2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden
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I wonder how many Indys have voted early ?
I wonder how many Dems have voted early for Trump ?
I wonder how many republicans have voted early for Kamala ?
superrific
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OK, y'all, Nate Cohn's comments on the last NYT survey should be appreciated in full. And I will add one more example to the shift he describes: the Times poll had Trump running about 9 points better in NYC than in previous years. Thus:
***--- National Polls Do Not Matter ---***
Because the race is so close in the swing states, campaigns are paying little to no attention to other less competitive states. And Trump is running wild in places where his base support is strong. Good for him. It's pushing his national polling numbers up. It does nothing for him in the EC.
National polls are only relevant when there is a predictable partisan lean for the swing states. But that partisan lean is not predictable this year. And pretty much everything I've read says to trust the state polls over the national polls this late in the race -- well, the swing state polls because there are so many of them.
We do not need a popular vote cushion. Trump could win the popular vote and lose the EC. I don't know why people are assuming that's impossible. Remember, the main factor in creating the Dems' EC deficit was that the most populous state has been a blue landslide state, but the third most populous state was a pink state just out of reach. OK, knock about 5 points off Dem performance in CA and add 5 to FL and the EC issue starts to dissipate real quick.
Pretty much everyone is acknowledging this now. It was only Nate Cohn a month ago. The swing states are largely unmoored from the national trends, at least at the closeness levels that we care about. If the national polls move by 7, I'd expect the swing states to move and there's no real difference if they move by 5, 7 or 9. But if the national polls move by a point, and the swing states move by a fraction of that -- which is what we care about -- then it's nothing.
***--- National Polls Do Not Matter ---***
Because the race is so close in the swing states, campaigns are paying little to no attention to other less competitive states. And Trump is running wild in places where his base support is strong. Good for him. It's pushing his national polling numbers up. It does nothing for him in the EC.
National polls are only relevant when there is a predictable partisan lean for the swing states. But that partisan lean is not predictable this year. And pretty much everything I've read says to trust the state polls over the national polls this late in the race -- well, the swing state polls because there are so many of them.
We do not need a popular vote cushion. Trump could win the popular vote and lose the EC. I don't know why people are assuming that's impossible. Remember, the main factor in creating the Dems' EC deficit was that the most populous state has been a blue landslide state, but the third most populous state was a pink state just out of reach. OK, knock about 5 points off Dem performance in CA and add 5 to FL and the EC issue starts to dissipate real quick.
Pretty much everyone is acknowledging this now. It was only Nate Cohn a month ago. The swing states are largely unmoored from the national trends, at least at the closeness levels that we care about. If the national polls move by 7, I'd expect the swing states to move and there's no real difference if they move by 5, 7 or 9. But if the national polls move by a point, and the swing states move by a fraction of that -- which is what we care about -- then it's nothing.
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What's he's said in the past is basically "my family and I were better off financially under Trump, and that's the thing I care about the most"
CallMeTyler
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That’s his public, PR-rendered position. Anyone voting for Trump, after so many vile, treacherous things he’s said and done, cannot only care about their alleged financial fortunes (which doesn’t hold up) under Trump.
HY is too cowardly to own his real reasons publicly.
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You voted for Donald Trump and Hal Leatherman. Mark Robinson, Dan Bishop, and Michelle Morrow are a bridge too far for you but you happily vote for people just as bad or worse. Maybe you should sit this out rather than offering your nonsensical “analysis.”
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I suspect that his family was not financially better off under Trump compared to today...
lawtig02
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And if they're not, that's almost entirely the result of insufficient action on teacher pay by the Pubs controlling the NC legislature, and not anything at the national level.
UNCRx85
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Wonder how he expects Trump placing 10-20% tariffs on everything to effect his family's financials...
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Well he also thinks that Vivek Ramaswamy's pet idea of eliminating the Department of Education and/or cutting its budget by 75% will be a boon for teachers, so....
