2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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“This thing is a dead heat and is going to come down to the wire. These last three weeks matter,” said David Lee, a Republican pollster who worked on the survey with Democrat Michael Bocian.

“It really could not be closer,” Bocian said. “It’s an even-steven, tight, tight race.”

… The results suggest that Harris has a potential path to victory through the competitive Sunbelt states, a route that seemed foreclosed when President Biden led the Democratic ticket.

By 6 percentage points, more voters in Arizona are backing Harris now than supported Biden in a Journal survey in March. Her share of the vote has grown by 5 points in Georgia over Biden’s showing, and by 4 points in North Carolina.

By contrast, Trump’s share has changed little in the seven states, compared with March.

By 10 percentage points, more say Trump than Harris would be better at handling the economy—the issue that voters cite as most important to their choice of candidate. By 16 points, voters favor Trump for handling immigration and border security, the No. 2 issue of concern. …”
 
It is interesting to start to see the legit pollsters admit they have no idea what the voter turnout model may look like this year. They have always projected confidence, but I see so many caveats this year....
 
Calheel said:
Bouzy sucks.

And you nailed Cenk. He is one of the Young Turks, which is a popular progressive podcast. He attempted to run for the House and got absolutely smoked in the democratic primary (only got 7% of the vote). He laughed at the idea that Democrats would ever select Harris to replace Biden after the debate -- stating she had no chance. And while I would have preferred someone else, it shows his complete political ineptness to claim that Harris had no chance to get the nod.

And you are also right about early voting stats. They are next to worthless at this point.
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Yeah Bouzy rocks..
 
lol at the people who think Trump is better on the economy or border. Except this is not fun and games. The fact that people this stupid are allowed to vote is a travesty of epic proportions. If Kamala loses I will forever blame Biden I think for not pushing th DOJ to have eradicated this issue before now.
 
While this thread continues to make me nervous as hell on a daily basis, I still can’t help but think in the back of my mind that there will be a groundswell of voters on Harris’ side that aren’t captured by the polling.

Of course, this is probably more wishcasting on my part, but I just think that Trump has his base and won’t get above that, while there are so many issues like women’s rights that will bring out more voters than are being captured by the polls.
Pray Game Show GIF by ABC Network
 
CLT Heel said:
While this thread continues to make me nervous as hell on a daily basis, I still can’t help but think in the back of my mind that there will be a groundswell of voters on Harris’ side that aren’t captured by the polling.

Of course, this is probably more wishcasting on my part, but I just think that Trump has his base and won’t get above that, while there are so many issues like women’s rights that will bring out more voters than are being captured by the polls.
Pray Game Show GIF by ABC Network
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It's more than wishcasting when grassroots and small dollar donation surges are factual signs that polls may be missing something

They were the indicators 8 years ago...and we all ignored them because "polls" so....
 
Icky Mettle said:
From your previous posts, it sounds like you’re in Charlotte. Is that the house in the Belmont neighborhood, on Hawthorne near Belvedere? I’ve seen that “Anybody But Biden” sign there for about the past 4 years.
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Strangely enough, I think these signs were taken down the next day. I haven’t noticed them the last couple times I’ve been in Hawthorne
 
Awinisawin said:
lol at the people who think Trump is better on the economy or border. Except this is not fun and games. The fact that people this stupid are allowed to vote is a travesty of epic proportions. If Kamala loses I will forever blame Biden I think for not pushing th DOJ to have eradicated this issue before now.
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I mean you can't eradicate stupid/gullible/irrational, except long term through education (and even that can only do so much). People in the US and elsewhere have been falling for right-wing, anti-foreigner, ethno-nationalist messages from authoritarians for centuries now. It isn't a problem Biden or anyone else can easily solve, because you can't stop people from being stupid, gullible, or irrational.
 
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