Where do we go from here?

[superrific]

I agree with you that Dem messaging has been too sophisticated for the average voter. Dems need to develop the skill of KISS( keep it simple stupid )

If you cannot explain how you are going to help the voters in one sentence and limit the number of issues to emphasize to three, then they will get lost in the details and tune you out

This is why I was thinking about religion. Let's think about the problems with KISS -- namely, it's really hard to do without being reductionist, vapid and caricature-level simplistic. The amount of content that can be crammed into a sentence is quite small, and it's not nearly enough to capture complexity. That's why KISS is the natural approach of right-wingers. There's a famous Onion piece contrasting the messaging of Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan: "Let's all save energy by wearing sweaters" versus "kill the bastards."

But KISS becomes more effective when the single sentence explanation hearkens to a much larger and complex set of principles that people have come to intuitively understand through experience. Religion isn't the only one of them, but it's a main one. So what if we had an animating principle like:

Trumpism is not the way of God.

There's a lot more content there than meets the eye, because understanding the sentence requires an understanding of the "way of God," and that is a complex idea that encapsulates many different values. It's a way to sneak books and books of content into a single sentence.

By no means is religion the only language that can accomplish this, but it might be the most accessible for a non-college educated population.

 

[finesse]

I think that whether as part of the Democratic party or ,by my preference, on their own, the more mainstream Christians need to strongly and openly reject the Christian Nationalists and sympathizers on the right.

Fwiw, I want them to do it on their own because the more religion and politics mix, the worse they both become. Won't the Thirty Years War about the entanglements of state and religion in large part? Thought enough blood had been shed over this.

 

[CFordUNC]

Lololol under $360,000 huh? Going to be a whole lot of middle class Trump voters with this face:

 

[lawtig02]

Lololol under $360,000 huh? Going to be a whole lot of middle class Trump voters with this face:

Don't worry, Billy Bob from Tuscaloosa! It's all about to start trickling down!!!

 

[korgguy1971]

Lololol under $360,000 huh? Going to be a whole lot of middle class Trump voters with this face:

I've made a variation of this post (what follows below) half a dozen times now.

Everything unpopular will be blamed on the Dems/not-MAGA folks by right-wing media. They are the critical part of keeping this all going and - coupled with their already baked-in cultish denialism of non-MAGA reality - you can bet the farm the Trump supporters will eat that shit up. For the foreseeable future. The analogy I've used is the Oceania/Eurasia narrative pushed in 1984.

And sincerely, I would love to be wrong here and hope I am, but I don't think I will be.

 

[CFordUNC]

I've been thinking a lot about what comes next after Trump and as much as I know a lot of folks may find this to sound absurd while we are currently in the throes of Trump 2.0 stupidity, I truly do think that MAGA has a shelf life that is approaching expiration.

I think we are already finding out in real time that MAGA does not have a bench roster that’s capable of stepping in for Trump and winning national elections. Not one single other person in the MAGA movement has the winning combination of bluster, bravado, and lizard-brained charisma that Trump has. Hell, it can be reasonably argued that the only Republican who had a good day on Election Day was Donald Trump himself. The GOP lost all sorts of races downballot that they had no business losing in a year where the top of the ticket won only the second Republican popular vote in decades.

I truly think that Trump’s own incompetence will scatter the effectiveness of his efforts- we are already seeing it happening in real time as we speak with these absurdly outlandish cabinet appointments and the looming fight that he is picking with the GOP establishment in the Senate. I think that Trump's policies will likely make enough of a mess economically that he will lose one or both houses of Congress in 2026. Trump is much closer to the end than the beginning of his time, both politically and actuarially, and once he’s gone, I think that the most dangerous elements of MAGA will fizzle. Even a Ron DeSantis type, although I'd never, ever vote for someone like him, is much less prone to encouraging political violence and norm-busting than Trump, and we have already seen that the most shameless MAGA ballwashers flat out can’t win national elections on their own, IMO.

