2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

More from the CBS poll:

“… In all, it nets out to even — and to an even-tighter contest. It's tied across the composite battleground states collectively, and Harris is down to just a +1 in national vote preference. (Harris had once been at +3 in the battlegrounds in September and it narrowed to +1 two weeks ago. Trump has incrementally erased a 4-point national edge Harris had after their debate.) …”

 

[rodoheel]

Lots of red wave polls flooding the zone tonight predicting a red wave

Are CNBC, CNN, and WSJ “red wave” pollsters?

 

[lawtig02]

Are CNBC, CNN, and WSJ “red wave” pollsters?

Not per se, but with the possible exception of CNBC, those are fairly old polls now. The WSJ one is the one with the major methodological issues that was discussed at length last week.

 

[nycfan]

Are CNBC, CNN, and WSJ “red wave” pollsters?

No. The Red wave ones are better for Trump and the GOP.

 

[quakerdevil]

I find it very hard to believe Kamala only gets 46% nationally.

Trump's ceiling has consistently been 46%

 

[nycfan]

Campaigns’ takes on Georgia so far:

How Democrats and Republicans view Georgia’s early voting numbers

Republicans have embraced early voting, boosting their numbers. Meanwhile more women are voting than men, a positive sign for Democrats.

appnews.ajc.com

“… Senior advisers for Vice President Kamala Harris well aware that voter participation rates in some ruby-red rural counties far outpaces more densely populated Democratic strongholds.

…
Harris number-crunchers see the 2022 midterm as the more relevant comparison and say they’re tracking above that turnout level. They expect this week to be the heaviest volume yet, particularly in metro Atlanta, and view their targets in reach.

Based on their modeling, nearly 20% of the Republican-leaning early voters so far this cycle cast Election Day ballots in 2022, compared with 10% of Democratic-leaning early voters. To them, that indicates a GOP “mode shift” toward earlier voting but not a major change in the size of the pro-Donald Trump electorate.

Women are outvoting men in Georgia by about 10 percentage points, an encouraging sign for a Democrat who polls well ahead of the former president with women voters. And according to Democratic analysis, turnout among Black women in the metro Atlanta suburbs is 40% higher in this cycle than at this point in 2020. …”

In 2022, polls seemed to have overstated the GOP turnout, and in 2020 the GOP use of early voting was actively discouraged by Trump and his team.

 

[korgguy1971]

Listen @nycfan , don't start up with your red zone shit again

 

[nycfan]

(Cont’d)

“… As for Republicans, they’re ecstatic that efforts to encourage early voting seem to be paying off after largely neglecting the practice in 2020.

… Brandon Phillips, a veteran Republican strategist who once led Trump’s Georgia operation, said GOP data modeling shows Trump with an edge of roughly 80,000 votes and that Democrats would be “fading by the day” if the pace continues.

… In DeKalb County, the second-biggest trove of likely Harris votes behind Fulton, only about 34% of voters have cast ballots. That’s far behind turnout topping 40% in many smaller, Trump friendly counties. …”

 

[HintonJamesHeel]

The thing I cling to is that every time there’s supposedly going to be a red wave, it’s the opposite. The polls are very discouraging.

 

[aGDevil2k]

So this batch thinks Trump will win the national vote now?

 

[quakerdevil]

This is so similar to 2012. Polls either had it tied or Romney up. Obama won by 4.

 

[CFordUNC]

The polls are very discouraging.

Which is precisely the entire point of the GOP-backed red wave pollsters flooding the zone with shit.

Ask yourself this: is the Trump campaign currently behaving like they think they are winning or going to win?

 

[lightbluenc]

Which is precisely the entire point of the GOP-backed red wave pollsters flooding the zone with shit.

Ask yourself this: is the Trump campaign currently behaving like they think they are winning or going to win?

I think they are being brash, bold and very confident. But they are always like that, because if they lose, they say the other side MUST have cheated.

