2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[mpaer]

Now this is much closer to the mark...

From a guy that breeds with a porn star

 

[BillOfRights]

I'm glad the polling is so close. I'd even wager to say that polling will keep everyone alert and focused on voting. If huge leads drove complacency, that could only help Trump and I would prefer we avoid the whole 2016 scenario. Although with early voting showing strong turnout, new voter registrations showing record turnout, and significant fundraising for Kamala, I like the direction we're in.

Add in Republican's enthusiasm waning relative to Democrats and I'm leaning towards a more hopeful conclusion to this election.

You give me hope.

 

[nycfan]

 

[rodoheel]

What's the bias of this pollster? Those all look like very good numbers for Dems except Casey's race is awfully tight.

 

[WaynetheDrain]

I’m hoping it’s a red tilting poll, because the swing state general polls are scary.

 

[uncjhodges]

This country deserves to collapse. So fucking stupid, I hate it

 

[Macksbrownies]

The state of fascination requires a level of curiosity and aesthetic appreciation (indeed, fascination may be the seed of aesthetic appreciation in children) that Trump manifestly does not possess..

Hitler was also “fascinated” with genetics.

 

[nycfan]

I’m hoping it’s a red tilting poll, because the swing state general polls are scary.

The Hill polls tend to be R-leaning, though generally Emerson College polling is considered neutral. Not sure how to view this collaboration.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Ignore the tweeter but the Michigan data is interesting

 

[superrific]

I’m hoping it’s a red tilting poll, because the swing state general polls are scary.

Polling averages. Look to the averages.

538 gives Kamala a 53% chance to win today. That's down from . . . 57% at her peak a week or two ago. That's not significant movement. It's just noise.

 

[superrific]

Ignore the tweeter but the Michigan data is interesting

I know nothing about Bouzy but isn't that Cenk dude one of the weirder and least reliable lefties on the internet?

BTW early voting numbers mean nothing, especially when they are only broken out by party.

 

[nycfan]

A new New York Times/Siena poll in Florida finds Sen. Rick Scott (R) leading challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), 49% to 40%.

A new Marist poll finds Scott leading Mucarsel-Powell by a smaller margin, 50% to 48%.

Political Wire

All the political news in one place

politicalwire.com

Pollsters REALLY don't agree about margins in Florida, though they seem to agree on outcome.

 

[nycfan]

Ted Cruz Remains Ahead in Texas

A new Marist poll in Texas finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leading challenger Colin Allred (D), 51% to 46%.A new New York Times/Siena poll finds Cruz leading Allred, 48% to 44%.

politicalwire.com

Sherrod Brown Narrowly Ahead in Tight Race

A new Washington Post poll in Ohio finds Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) just ahead of challenger Bernie Moreno (R), 48% to 47%.A new Marist poll finds Brown leading Moreno, 50% to 48%.

politicalwire.com

 

[aGDevil2k]

I know nothing about Bouzy but isn't that Cenk dude one of the weirder and least reliable lefties on the internet?

BTW early voting numbers mean nothing, especially when they are only broken out by party.

They mean SOMETHING about trends and potential enthusiasm

But not a forecast of what's to come

 

[dukeman92]

According to NBC News, as of October 9th 72% of the 266,000 early votes cast in Pennsylvania were cast by Democrats.

 

[WaynetheDrain]

I know nothing about Bouzy but isn't that Cenk dude one of the weirder and least reliable lefties on the internet?

BTW early voting numbers mean nothing, especially when they are only broken out by party.

Cenk has been wrong on his predictions more times than one can count. He drastically overvalues the impact that far left progressives have on the party, and also drastically undervalues their ability to compromise when faced with an existential threat like Donald Trump.

 

[superrific]

According to NBC News, as of October 9th 72% of the 266,000 early votes cast in Pennsylvania were cast by Democrats.

In related news, most Dems in PA live in cities. Weird Trump conspiracy musings aside, that's really what early voting numbers reflect. Folks in the sticks don't need to vote early because there are only like 200 people at their polling location to begin with. People in the Burgh or Philly vote early so they don't have to wait in potentially long lines and/or trudge through what can be unpleasant weather (especially in Pgh, according to my long time friend who has lived there for 20 years).

 

[aGDevil2k]

In related news, most Dems in PA live in cities. Weird Trump conspiracy musings aside, that's really what early voting numbers reflect. Folks in the sticks don't need to vote early because there are only like 200 people at their polling location to begin with. People in the Burgh or Philly vote early so they don't have to wait in potentially long lines and/or trudge through what can be unpleasant weather (especially in Pgh, according to my long time friend who has lived there for 20 years).

Maybe

I vote early to get it over with. I wouldn't make assumptions. There's some truth of what you said but then you would see very similar % on most cycles

 

[fsclark1]

This is an example of the ridiculously high double standard Harris is held to. She doesn’t separate herself from a role she’s held for 4 years, or throw her boss under the bus…a boss who has a stellar record..and it’s a monumental mistake.

Trump shits on the Constitution and the foundation of our democracy daily, has the self control of a crazy/senile/racist/drunk uncle, and does & says things regularly that would have killed any other candidates’ chances years ago, and his polling improves.

Americans suck.

I certainly agree that there is a ridiculously high double standard for Harris, and it infuriates me. But it's precisely because of that double standard that the answer she gave on The View worries me.

Biden does have a stellar record, especially on domestic issues. But then there's the disconnect between reality and perception...most Americans don't think he has a stellar record, due to the approval and direction-of-country polls. That's why I think Kamala's winning formula is to maintain messaging that paints a picture of a new, fresh way forward and avoid being seen as mainly a continuation of Biden.

 

[superrific]

Maybe

I vote early to get it over with. I wouldn't make assumptions. There's some truth of what you said but then you would see very similar % on most cycles

We haven't had many cycles of data. Lots of these early voting laws were passed in the past decade. I think PA's dates from 2019, though I could be misremembering. And of course the pandemic altered voting patterns. But in general, early voting and no-excuse absentee has been implemented mostly in the last decade or so.