None of the above is intended to sound like hopium or to sound pollyanna-ish, but just my attempted take on what I personally think is realistic. Trump doesn't want to govern. He wants to enrich himself. The GOP *can't* govern- it's only effective as an oppositional out-party. There are a whole lot of people who are about to realize the hard way that all of that blustering and bullshitting about illegal immigrants, open borders, transgender people, and the like aren't going to reduce the price of eggs, aren't going to make housing more affordable, aren't going to make them and their families more prosperous, etc. And I'm not someone who is willing to buy the whole "well we might not have free and fair elections in 2028" thing. Yes, we will. And I also don't buy the "Trump is never going to voluntarily leave office." He won't have a choice. Not one single Democratically-led state, and likely all but the most hopeless of red states, are going to even participate in an election where the top of the ticket violates the Constitutional prohibition on a third term presidency.

TL;DR: this, too, shall pass. It may not be without tons of annoyance, or without quite a bit of hardship and suffering for certain groups, but it shall pass.

 

[superrific]

TL;DR: this, too, shall pass. It may not be without tons of annoyance, or without quite a bit of hardship and suffering for certain groups, but it shall pass.

Only if free and fair elections are preserved. And that's very much an open question right now. Trump and his transition team are naming exactly the people you'd expect to name if the goal was to end free and fair elections.

And that's probably because they realize that Trump has a limited shelf life. And that's why Elon jumped on board in 2024 and not earlier. He sees an opportunity here. He can't be president per the constitution, but he could be dictator if that's thrown out. Or more likely, he will be the kingmaker and wield power behind the scenes.

It also doesn't matter if Trump decides to abuse the adjourn Congress power that was included in the constitution only because legislators were only part-time and often had to return to their homes to do stuff like oversee the harvest, and one chamber could fuck with the other by denying a recess or scheduling it weirdly. If he's able to get away with that, then there will be no legislature at all and the 2026 elections will not matter.

 

[superrific]

I've made a variation of this post (what follows below) half a dozen times now.

Everything unpopular will be blamed on the Dems/not-MAGA folks by right-wing media. They are the critical part of keeping this all going and - coupled with their already baked-in cultish denialism of non-MAGA reality - you can bet the farm the Trump supporters will eat that shit up. For the foreseeable future. The analogy I've used is the Oceania/Eurasia narrative pushed in 1984.

And sincerely, I would love to be wrong here and hope I am, but I don't think I will be.

Maybe. I think it's different when it hits close to home. If inflation goes up to 15%, then maybe they will want to blame Dems but they will also be facing 15% inflation and they might draw the causal connection. Anyway, sure there will be some ride or die MAGAs but could the GOP gather even 40% of the vote if we have 15% inflation, 8% unemployment, and no safety net?

 

[CFordUNC]

Only if free and fair elections are preserved.

So I'm definitely going to reveal my ignorance of how elections work here, but wouldn't we just theoretically need free and fair elections to work in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and perhaps Arizona and North Carolina, all of which will have Democratic governors? Obviously if we don't have free and fair elections in the other 45 states, we have unfathomably big problems, but I just mean that strictly from a election integrity standpoint, what could be done to rig elections in those swing states where a Democratic governor presides?

 

[JCTarheel82]

Lololol under $360,000 huh? Going to be a whole lot of middle class Trump voters with this face:

Voting for your own financial demise to own the libs.

 

[CFordUNC]

Voting for your own financial demise to own the libs.

But Joe Middle Class swore that Kamala Harris was going to tax his unrealized capital gains!!

 

[superrific]

So I'm definitely going to reveal my ignorance of how elections work here, but wouldn't we just theoretically need free and fair elections to work in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and perhaps Arizona and North Carolina, all of which will have Democratic governors? Obviously if we don't have free and fair elections in the other 45 states, we have unfathomably big problems, but I just mean that strictly from a election integrity standpoint, what could be done to rig elections in those swing states where a Democratic governor presides?

It's not about rigging them per se, as in fucking with the tabulation machines. It's more subtle. Maybe they put troops at certain polling locations to depress turnout there, because voting ain't worth getting into a fight with the army. Or they bring criminal charges against Bluesky to shutter it during the election period, thus boosting Xitter. Or close Dem polling locations under pretext of a federal statute and require Dems to travel to other areas to vote. Or direct the USPS to lose ballots from certain zip codes.

