2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[Kingpin]

That's certainly good news. I wonder how it compares to 2016 and 2020 in terms of the partisan breakdown?

I trust those will actually get counted fairly, unlike NC or GA.

 

[Milk and Cookies]

That's certainly good news. I wonder how it compares to 2016 and 2020 in terms of the partisan breakdown?

I'm trying to look this up now.

So far I've found that in the Nov 2022 election, 1.4 million mail and absentee ballots were requested with a reported "roughly 70%" being registered Dems.

The numbers in that tweet show a 63% share for Dems by comparison.

ETA: In 2020, PA had more than 3 million requests for ballots. Can't find the party breakdown yet.

 

[UNCBAdookJD]

I'm trying to look this up now.

So far I've found that in the Nov 2022 election, 1.4 million mail and absentee ballots were requested with a reported "roughly 70%" being registered Dems.

The numbers in that tweet show a 63% share for Dems by comparison.

ETA: In 2020, PA had more than 3 million requests for ballots. Can't find the party breakdown yet.

I also wouldn’t glean much from 2020 due to the pandemic.

 

[aGDevil2k]

I trust those will actually get counted fairly, unlike NC or GA.

Huh? Why NC?

 

[SnoopRob]

It’s obviously a close race that will come down to a few key states, and I certainly don’t want to jinx it, but I’d rather be Kamala entering the final month than Trump.

More money, momentum on her side, and more of a chance to add to her coalition than Trump.

I agree that I'd rather be Kamala than Trump right now. Things are going her way, she has actual growth/improvement potential, and she has more paths to victory than he does.

But I'm genuinely concerned that Trump has just enough support in the right places to just squeak out the wins where he really needs them.

(And my nightmare scenario is that Nebraska changes its apportionment law and we end up with a 269-269 EC tie despite Harris winning the popular vote that the House then throws to Trump. Not only do we have a second Trump term, but it occurs in a way that no one outside of MAGA will consider legitimate.)

 

[Bigs23]

America has spent enough time trying to convince themselves "principled" GOP officials still exist. Unfortunately, they've shown time and again that they're unwilling to put country over party.

I agree that I'd rather be Kamala than Trump right now. Things are going her way, she has actual growth/improvement potential, and she has more paths to victory than he does.

But I'm genuinely concerned that Trump has just enough support in the right places to just squeak out the wins where he really needs them.

(And my nightmare scenario is that Nebraska changes its apportionment law and we end up with a 269-269 EC tie despite Harris winning the popular vote that the House then throws to Trump. Not only do we have a second Trump term, but it occurs in a way that no one outside of MAGA will consider legitimate.)

That is definitely the. Doomsday Scenario but a LOT would have to happen.

Of course we’ve seen the end of some UNC/dook games where it all did happen.

 

[HeelYeah2012]

I agree that I'd rather be Kamala than Trump right now. Things are going her way, she has actual growth/improvement potential, and she has more paths to victory than he does.

But I'm genuinely concerned that Trump has just enough support in the right places to just squeak out the wins where he really needs them.

(And my nightmare scenario is that Nebraska changes its apportionment law and we end up with a 269-269 EC tie despite Harris winning the popular vote that the House then throws to Trump. Not only do we have a second Trump term, but it occurs in a way that no one outside of MAGA will consider legitimate.)

Out of curiosity, why would no one outside of MAGA consider it legitimate if the House decided a 269-269 election?

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

Yikes

 

[CallMeTyler]

Yikes

Okay NYT

 

[nycfan]

The NC polling pre-dates the Robinson scandal.

 

[nycfan]

 

[aGDevil2k]

On Morning Joe they reported that the Harris campaign feels good about:
Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and North Carolina

They feel Pennsylvania and Georgia are close. They feel they have work to do in Arizona.

 

[RockyMtnHoo]

Out of curiosity, why would no one outside of MAGA consider it legitimate if the House decided a 269-269 election?

Because the only way that likely happens is if Republicans change the rules 6 weeks before the election.

 

[dukeman92]

How is Pennsylvania so damn close...

 

[aGDevil2k]

How is Pennsylvania so damn close...

IMO because no one has an idea of how to model turnout. Enthusiasm tends to predict the winner. With her also leading on the change question, that is huge.

 

[altmin]

Yikes

Wait, so despite the debate, and fundraising advantage, and Trump basically hiding in mar a lago, Trump has had a +ten point shift in Arizona?


I beginning to think Sienna polling is just a monkey throwing darts.

 

[RockyMtnHoo]

How is Pennsylvania so damn close...

Maybe it wouldn’t have made a difference, but will be a lot of Monday Morning QB’ing over not picking Shapiro if she loses PA.

 

[lawtig02]

How is Pennsylvania so damn close...

Trump is basically all in on PA right now. It is helping him there but with his more limited resources and his much more scaled back appearance schedule, it is likely to hurt him elsewhere. NC is also high on their list now as can be seen by the flurry of recent appearances here, but Robinson will continue to be a huge problem for him in NC.

 

[dukeman92]

Maybe it wouldn’t have made a difference, but will be a lot of Monday Morning QB’ing over not picking Shapiro if she loses PA.

Call it hindsight or Monday morning QBing but I’ve said this all along. I really like Walz, he’s great and I have no doubt about his ability to do the job of VP. But I think she should have picked Shapiro.