals with that region has largely been frozen out, multiple current and former U.S. diplomats have told me and my colleagues. ..."
