UNC ONLY BASKETBALL 2024-25 SEASON

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Bigs23 said:
Early lines are at 3.5.
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barttorvik had it at 4 and kenpom had it at 3. This Carolina team is better, and has played better, than many of their fans recognize, or for whatever reason, are willing to admit. Whatever gets you through the day, I guess.

Florida seems to be a really good team, but I don't think we know how good, because they have played an average schedule without any tough tests. They are 1-0 in Q1, 2-0 in Q2, and 7-0 in Q3 and Q4 (Carolina is 1-4 in Q1). Their toughest game so far was at Florida St. UF won by 13, but it was a 4 point game with less than 3 minutes to go. Florida hasn't played a top 50 team yet. Carolina has played 5 top 25 teams.

Florida starts 3 Srs (Clayton, Martin {final 4 w/FAU}, Richard) at the 1-2-3, and 1 guy off the bench (Aberdeen) gets most of the rest of those minutes. Clayton and Martin both are dangerous from 3, Richard takes and misses a lot so far this season, but is career 34.3% 3FG%. They have 4 bigs who each average 14-24 mins, all block shots, all really good on the offensive glass (UF is ELITE OR%), but Condon and Haugh are the bigger offensive threats and can both make 3s, and Condon draws a lot of fouls. UF is very good shooting (58.3%) and defending (42.5%) 2FGAs.

UF's numbers may be inflated because of their so-so schedule, but their aEO (122.3, 7th) and aDE (96.1, 22nd) are both really good. Florida is 7-3 against the spread. Carolina is 4-6 ATS.
 
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Hi Al Hood! Thanks for reading my observations!

BillOfRights said:
Some brief observations 10 games in:
...
RJ Davis has shot better than 33.3% 3FG% only once all season, 4/10 against Dayton. In addition to his MASSIVE drop off in offensive production, his defensive rating, which has been between 102.9 and 103.8 all 4 years, is currently at 108.8. Davis hasn't led the team in +/- a single game this season. His assists and steals are up marginally, but somethin' ain't right.
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"RJ Davis still isn’t right​

It was good to see Carolina easily win without a strong RJ Davis, but his 4-11 and 2-6 from three effort for only 13 points isn’t what you wanted to see in what was a “get right” game. But he still found other ways to contribute with a 5-1 assist to turnover ratio, and his defense led to a gorgeous steal and an outlet play.

Still, the game on Saturday doesn’t inspire a great amount of confidence that Davis has shaken whatever funk he has been in. He’s only shot 40% from three one time—against Dayton"

www.tarheelblog.com

UNC vs. LaSalle: Three Things Learned

The Tar Heels have a get right game.
www.tarheelblog.com www.tarheelblog.com
 
BillOfRights said:
barttorvik had it at 4 and kenpom had it at 3. This Carolina team is better, and has played better, than many of their fans recognize, or for whatever reason, are willing to admit. Whatever gets you through the day, I guess.

Florida seems to be a really good team, but I don't think we know how good, because they have played an average schedule without any tough tests. They are 1-0 in Q1, 2-0 in Q2, and 7-0 in Q3 and Q4 (Carolina is 1-4 in Q1). Their toughest game so far was at Florida St. UF won by 13, but it was a 4 point game with less than 3 minutes to go. Florida hasn't played a top 50 team yet. Carolina has played 5 top 25 teams.

Florida starts 3 Srs (Clayton, Martin {final 4 w/FAU}, Richard) at the 1-2-3, and 1 guy off the bench (Aberdeen) gets most of the rest of those minutes. Clayton and Martin both are dangerous from 3, Richard takes and misses a lot so far this season, but is career 34.3% 3FG%. They have 4 bigs who each average 14-24 mins, all block shots, all really good on the offensive glass (UF is ELITE OR%), but Condon and Haugh are the bigger offensive threats and can both make 3s, and Condon draws a lot of fouls. UF is very good shooting (58.3%) and defending (42.5%) 2FGAs.

UF's numbers may be inflated because of their so-so schedule, but their aEO (122.3, 7th) and aDE (96.1, 22nd) are both really good. Florida is 7-3 against the spread. Carolina is 4-6 ATS.
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Thanks for the hope.
 
BillOfRights said:
Looks like the line has moved to 4.5. People buying the Gators' hype, people expecting Carolina to continue to struggle, and ABCers piling on?
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If you believe UNC is flawed and UF is a better team right now (so far they have been) 3.5-4.5 isn't a lot. Where as a bet on UNC at this points feels like a bet on tails because it was heads the last time

Sure most of us are expecting RJ won't slump forever and the defense will improve some. The home court edge and SOS difference does make things more interesting

Like I said, haven't watched Florida yet, so not sure what their weaknesses are or how equipped UNC is to exploit them. Going to be a fun game
 
Not even drastically improve, I just want to see them stop making the same basic fundamental mistakes on the defensive end. (I also doubt they'd move on from HD, given they just hired a new football coach.) I will say, I'm not even sure they make the tourney this year.
 
Granville said:
With the pieces we have I’m not sure we can improve that much.
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They could try running a different offense, considering the high-ball screen won't work when you never really give it to the big on the screen. Or maybe try giving it to the big occasionally. And, there's no excuse for what we see on the defensive end. It doesn't take talent to be defensively sound.
 
Getting throat stomped again in the first half. It’s getting late, early.
Shall we mount another 2nd half come back… or just go ahead and fold the tent now?
 
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