Ukraine War | Russia launches (I)CBM (not nuke) at Ukraine?

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gtyellowjacket said:
His incentive to stop is not destroying his army. He had less incentive to stop in Georgia, but he did it anyway.
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I think it depends on what he wants to accomplish. Georgia was small potatoes. Russia got some territory it could set up as vassal states and purge of non-Russians. With Ukraine it seems the initial plan was to take the whole country. It has a great deal of strategic, economic and cultural value. At this point he might settle for lands taken, NATO recognition of those areas as an independent state or an official part of Russia, and a guarantee that Ukraine would never be admitted to NATO. That’s a hell of a lot to give up for a country we promised to protect.
 
BlooVooDoo said:
I think it depends on what he wants to accomplish. Georgia was small potatoes. Russia got some territory it could set up as vassal states and purge of non-Russians. With Ukraine it seems the initial plan was to take the whole country. It has a great deal of strategic, economic and cultural value. At this point he might settle for lands taken, NATO recognition of those areas as an independent state or an official part of Russia, and a guarantee that Ukraine would never be admitted to NATO. That’s a hell of a lot to give up for a country we promised to protect.
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I'm not sure if Georgia would agree that it was small potatoes. Russia now has de facto control over about a fifth of their former territory.

It might be a hell of a lot to give up, but my point is that an agreement like that would mean Russia would stop. Short of NATO putting boots on the ground, All the other alternatives sound quite a bit worse.
 
gtyellowjacket said:
I'm not sure if Georgia would agree that it was small potatoes. Russia now has de facto control over about a fifth of their former territory.

It might be a hell of a lot to give up, but my point is that an agreement like that would mean Russia would stop. Short of NATO putting boots on the ground, All the other alternatives sound quite a bit worse.
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It was small potatoes for Putin. I think he got what he wanted by having European leaders involved in the settlement. It sent a message to former Soviet republics.
 
gtyellowjacket said:
It might be a hell of a lot to give up, but my point is that an agreement like that would mean Russia would stop. Short of NATO putting boots on the ground, All the other alternatives sound quite a bit worse.
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Patrick Henry would disagree. As long as the people of Ukraine want to resist, we should give them the aid necessary to do so. We asked them to give up the third largest nuclear arsenal on the planet in exchange for a promise of protection. What message do you think that sends to our allies and would-be allies? What message does it send to China? If we’re going to fold against a pathetically weakened Russia, China might take Taiwan and the Philippines and expect us to pay for their expenses.
 
BlooVooDoo said:
Patrick Henry would disagree. As long as the people of Ukraine want to resist, we should give them the aid necessary to do so. We asked them to give up the third largest nuclear arsenal on the planet in exchange for a promise of protection. What message do you think that sends to our allies and would-be allies? What message does it send to China? If we’re going to fold against a pathetically weakened Russia, China might take Taiwan and the Philippines and expect us to pay for their expenses.
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I would be okay with that, especially if we can reduce our defense spending based on the results of this war. It seems like we've crippled our biggest enemy for tens of billions of dollars instead of the trillions we spend.

I'm just not sure how much longer Ukraine wants to resist even if we continue to give them arms. They've taken an awful lot of casualties too. I'm definitely not okay with putting NATO boots on the ground to help them.
 
Calheel said:
Wait. Flynn thinks the Earth is flat? Really or just rhetorically?
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I think its rhetorical. Most of the post is. I don't think there's much to the foreign agent, Russian hookers or flat earth stuff. Anti-Vax is kind of a lie down with dogs and get fleas type of thing. But Alex Jones supporting conspiracy theorist? Oh yes. Dude went from a very well respected general to a conspiracy loon in pretty short order and then Trump decided to bring him into the cabinet and then kick him to the curb a month later.
 
Callatoroy said:
After reading this I honestly don't know where I fall on this latest escalation by Biden.


Its trump's nature to want to broker a deal because he isn't a war monger and more likely his ego will push him to take the chamberlain approach of ceding some territory because he boasted of ending the war and he wants to look like the hero.

I am questioning biden's motivation or rationale given his 2 month window. Why do it now?
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Fuck over Trump the same way Trump fucked over Biden with the Afghanistan withdrawal deal.
 
UNCBAdookJD said:
Fuck over Trump the same way Trump fucked over Biden with the Afghanistan withdrawal deal.
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Not sure I see that. The guy in charge is the guy in charge. He can and should audible at the line of scrimmage if he feels its necessary. That said, how do you think this fucks over trump?
 
BlooVooDoo said:
Why do it now? As opposed to 6 months ago? Because doing it before the election would likely have played into Trump’s hands. If you mean why not do it as soon as the polls closed on Election Day, I think that’s a fair question. Why do it at all is a no-brainer. Because Trump has campaigned on “ending” the conflict and undermining NATO. That’s unacceptable to anyone who isn’t a Russian stooge. Even if Trump is insistent on bending the knee, he would be in a stronger position with Ukraine already have been given more leeway in its own defense.
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I'm fairly confident that trump will broker a deal that cedes some territory to russia. Biden escalating doesn't change that. If anything it makes trump look more statesmanlike as he pulled the world back from the brink. Biden doing this doesn't add anything but 2 months of increased chaos. Nothing lasting.

I'm not sure trump's approach does anything but kick the can down the road unless there are severe repercussions for a future invasion and I don't think putin is really worried about that. But again, what does biden gain? Moreover, It sure seems like zelensky wants to get a deal done. He seems excited to see trump coming down the road and I'm sure putin would like to get out with something he could claim as a win to bide time until his next attempt.
 
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