Ask and ye shall receive!!!
I think this is from Adrian Atkinson (via maxbialystock, h/t max).
With exactly half of Carolina’s regular season completed (16 down, 16 to go), it seems like a good time to check in on some lineup data. Let’s go “Inside the Numbers” to see which combinations have been working well and which ones have been struggling.
• After a slow start to the season from a plus/minus perspective, the wing combination of star freshmen Ian Jackson and Drake Powell has been thriving. On the season, lineups with Jackson and Powell sharing the court have an efficiency margin of +1.4 in 226 minutes. But in the 63 minutes with Jackson at the ‘2’ and Powell at the ‘3,’ that number climbs to +9.8. Throwing out the first two games of the season (when Elon and Kansas outscored Jackson-Powell wing combos 28-12 in 9.6 minutes), it goes all the way up to a gaudy +24.4 over the last 14 games. Jackson-Powell wing combos have been especially stingy on the defensive end over that span, allowing just 0.91 points per possession (PPP) as Carolina goes to its larger backcourt.
• UNC has also been more effective with Powell at the ‘3’ than with him at the ‘4.’ Not surprisingly, perhaps, the biggest improvement has been on the defensive end. With Powell at the ‘4,’ the Heels score 1.13 PPP while allowing 1.11 in 245 minutes (a net efficiency of +2.6). When Powell slides to his more natural ‘3’ position, Carolina scores 1.15 PPP and concedes just 1.03 (a net efficiency of +11.9). Those numbers are trending even more favorably once the Elon and Kansas games are excluded. Over the last 14 games, UNC has posted an efficiency margin of +19.9 with Powell at the ‘3’ (including allowing only 0.97 PPP).
• Powell himself has been a more aggressive offensive force when playing the ‘3.’ His splits by position for the season:
As a ‘3’: 15.5 Pts/40, 59.1 TS%, 1.8 Asst/40, 2.7 TO/40, 40.5 3PtA Rate, 35.1 FTA Rate, 18.9 %Shots
As a ‘4’: 11.3 Pts/40, 61.9 TS%, 1.3 Asst/40, 0.8 TO/40, 50.0 3PtA Rate, 24.0 FTA Rate, 13.6 %Shots
His shot volume explodes as a ‘3,’ as does his free throw attempt rate. While his assists also climb, his turnovers per-40 more than triple during his minutes on the wing. As a ‘4,’ Powell is often used as a corner spacer with more of his offense coming from catch-and-shoot 3s. He has been very efficient in that low-usage offensive role, but has the ability to develop into more of a slashing force who can command more defensive attention.
• Elliot Cadeau got off to a terrific start to the season, both from a traditional box score perspective and a plus/minus one. Through the first four games, Cadeau posted a team-high efficiency margin of +37.6 in 116 minutes. But over the last 12 games (341 minutes), Carolina has actually been outscored with him on the court. UNC has a net efficiency of -4.1 in Cadeau’s minutes over that timeframe, struggling on both ends (scoring 1.06 PPP and allowing 1.10). In the 10 games against KenPom Tier A&B competition, the Heels have been 21.4 points per 100 possessions better with Cadeau on the bench (net efficiency of +11.0) than it has with him on the floor (net efficiency of -10.4).
• Speaking of on-court/off-court differentials against Tier A&B opponents, the UNC rotation players can be split into a few categories.
--> Helping the team on both ends: RJ Davis (+15.0 offensive on-court/off-court, +5.0 defensive on-court/off-court); Drake Powell (+7.1 offensive on-court/off-court, +7.0 defensive on-court/off-court); Seth Trimble (+5.4 offensive on-court/off-court, +3.0 defensive on-court/off-court)
--> Helping on offense, hurting on defense: Cade Tyson (+5.7 offensive on-court/off-court, -3.6 defensive on-court/off-court)
--> Helping on offense, neutral on defense: Ven-Allen Lubin (+11.8 offensive on-court/off-court, -1.3 defensive on-court/off-court)
--> Hurting on offense, neutral on defense: Jalen Washington (-13.7 offensive on-court/off-court, -0.7 defensive on-court/off-court)
--> Neutral on both ends: Ian Jackson (-0.3 offensive on-court/off-court, +0.9 defensive on-court/off-court)
--> Hurting the team on both ends: Elliot Cadeau (-14.5 offensive on-court/off-court, -6.9 defensive on-court/off-court); Ty Claude (-4.2 offensive on-court/off-court, -4.2 defensive on-court/off-court); Jae’Lyn Withers (-5.0 offensive on-court/off-court, -2.6 defensive on-court/off-court)
These are not a direct reflection of how the players themselves are performing, but rather how the team has performed with them on the court (without controlling for important factors like the teammates or opponents who they are sharing the court with).
