2024 Political Polls

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Centerpiece said:
DON’T TRUST THE FRIGGIN’ Polls and prognostications.
Simply vote and haul all your friends and neighbors to the polling stations as well. Complacency thinking it’s in the bag will kill you. Remember 2016

apple.news

Don’t Trust the Election Forecasts — POLITICO

The data doesn’t support the obsession with presidential prognostications.
apple.news apple.news
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As I always say, "RUN through the tape!"

Tracee Ellis Ross Yes GIF by ABC Network
 
Bigs23 said:
He’ll likely try to steal it regardless.
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Trump's ego simply cannot handle spending hundreds of millions of dollars in order to lose to a black woman.

There is no way he will accept a loss here, even if it's a landslide.

My hope here is that his supporters will reach a critical mass after a loss, he'll become useless to them, and they will begin to see him as the loser clown conman he's aways been.
 
uncgriff said:
It would make for an early happy night. if he wins NC its over, don't need to wait for the central time zone
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Even if Harris wins NC, it is HIGHLY unlikely to be declared right win polls close. It would likely take several hours at least for a winner to be declared.
 
quakerdevil said:
To be fair we were dealing with an unprecedented amount of mail in voting in 2020. I'll be shocked if we don't know night of in November.
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Mail in voting can be easier to count quickly - depending upon the rules of the state.

But no close state is going to be called when the polls close. Unless the final margin is greater than 5%, it will take hours to call the race.
 
Calheel said:
Mail in voting can be easier to count quickly - depending upon the rules of the state.

But no close state is going to be called when the polls close. Unless the final margin is greater than 5%, it will take hours to call the race.
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We don't disagree. I'm saying that it won't take 4+ days this time because not nearly as many people will be voting by mail. By the Wednesday morning news shows, we'll know who won.
 
quakerdevil said:
We don't disagree. I'm saying that it won't take 4+ days this time because not nearly as many people will be voting by mail. By the Wednesday morning news shows, we'll know who won.
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For sure. But @uncgriff said Harris winning NC would make for an "early happy night" with no "need to wait for the central time zone." And that was a tad too optimistic, unless @uncgriff thinks 11 AM EST is an early night.
 
nycfan said:
politicalwire.com

Harris Leads Nationally in the Polling Averages

The polling averages all show Kamala Harris with a lead:RealClearPolitics: Harris +1.8 points538: Harris +3.2 pointsNate Silver: Harris +3.5 pointsThe Economist: Harris +3.5 points
politicalwire.com politicalwire.com

The polling averages all show Kamala Harris with a lead:

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The thing that scares me is a three and a half point margin of victory in the national popular vote, sets us up for heartbreak with the electoral college. As her lead in the popular vote grows, that should correlate with movement her way In the swing states, but in the end, how she does in those seven states is all that matters.
 
nycfan said:
More from USA Today:

“…
Among the biggest shifts since June, all outside the poll's margin of error:

  • Voters 18 to 34 years old moved from supporting Trump by 11 points to supporting Harris by 13 points, 49%-36%.
  • Hispanics, a group the Republican campaign has been cultivating, moved from supporting Trump by two points to supporting Harris by 16 points, 53%-37%.
  • Black voters, traditionally one of the most overwhelmingly Democratic groups, moved from supporting Biden by 47 points to supporting Harris by 64 points, 76%-12%. …”
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that + abortion is all she wrote.
 
UNCMSinLS said:
If the election is that close, Trump will try to steal it.
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He’s already trying to steal elections.

And, Republicans like Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, who profess to not like Trump and oppose his efforts to steal elections AFTER the votes are cast, will vote for Trump AND are all-in on suppressing the vote.
 
Zoo_View said:
He’s already trying to steal elections.

And, Republicans like Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, who profess to not like Trump and oppose his efforts to steal elections AFTER the votes are cast, will vote for Trump AND are all-in on suppressing the vote.
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my fantasy is Georgia shows their incompetence to govern by locking up their official count-but it has zero impact on the EC count outcome
 
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