2024 National & State Elections (Not POTUS)

I hope you are correct.

I fear for MI with the Islamic vote, WI as it gets older and whiter, and Pennsylvania because it really is Pennsyltucky.
I, too, have fears. BUT, at times Islamic women have/need abortion care, white women have/need abortion care, rural women have/need abortion care, and older women have children and grandchildren who have/need abortion care. Almost every adult woman I've spoken to on this issue has either had abortion care or had a close friend who did. Most are steamed about Dobbs and its aftermath. This is NOT an issue that pubs should want front and center in this or any other election.
 

Before anyone gets too excited about this data, using the simple assumption that all the new population added to any given county votes the same way the county voted in 2020, that data nets Trump 144K votes.
 
This is really bad news, on multiple fronts.

ETA: Kamala needs to be in Wisky ASAP. Maybe some surrogates like Buttigieg as well?
I have to work with these ratings weekly for work. The Baldwin news isn’t great, but Dems are still in good shape for the House. More ratings have been moving in their favor than against.
 
I have to work with these ratings weekly for work. The Baldwin news isn’t great, but Dems are still in good shape for the House. More ratings have been moving in their favor than against.
Yeah I'm more worried about what the Baldwin news suggests for Kamala's prospects in Wisconsin (and also if Baldwin loses the Senate is definitely gone).
 

Honestly I don't see how the Democrats take the Senate again for at least a decade, maybe two. Nearly all these states are baked in red.

1. Alaska
2. Idaho
3. Utah
4. Montana
5. Wyoming
6. ND
7. SD
8. Nebraska
9. Kansas
10. Oklahoma
11. Texas
12. Lousiana
13. Alabama
14. Mississippi
15. Indiana
16. Tennessee
17. Kentucky
18. WV
19. Ohio
20 South Carolina
21. Florida
22. Iowa
23. Missouri
24. Arkansas

And all you need is two pickups in any Swing state or blue state with Split Senate seats.

I know you can argue Texas and Florida are swing states, but I need to see it to believe it. Tester looks gone and they could lose Brown. Those would be two lost seats that are not coming back in probably at least 3 voting cycles or ever.
 
Honestly I don't see how the Democrats take the Senate again for at least a decade, maybe two. Nearly all these states are baked in red.

1. Alaska
2. Idaho
3. Utah
4. Montana
5. Wyoming
6. ND
7. SD
8. Nebraska
9. Kansas
10. Oklahoma
11. Texas
12. Lousiana
13. Alabama
14. Mississippi
15. Indiana
16. Tennessee
17. Kentucky
18. WV
19. Ohio
20 South Carolina
21. Florida
22. Iowa
23. Missouri
24. Arkansas

And all you need is two pickups in any Swing state or blue state with Split Senate seats.

I know you can argue Texas and Florida are swing states, but I need to see it to believe it. Tester looks gone and they could lose Brown. Those would be two lost seats that are not coming back in probably at least 3 voting cycles or ever.
The party is going to have to get creative. Either they can fashion a message that stays true to their core values as Dems while appealing to rural areas, or they can try running independent candidates who will caucus with Dems.

Obviously the first option is a tough ask for a number of reasons. The second option may bear fruit, we’ll see with Osborn in NE. The Democratic brand is just so toxic in these areas that independent or third-party candidates may be the only option.

Or abolishing the Senate of course.
 
When you look at all the evils in America that are baked into the Constitution as a result of accommodations made to the slave-holding class, slavery really does taken on the aura of the original sin of the United States. And the ill effects of that original sin are still with us today despite being over 230 years since the Constitution was ratified and nearly 160 years since the 13th Amendment was added. Apparently, it take more than just words on a piece of paper to rid America of its original sin. America has to want to be free of that original sin. But John 3:19 offers no encouragement, "And this is the judgment, that the light has come into the world, and people loved darkness rather than light because their deeds were evil."
 
When you look at all the evils in America that are baked into the Constitution as a result of accommodations made to the slave-holding class, slavery really does taken on the aura of the original sin of the United States. And the ill effects of that original sin are still with us today despite being over 230 years since the Constitution was ratified and nearly 160 years since the 13th Amendment was added. Apparently, it take more than just words on a piece of paper to rid America of its original sin. America has to want to be free of that original sin. But John 3:19 offers no encouragement, "And this is the judgment, that the light has come into the world, and people loved darkness rather than light because their deeds were evil."
 
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