Part of his logic before (Probably 2+ years ago at this point) had to do with his dad's small business. Basically said his dad and all the other guys like him were happy and optimistic and rich during Trump's presidency and depressed and not investing money in their businesses because of Biden's socialism or whatever.
lawtig02
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Yeah, I can't imagine what happened circa 2020-21 that might have had a disproportionate impact on small businesses. Clearly Dems' fault, though.
RockyMtnHoo
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I’m my completely unscientific opinion, I believe the reason we’re seeing things look so close right now, is most of the voting public don’t follow politics like we do on this board.
Joe Citizen who is “undecided” sees that groceries and gas were cheaper pre-COVID, and we didn’t end up in World War 3 with Trump the first time, so they’re strongly considering voting for him to get back to that.
Joe Citizen who is “undecided” sees that groceries and gas were cheaper pre-COVID, and we didn’t end up in World War 3 with Trump the first time, so they’re strongly considering voting for him to get back to that.
uncgriff
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So we are simply too stupid as a country to be a democracy anymore. That's ok. There are lots of countries that are better off under an autocracy. Maybe we have reached that point.
lawtig02
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While this is certainly correct, I can't for the life of me understand why so many people are willing to pretend Trump's presidency ended on March 1, 2020.
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And that's still a 1000x better take than the time he thought UNC or someone from UNC was paying Kerwin Walton to leave. Talk about a questionable read on things (and that's putting it nicely).
superrific
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I can't follow what Elliott Morris is trying to argue there. Too many weird statistics that are percentages of one thing against another. Some thoughts:
1. Of all the swing states, Arizona is the one looking the worst. This should not be a surprise. Again, this is a state that has voted for a Dem twice since Truman, and one of those was 2020 and it was super-close. It is a purple state but more red than blue. I've been fooled in the past thinking, "but Dems have all statewide offices!" and while that's true, it's only barely because Katie Hobbs squeaked by Kari Lake. And there are western states where the presidential vote is more red than the state level votes.
But there is also good news here. AZ is where the Turning Point USA GOTV effort got off the ground. They were going to do it nationally and that busted, which is why Musk had to step in last minute. But they did get something going in AZ. So if AZ is doing well with turnout . . . well, that suggests ground game matters. And that's a good thing too, because we have a better ground game almost everywhere.
The other thing to ponder is that Arizona doesn't matter much. The only circumstance where AZ becomes relevant is if Kamala loses NC, GA and WI. Or, I suppose, if Kamala wins NC or GA and then loses MI.
2. In NC, I'd say things look good with the one exception of black turnout. The black vote turnout increased against white turnout by like 0.1% yesterday, so black turnout is still about 8 points lower than white turnout. On the plus side, though, Latino turnout is pretty so far, which is good because it lets those voters digest what happened in MSG and perhaps reconsider whether they want to support these fuckers.
3. I am as confident or more in MI as I am pessimistic about AZ. Remember: the MI GOP is a complete shit show. Probably the worst and most ineffective state party in this century, at least in terms of states that matter. The polls have looked good in MI -- there are more "outliers" in MI than anywhere else I've seen (Bullfinch +8, and the one posted above +4), which is important in a world of pollster herding. The GOTV in MI is strong on the Dems' side and probably weak as hell on the Pubs side.
4. So in this regard, the race has not changed in a month. The Dems have to win PA. That's it. If we do, we probably carry the election. If we don't, it's going to be tough. I've seen nothing from PA that would cause me to be concerned, other than the overall closeness of the polls which has been there for a while.
The cause in PA was helped by the state Supreme Court's ruling last week. About three weeks ago, the PA Supreme Court decided a case in a way that meant county election boards cannot count votes where the meaningless inner ballot wasn't marked correctly. That was bad. But last week, the PA Supreme Court ruled that voters whose absentee ballots weren't going to be counted could be notified of such and cast provisional ballots that will be counted. But that process -- notification and cure -- is not mandatory on counties. The big city election boards had already been doing that. The smaller counties weren't. You can see which way this will cut. Only a fraction of a percent, but again it's something.
