2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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lawtig02 said:
Trump is strong with low-propensity voters. Kamala is strong with high-propensity voters. If we turn out, we win. It's as simple as that.
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Uh……high-propensity voters turn out. They vote in school board elections.

If truly low-propensity voters turn out, that could be good news for Trump and the GOP.
 
Zoo_View said:
Uh……high-propensity voters turn out. They vote in school board elections.

If truly low-propensity voters turn out, that could be good news for Trump and the GOP.
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Yeah, my post must be inarticulate because you and Calheel both had that response. The point I was trying to make is that I’m not at all sure polling is accurately accounting for voting propensities among the groups in Trump’s and Kamala’s respective buckets. The only problem would be if Trump’s groups overperform and Kamala’s don’t show up for some reason. I don’t think that will happen, so it probably wasn’t a point worth mentioning.
 
My household gets several polling phone calls a week. We don't participate. I don't have any idea who does-obviously many do-I don't know what the group that does "skews " towards ?
 
mpaer said:
My household gets several polling phone calls a week. We don't participate. I don't have any idea who does-obviously many do-I don't know what the group that does "skews " towards ?
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Never have gotten one in my life
 
nycfan said:
politicalwire.com

Harris Maintains Narrow National Lead

Kamala Harris held a marginal 3-percentage-point lead over Donald Trump -- 45% to 42% -- as the two stayed locked in a tight race to win the presidential election, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll found.
politicalwire.com politicalwire.com
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nyc, can you find the data for this one? 13% of a LV sample not choosing Kamala or Trump makes no sense to me 21 days out from the election. I’m wondering how that group is responding but I can’t find the breakdown.
 
lawtig02 said:
nyc, can you find the data for this one? 13% of a LV sample not choosing Kamala or Trump makes no sense to me 21 days out from the election. I’m wondering how that group is responding but I can’t find the breakdown.
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It was released yesterday but as far as I can tell they haven’t released the cross-tabs. The Reuters/Ipsos poll has a history of high undecided totals with their method, though.

“…
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed 938 U.S. adults online, nationwide, including 807 registered voters. Among these, 769 were considered the most likely to turn out on Election Day. Among these likely voters, Harris held a 3-percentage-point lead over Trump, 47% to 44%. …”


They had Harris up 46-43 in their earlier October poll and 44-38 in late September.
 
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