2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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RockyMtnHoo said:
This is an example of the ridiculously high double standard Harris is held to. She doesn’t separate herself from a role she’s held for 4 years, or throw her boss under the bus…a boss who has a stellar record..and it’s a monumental mistake.

Trump shits on the Constitution and the foundation of our democracy daily, has the self control of a crazy/senile/racist/drunk uncle, and does & says things regularly that would have killed any other candidates’ chances years ago, and his polling improves.

Americans suck.
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I certainly agree that there is a ridiculously high double standard for Harris, and it infuriates me. But it's precisely because of that double standard that the answer she gave on The View worries me.

Biden does have a stellar record, especially on domestic issues. But then there's the disconnect between reality and perception...most Americans don't think he has a stellar record, due to the approval and direction-of-country polls. That's why I think Kamala's winning formula is to maintain messaging that paints a picture of a new, fresh way forward and avoid being seen as mainly a continuation of Biden.
 
aGDevil2k said:
Maybe

I vote early to get it over with. I wouldn't make assumptions. There's some truth of what you said but then you would see very similar % on most cycles
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We haven't had many cycles of data. Lots of these early voting laws were passed in the past decade. I think PA's dates from 2019, though I could be misremembering. And of course the pandemic altered voting patterns. But in general, early voting and no-excuse absentee has been implemented mostly in the last decade or so.
 
fsclark1 said:
I certainly agree that there is a ridiculously high double standard for Harris, and it infuriates me. But it's precisely because of that double standard that the answer she gave on The View worries me.

Biden does have a stellar record, especially on domestic issues. But then there's the disconnect between reality and perception...most Americans don't think he has a stellar record, due to the approval and direction-of-country polls. That's why I think Kamala's winning formula is to maintain messaging that paints a picture of a new, fresh way forward and avoid being seen as mainly a continuation of Biden.
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I'd bet that, like a lot of posters here, a lot of things worry you. That's fine. I'm not casting judgments. I'm certainly not one to lament others' anxieties.

But I don't think that answer on the View is going to make much difference. The View is not all that widely watched (it gets about 2M views an episode) and its audience is more liberal and more educated than average. It's not as if she can run from Biden, and if she singles out one issue it will be repeated non-stop.

The reason that American politics looks the way it does is that the GOP does its best to make government suck. So voters always hate the government, and thus do voters always want change. "Change" has been a positive political term for the last 30 years at least. Even in 96, the Republicans were trying to run Dole as the candidate of change until they realized that nobody was going to buy into that shit (remember, that was before Fox News).

And thus, the successor candidates from a political administration fare poorly. Bush 41 won once, but then Clinton became the fresh new face and he won. But then Gore became as status quo and lost to a fucking moron. It's not as if he could criticize Clinton, because that would boomerang on him. So despite Clinton having an excellent presidency overall, and the country in really good shape at the time, Gore lost. Bush 43's successor candidate got demolished, though that dynamic is a bit different because the US was in completely awful shape during that election season. But then HRC lost too to an even more morony moron. It's really hard to thread the needle in Kamala's position.
 
fsclark1 said:
I certainly agree that there is a ridiculously high double standard for Harris, and it infuriates me. But it's precisely because of that double standard that the answer she gave on The View worries me.

Biden does have a stellar record, especially on domestic issues. But then there's the disconnect between reality and perception...most Americans don't think he has a stellar record, due to the approval and direction-of-country polls. That's why I think Kamala's winning formula is to maintain messaging that paints a picture of a new, fresh way forward and avoid being seen as mainly a continuation of Biden.
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It is smart strategically for her to create some separation with Biden. The reasoning and logic don’t matter, Biden is unpopular. There is a wide gulf between “what would you have done different” and “throw him under the bus.” It’s a missed opportunity, no doubt.
 
Awinisawin said:
Every time I check into this board I find something worrisome and depressing. How can the polls be this close. CNN headline saying big swing in trumps favor. What tf are people actually seeing that they feel is worthwhile in this person. Jeebus we are so screwed
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projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Up from 53% yesterday, down from 58% last week. It's all noise. Don't pay attention. And if polls worry and depress you, then don't read this thread. Looking at individual polls is a great way to lose your mind. Focus on the averages.
 
Awinisawin said:
Every time I check into this board I find something worrisome and depressing. How can the polls be this close. CNN headline saying big swing in trumps favor. What tf are people actually seeing that they feel is worthwhile in this person. Jeebus we are so screwed
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There is no big swing in Trump’s favor. If you weren’t worried in the days after the debate, you shouldn’t be worried now. Her polling hasn’t changed in weeks.
 
fsclark1 said:
I certainly agree that there is a ridiculously high double standard for Harris, and it infuriates me. But it's precisely because of that double standard that the answer she gave on The View worries me.

Biden does have a stellar record, especially on domestic issues. But then there's the disconnect between reality and perception...most Americans don't think he has a stellar record, due to the approval and direction-of-country polls. That's why I think Kamala's winning formula is to maintain messaging that paints a picture of a new, fresh way forward and avoid being seen as mainly a continuation of Biden.
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That double standard… When I get into discussions with Trumpies on Facebook, I ask them to apply the same thing s they’re saying about a Harris to Trump. They never do, of course.
 
WaynetheDrain said:
Any of you guys disappointed in Kamala for not throwing Biden under the bus don't really understand who Kamala Harris is.
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I would have answered the question this way:
Absolutely. The MAGAs have obstructed every step of the way. There are many bills they have blocked, their activist supreme court has shown the importance of getting our justices on the court. Not only do voters need to elect us, they need to vote for our senators and house representatives so that we can get to work. We've been working day and night to bring affordable housing, student debt relief, minimum wage increases and tax relief to working families and MAGAs do nothing but obstruct.
 
superrific said:
I know nothing about Bouzy but isn't that Cenk dude one of the weirder and least reliable lefties on the internet?

BTW early voting numbers mean nothing, especially when they are only broken out by party.
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Bouzy sucks.

And you nailed Cenk. He is one of the Young Turks, which is a popular progressive podcast. He attempted to run for the House and got absolutely smoked in the democratic primary (only got 7% of the vote). He laughed at the idea that Democrats would ever select Harris to replace Biden after the debate -- stating she had no chance. And while I would have preferred someone else, it shows his complete political ineptness to claim that Harris had no chance to get the nod.

And you are also right about early voting stats. They are next to worthless at this point.
 
“This thing is a dead heat and is going to come down to the wire. These last three weeks matter,” said David Lee, a Republican pollster who worked on the survey with Democrat Michael Bocian.

“It really could not be closer,” Bocian said. “It’s an even-steven, tight, tight race.”

… The results suggest that Harris has a potential path to victory through the competitive Sunbelt states, a route that seemed foreclosed when President Biden led the Democratic ticket.

By 6 percentage points, more voters in Arizona are backing Harris now than supported Biden in a Journal survey in March. Her share of the vote has grown by 5 points in Georgia over Biden’s showing, and by 4 points in North Carolina.

By contrast, Trump’s share has changed little in the seven states, compared with March.

By 10 percentage points, more say Trump than Harris would be better at handling the economy—the issue that voters cite as most important to their choice of candidate. By 16 points, voters favor Trump for handling immigration and border security, the No. 2 issue of concern. …”
 
It is interesting to start to see the legit pollsters admit they have no idea what the voter turnout model may look like this year. They have always projected confidence, but I see so many caveats this year....
 
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