• With Cadeau struggling and Jackson emerging, the lineups with Davis at the ‘1’ (and typically Jackson at either wing spot) have emerged as UNC’s most efficient. Through all 16 games, here are the most-used backcourt combinations along with their net efficiencies:
Cadeau-Davis: +7.7 in 350 minutes
Davis-Trimble +13.0 in 124 minutes
Cadeau-Trimble: -1.7 in 59 minutes
Davis-Jackson: +0.2 in 46 minutes
But over the last 14 games, the Davis-Jackson backcourt has posted a sterling efficiency margin of +29.9 (albeit in only 37 minutes). Against Tier A&B competition, Davis-Trimble backcourts have shined (+12.1 in 84 minutes) while Cadeau-Trimble pairings have struggled (-35.8 in 31 minutes).
• Davis has been about equally efficient as a scorer during his minutes as a ‘1’ and ‘2’ this year. But his assist and steal rates have skyrocketed when he is running the point.
Davis as a ‘1’: 170 minutes, 21.0 Pts/40, 51.3 TS%, 9.0 Asst/40, 3.17 A:TO, 3.5 St%
Davis as a ‘2’: 380 minutes, 21.3 Pts/40, 52.0 TS%, 3.0 Asst/40, 1.50 A:TO, 1.6 St%
He has been at his best when running the point alongside Trimble, while the Davis-Jackson backcourts have not yet yielded efficient results for RJ as a scorer (albeit in a tiny sample).
Davis as a ‘1’ with Trimble: 124 minutes, 24.8 Pts/40, 59.3 TS%, 8.4 Asst/40, 3.25 A:TO, 3.4 St%
Davis as a ‘1’ with Jackson” 46 minutes, 10.5 Pts/40, 27.5 TS%, 10.5 Asst/40, 3.00 A:TO, 3.6 St%
• Trimble remains at his most dangerous when paired with both Cadeau (whose hit-ahead passes fuel Trimble’s transition offense) and Davis (whose halfcourt gravity creates space for Trimble to attack). His scoring rate, efficiency, and free throw rate are all much higher in the Cadeau+Davis minutes than in the time without both on the floor. He does see an uptick in assist rate when not sharing the court with both small guards, though.
Trimble with both Cadeau+Davis: 213 minutes, 19.9 Pts/40, 61.9 TS%, 1.7 Asst/40, 54.4 FTA Rate
Trimble without both Cadeau+Davis: 193 minutes, 14.9 Pts/40, 56.3 TS%, 2.9 Asst/40, 38.9 FTA Rate
• In 405 minutes against Tier A&B opponents (in which UNC has an overall efficiency margin of -4.2), Hubert Davis has used four separate frontcourt combinations for at least 50 minutes. Three of those pairings have basically broken even, while one has struggled from a plus/minus perspective.
Powell-Lubin: -1.3 in 87 minutes
Withers-Washington: -24.0 in 74 minutes
Powell-Washington: +1.3 in 63 minutes
Withers-Lubin: +1.1 in 58 minutes
Among the next group of frontcourts in terms of usage, a couple of promising pairings have potentially emerged:
Powell-Withers: +25.5 in 25 minutes
Tyson-Washington: -13.9 in 21 minutes
Tyson-Lubin: +46.6 in 18 minutes
Carolina needs Powell at the 3. Now I'm wondering how to play Jackson and Trimble at the same time. ...and Cadeau better step up his game or his minutes are gonna be hard to find.