Or they concoct BS criminal charges against Dem candidates.

Think of the election as a craps game. If the house loads the dice, it doesn't need to prevent anyone from rolling.

 

[CFordUNC]

Thought this was a really interesting read and very thought-provoking.

America doesn't really have a working class: Why class politics is unlikely to succeed where identity politics failed.​

America doesn't really have a working class

Why class politics is unlikely to succeed where identity politics failed.

www.noahpinion.blog

 

[finesse]

Thought this was a really interesting read and very thought-provoking.

America doesn't really have a working class: Why class politics is unlikely to succeed where identity politics failed.​

America doesn't really have a working class

Why class politics is unlikely to succeed where identity politics failed.

www.noahpinion.blog

Thanks. That captures a lot of what I've been feeling and gives me some angles to examine.

I think ultimately we going to reach a point where population growth is unnecessary for either protection, production or prosperity because of automation and computerization. Some people are going to be left behind and we might end up looking at some sort of basic minimum income and housing for those. Going to be interesting to see where that takes us.

 

[UNCatTech]

Lololol under $360,000 huh? Going to be a whole lot of middle class Trump voters with this face:

This is in project 2025.

I've been pointing this out for months and am very puzzled how many believe they will recieve a tax cut from Trump.

It's quite interesting thinking about the response from trumpers if Trump implements his tax plan.

 

[Paine]

Dan Osborn Wants to Help the Working Class Run for Office

Mr. Osborn, the industrial mechanic who turned a long-shot Senate bid in red Nebraska into an unexpectedly tight race, is starting a PAC aimed at recruiting more blue-collar candidates like himself.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Paine]

Thought this was a really interesting read and very thought-provoking.

America doesn't really have a working class: Why class politics is unlikely to succeed where identity politics failed.​

America doesn't really have a working class

Why class politics is unlikely to succeed where identity politics failed.

www.noahpinion.blog

Interesting read, though it will surprise no one that I disagree with the conclusion.

I tend to agree with super that all politics are identity politics now. Identity politics haven’t failed, more so that Democrats have wrapped themselves in the wrong identities. Identities that many people across the country see as counter to their own.

That is, being working class (or someone who works for a living, however you want to phrase it) is an identity in and of itself. It is an extremely powerful identity and one that unites people across racial and gender lines. We’ve seen this work throughout American history in other political movements.

 

[CFordUNC]

Interesting read, though it will surprise no one that I disagree with the conclusion.

I tend to agree with super that all politics are identity politics now. Identity politics haven’t failed, more so that Democrats have wrapped themselves in the wrong identities. Identities that many people across the country see as counter to their own.

That is, being working class (or someone who works for a living, however you want to phrase it) is an identity in and of itself. It is an extremely powerful identity and one that unites people across racial and gender lines. We’ve seen this work throughout American history in other political movements.

You know I appreciate your perspective and point of view!

 

[Paine]

You know I appreciate your perspective and point of view!

Of course! I came here to post this article from the Times, which is tangentially related.

Dan Osborn Wants to Help the Working Class Run for Office

Mr. Osborn, the industrial mechanic who turned a long-shot Senate bid in red Nebraska into an unexpectedly tight race, is starting a PAC aimed at recruiting more blue-collar candidates like himself.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Paine]

Of course! I came here to post this article from the Times, which is tangentially related.

Dan Osborn Wants to Help the Working Class Run for Office

Mr. Osborn, the industrial mechanic who turned a long-shot Senate bid in red Nebraska into an unexpectedly tight race, is starting a PAC aimed at recruiting more blue-collar candidates like himself.

www.nytimes.com

“‘Who’s the one doing the dividing here?’ Mr. Osborn asked in an interview on Monday. ‘I think it’s the people who are laughing all the way to the bank while us common folk live paycheck to paycheck.’

…Mainly, though, his biggest calling card was his genuine working-class identity and a penchant for listening. It wasn’t a particularly substantive campaign — he still struggles to articulate the policies that distinguished him from Republicans and Democrats — but it was one that avoided the impression that many Democrats leave, that in appealing to working-class voters, they talk down to them.”