2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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gtyellowjacket said:
There have been bookies that would take that bet in most large American cities for probably as long as we have had a country but there's no research on it.

Newsweek found some research back to 1980, but I don't think they cite the study in the article. You could probably Google it and find it if you want.
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So in other words, you haven't seen any study cited that backs up your claim that the betting markets are superior to polling in predicting the outcome of the election...
 
hedge said:
So in other words, you haven't seen any study cited that backs up your claim that the betting markets are superior to polling in predicting the outcome of the election...
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Correct.

I’d also add cons associated with online betting, as cited by betting sites themselves. Interestingly, all things we’re seeing in this particular cycle (sharks dropping huge bets in one direction, Trump bets overly-represented, etc.

CONS:​

  • Market manipulation is possible if some sharks make huge bets that sway the odds in a certain direction, such as when someone bet at least $4 million on Mitt Romney in the 2012 election. It is also possible that the population of bettors are not evenly distributed among Democrats, Republicans, and independents, giving one side an advantage.
  • While updating for current news can be good, sometimes that is an overreaction, such as Trump’s guilty verdict this year. After 2 weeks, his odds are right back to where they were before the verdict was read.
  • Live betting odds in 2020 grossly overestimated Trump’s chances of winning on election night as the mail-in votes, which were largely done by Joe Biden voters, were not counted until later, which led to Biden’s victory.
  • Since the odds are just for the winner, it may not be reflecting the state-wide odds properly in the swing states that should ultimately decide the election winner.
 
LosPollosHermanos said:
Trump was 8 to 1 in 2016. There were people putting their entire bankroll on Hillary thinking it was free money. I mean they had to put up like $1000 to win $150 but they thought there was no way she could lose so they did it. Lots of people went broke.
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I'm skeptical that anyone went broke betting on Hillary in 2016...
 
theel4life said:
Bouzy has been pretty spot on so far. He was one of the only ones who called the blue wave in 2022.
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So now, after spraying the board with caterwauling guarantees (more or less) that we're 2 weeks away from Trump being elected, you're touting Bouzy, who is basically calling for a Harris landslide. If you think Bouzy is spot-on, why are you worried? And aren't you the poster who was also literally guaranteeing Biden was going to win even after his disastrous debate performance and that it would be a disastrous move for him to step aside? If that wasn't you, disregard that last question, but if it was you all I can say is put down the crack pipe. You're all over the place, even on the same day and in the same thread...
 
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hedge said:
So now, after spraying the board with caterwauling guarantees (more or less) that we're 2 weeks away from Trump being elected, you're touting Bouzy, who is basically calling for a Harris landslide. If you think Bouzy is spot-on, why are you worried? And aren't you the poster who was also literally guaranteeing Biden was going to win even after his disastrous debate performance and that it would be a disastrous move for him to step aside? If that wasn't you, disregard that last question, but was you all I can say is put down the crack pipe. You're all over the place, even on the same day and in the same thread...
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Bro I have a strategy.
James Franco Flirt GIF
 
Paine said:
I know you had said you’re from Wilson; I had meant to ask you what part of it you were from a while ago.
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I'm a city boy, but have family in the county and also put in 'baccer every summer starting in 8th grade thru high school, so I know the county/"country" pretty well. Also, to respond to your post about the city leaning blue but not the county, that may or may not be true. Wilson County has gone for the Dem candidate in the past 4 presidential elections. I can't find any data on just the city of Wilson voting, so it's certainly possible that the city vote overrode the county vote, but who knows? But Wilson County as a whole (along with some of the surrounding counties - Edgecombe, Nash, Pitt) has been reliably Dem for several cycles now..
 
The story about the Dems picking up some ground with non-college whites is interesting in light of their losing few points amongst blacks and other people of color. Will those cancel each other out? Or does one party come out on top?
 
aGDevil2k said:
I dont belive Bouzy on Florida. And I dont believe Trump is winning it by 10 points either
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I've gotten to the point that I just don't trust polls in this election cycle, period, and I'm equally skeptical of trying to analyze early voting returns. They seem to be all over the place, especially in swing states. Trump leads in FL by double digits, Trump leads in FL by just two percent, etc. And given that in 2020 we had covid and most voters voted early, comparing this year's early voting results with 2020 may lead to some very inaccurate conclusions. So early voting in Georgia is up? Does that mean that more Democrats are voting this cycle, or is Trump's base yet again turning out in huge numbers? At this point I just wish I could avoid hearing it all until election day and see what the results actually say, if then.
 
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