1. Of all the swing states, Arizona is the one looking the worst. This should not be a surprise. Again, this is a state that has voted for a Dem twice since Truman, and one of those was 2020 and it was super-close. It is a purple state but more red than blue. I've been fooled in the past thinking, "but Dems have all statewide offices!" and while that's true, it's only barely because Katie Hobbs squeaked by Kari Lake. And there are western states where the presidential vote is more red than the state level votes.
But there is also good news here. AZ is where the Turning Point USA GOTV effort got off the ground. They were going to do it nationally and that busted, which is why Musk had to step in last minute. But they did get something going in AZ. So if AZ is doing well with turnout . . . well, that suggests ground game matters. And that's a good thing too, because we have a better ground game almost everywhere.
The other thing to ponder is that Arizona doesn't matter much. The only circumstance where AZ becomes relevant is if Kamala loses NC, GA and WI. Or, I suppose, if Kamala wins NC or GA and then loses MI.
2. In NC, I'd say things look good with the one exception of black turnout. The black vote turnout increased against white turnout by like 0.1% yesterday, so black turnout is still about 8 points lower than white turnout. On the plus side, though, Latino turnout is pretty so far, which is good because it lets those voters digest what happened in MSG and perhaps reconsider whether they want to support these fuckers.
3. I am as confident or more in MI as I am pessimistic about AZ. Remember: the MI GOP is a complete shit show. Probably the worst and most ineffective state party in this century, at least in terms of states that matter. The polls have looked good in MI -- there are more "outliers" in MI than anywhere else I've seen (Bullfinch +8, and the one posted above +4), which is important in a world of pollster herding. The GOTV in MI is strong on the Dems' side and probably weak as hell on the Pubs side.
4. So in this regard, the race has not changed in a month. The Dems have to win PA. That's it. If we do, we probably carry the election. If we don't, it's going to be tough. I've seen nothing from PA that would cause me to be concerned, other than the overall closeness of the polls which has been there for a while.
The cause in PA was helped by the state Supreme Court's ruling last week. About three weeks ago, the PA Supreme Court decided a case in a way that meant county election boards cannot count votes where the meaningless inner ballot wasn't marked correctly. That was bad. But last week, the PA Supreme Court ruled that voters whose absentee ballots weren't going to be counted could be notified of such and cast provisional ballots that will be counted. But that process -- notification and cure -- is not mandatory on counties. The big city election boards had already been doing that. The smaller counties weren't. You can see which way this will cut. Only a fraction of a percent, but again it's something.
This is most certainly true. I've spent the last week with my dad staying at my house with me. He's a reasonably persuadable guy and definitely isn't racist - he raised me to believe that everyone is equal. But he's surrounded by R's almost all the time, not the least of which is his wife, my stepmom, who is very conservative and comes across as a little bigoted at times, although she's mostly a nice person. They are in their 80's and long retired.
I've tried explaining things to him over the past week and think I've gotten through to him. He claims he won't be voting for Trump. But he'll say things like "I just know inflation wasn't as bad under Trump". So I'll walk him through all the reasons and he'll say he understands but then will say something like "I don't really know about all that, I just know Biden made inflation worse". So then I'll ask him to give me the policy Biden pursued that caused it and he'll say he doesn't know, just that it's worse. I'm like you are a college education person who had a successful 40 year professional career, you have do better than that. It's pretty frustrating.
There are a myriad other things he's being bombarded with, like his belief that Biden stopped oil production. I pull up the stats online and show him that's false and he'll say that's great. I will tell him if you are being lied to about that think about what else you are being lied to about, but I'm not sure it all gets through. Anyway this probably belongs in the family MAGA thread, but I wouldn't describe my family as MAGA, just conservative and misled. Hard to combat.
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Why do you think she will not?
My opinions is that those who objectively review the potential paths forward on the major issues, between the two candidates, she presents a better path forward.
For one economist have reviewed the two and predicted her plans to increase the debt much less than trumps. Additionally reviewed of her economic plans are better for the average middle family.
Plus, I believe that many are tired of the Trump shit show and want to move forward.
I'd prefer our leaders being able to talk and understanding that no matter who wins the country will move forward. I believe most know that a trump victory guarantees we never see collaboration again.