2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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WaynetheDrain said:
I’m hoping it’s a red tilting poll, because the swing state general polls are scary.

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Polling averages. Look to the averages.

538 gives Kamala a 53% chance to win today. That's down from . . . 57% at her peak a week or two ago. That's not significant movement. It's just noise.
 
politicalwire.com

Ted Cruz Remains Ahead in Texas

A new Marist poll in Texas finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leading challenger Colin Allred (D), 51% to 46%.A new New York Times/Siena poll finds Cruz leading Allred, 48% to 44%.
politicalwire.com politicalwire.com

politicalwire.com

Sherrod Brown Narrowly Ahead in Tight Race

A new Washington Post poll in Ohio finds Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) just ahead of challenger Bernie Moreno (R), 48% to 47%.A new Marist poll finds Brown leading Moreno, 50% to 48%.
politicalwire.com politicalwire.com
 
superrific said:
I know nothing about Bouzy but isn't that Cenk dude one of the weirder and least reliable lefties on the internet?

BTW early voting numbers mean nothing, especially when they are only broken out by party.
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They mean SOMETHING about trends and potential enthusiasm

But not a forecast of what's to come
 
According to NBC News, as of October 9th 72% of the 266,000 early votes cast in Pennsylvania were cast by Democrats.
 
superrific said:
I know nothing about Bouzy but isn't that Cenk dude one of the weirder and least reliable lefties on the internet?

BTW early voting numbers mean nothing, especially when they are only broken out by party.
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Cenk has been wrong on his predictions more times than one can count. He drastically overvalues the impact that far left progressives have on the party, and also drastically undervalues their ability to compromise when faced with an existential threat like Donald Trump.
 
dukeman92 said:
According to NBC News, as of October 9th 72% of the 266,000 early votes cast in Pennsylvania were cast by Democrats.
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In related news, most Dems in PA live in cities. Weird Trump conspiracy musings aside, that's really what early voting numbers reflect. Folks in the sticks don't need to vote early because there are only like 200 people at their polling location to begin with. People in the Burgh or Philly vote early so they don't have to wait in potentially long lines and/or trudge through what can be unpleasant weather (especially in Pgh, according to my long time friend who has lived there for 20 years).
 
superrific said:
In related news, most Dems in PA live in cities. Weird Trump conspiracy musings aside, that's really what early voting numbers reflect. Folks in the sticks don't need to vote early because there are only like 200 people at their polling location to begin with. People in the Burgh or Philly vote early so they don't have to wait in potentially long lines and/or trudge through what can be unpleasant weather (especially in Pgh, according to my long time friend who has lived there for 20 years).
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Maybe

I vote early to get it over with. I wouldn't make assumptions. There's some truth of what you said but then you would see very similar % on most cycles
 
RockyMtnHoo said:
This is an example of the ridiculously high double standard Harris is held to. She doesn’t separate herself from a role she’s held for 4 years, or throw her boss under the bus…a boss who has a stellar record..and it’s a monumental mistake.

Trump shits on the Constitution and the foundation of our democracy daily, has the self control of a crazy/senile/racist/drunk uncle, and does & says things regularly that would have killed any other candidates’ chances years ago, and his polling improves.

Americans suck.
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I certainly agree that there is a ridiculously high double standard for Harris, and it infuriates me. But it's precisely because of that double standard that the answer she gave on The View worries me.

Biden does have a stellar record, especially on domestic issues. But then there's the disconnect between reality and perception...most Americans don't think he has a stellar record, due to the approval and direction-of-country polls. That's why I think Kamala's winning formula is to maintain messaging that paints a picture of a new, fresh way forward and avoid being seen as mainly a continuation of Biden.
 
aGDevil2k said:
Maybe

I vote early to get it over with. I wouldn't make assumptions. There's some truth of what you said but then you would see very similar % on most cycles
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We haven't had many cycles of data. Lots of these early voting laws were passed in the past decade. I think PA's dates from 2019, though I could be misremembering. And of course the pandemic altered voting patterns. But in general, early voting and no-excuse absentee has been implemented mostly in the last decade or so.
 
fsclark1 said:
I certainly agree that there is a ridiculously high double standard for Harris, and it infuriates me. But it's precisely because of that double standard that the answer she gave on The View worries me.

Biden does have a stellar record, especially on domestic issues. But then there's the disconnect between reality and perception...most Americans don't think he has a stellar record, due to the approval and direction-of-country polls. That's why I think Kamala's winning formula is to maintain messaging that paints a picture of a new, fresh way forward and avoid being seen as mainly a continuation of Biden.
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I'd bet that, like a lot of posters here, a lot of things worry you. That's fine. I'm not casting judgments. I'm certainly not one to lament others' anxieties.

But I don't think that answer on the View is going to make much difference. The View is not all that widely watched (it gets about 2M views an episode) and its audience is more liberal and more educated than average. It's not as if she can run from Biden, and if she singles out one issue it will be repeated non-stop.

The reason that American politics looks the way it does is that the GOP does its best to make government suck. So voters always hate the government, and thus do voters always want change. "Change" has been a positive political term for the last 30 years at least. Even in 96, the Republicans were trying to run Dole as the candidate of change until they realized that nobody was going to buy into that shit (remember, that was before Fox News).

And thus, the successor candidates from a political administration fare poorly. Bush 41 won once, but then Clinton became the fresh new face and he won. But then Gore became as status quo and lost to a fucking moron. It's not as if he could criticize Clinton, because that would boomerang on him. So despite Clinton having an excellent presidency overall, and the country in really good shape at the time, Gore lost. Bush 43's successor candidate got demolished, though that dynamic is a bit different because the US was in completely awful shape during that election season. But then HRC lost too to an even more morony moron. It's really hard to thread the needle in Kamala's position.
 
fsclark1 said:
I certainly agree that there is a ridiculously high double standard for Harris, and it infuriates me. But it's precisely because of that double standard that the answer she gave on The View worries me.

Biden does have a stellar record, especially on domestic issues. But then there's the disconnect between reality and perception...most Americans don't think he has a stellar record, due to the approval and direction-of-country polls. That's why I think Kamala's winning formula is to maintain messaging that paints a picture of a new, fresh way forward and avoid being seen as mainly a continuation of Biden.
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It is smart strategically for her to create some separation with Biden. The reasoning and logic don’t matter, Biden is unpopular. There is a wide gulf between “what would you have done different” and “throw him under the bus.” It’s a missed opportunity, no doubt.
 
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