 

[CFordUNC]

I think they are being brash, bold and very confident. But they are always like that, because if they lose, they say the other side MUST have cheated.

That’s precisely it. Anyone thinking that the Trump campaign is feeling like they are going to win the election the “old fashioned way” should have been fully disabused of that notion by yesterday‘s rally at MSG. That is not a campaign that is trying to add a single vote to their coffers- not one single solitary vote from moderate voters, independent voters, “undecided” voters, crossover voters, minority voters, etc. It’s a campaign that is laying the groundwork for attempting extralegal methods of winning the election.

 

[quakerdevil]

Now is not the time for pessimism; it cannot help, it only hurts. As hard as we've worked, as much as we've donated, as much as we've volunteered, these last 8 days need to be the hardest we've gone in the entire campaign cycle. I don't give a $h!t if you're busy, or you're tired, or you're depressed. If you do nothing, then you have no right to complain.

1. If you feel anxious or nervous, then "shut up and do something." - Michelle Obama

2. “Well, Doctor, what have we got, a republic or a monarchy?” - Elizabeth Willing Powel

“A republic, if you can keep it” - Ben Franklin

3. "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." - unconfirmed

 

[nycfan]

The thing I cling to is that every time there’s supposedly going to be a red wave, it’s the opposite. The polls are very discouraging.

I agree. Hoping the error this time is polls markedly overshooting their adjustments in an effort to capture Trump support.

What they got wrong in 2016 was just about everything; in 2020 the pollsters pretty well nailed Biden’s support but understated Trump support by overstating undecided and third party intentions. In 2022, they overstated generic GOP support and GOP votes in some Senate races.

Trump has not gotten over 47% support nationally in two prior elections, so I cling to that. Trump got 46.1% (to HRC’s 48%) nationally in 2016 and 46.8% (to Biden’s 51.3%) in 2020.

But in swing states this year in he got 48.1% in PA in 2016 and 48.8% in 2020; in MI, 47.5% in 2016 and 47.84% in 2020; in WI 47.22% in 2016 and 48.82% in 2020; AZ 48.08% in 2016 and 49.06% in 2020; NC 49.83% in 2016 and 49.93% in 2020; and GA 50.38% in 2016 and 49.24% in Georgia.

So Trump’s support actually grew slightly in all but one of those states from 2016 to 2020(!), with a significant 1.0 point downtick only in Georgia. And in those states he got at minimum 47.84% in those states in 2020, and nearly 50% in NC.

Best case scenario for Harris is polls have overcompensated for red votes and so are understating her support nationally and in swing states. But another more nuanced possibility is that the swing states are closer to the national mean b/c overwhelmingly Dem support has eroded in deep Blue states among working class voters - not nearly enough to put her candidacy at risk in those states but enough to eliminate the Clinton/Biden national total advantage. That would mean the national and swing state results should look about the same rather than Dems needing to be +3 nationally to win in swing states.

We won’t know until we know but since 2012, I’ve definitely thought that the side that is unskewing the polls is usually in trouble. This year, both sides have been unskewing at certain times but the late trends certainly seem to be favoring Trump and the GOP. To me, the real canaries in the coal mine have been the tightening of the Senate elections in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Anti-trans ads in both states seem to have been extremely successful.

Today, TBH, it feels like 2016 all over again (but with advance notice). The turnout doesn’t seem to be there like it was in 2020 but is surging more in rural areas (so far).

But Maybe GOP voters, authorized to use early in-person voting, are just surging in early voting and that is causing the eventual total GOP turnout to be overstated(??)

 

[finesse]

Now is not the time for pessimism; it cannot help, it only hurts. As hard as we've worked, as much as we've donated, as much as we've volunteered, these last 8 days need to be the hardest we've gone in the entire campaign cycle. I don't give a $h!t if you're busy, or you're tired, or you're depressed. If you do nothing, then you have no right to complain.

1. If you feel anxious or nervous, then "shut up and do something." - Michelle Obama

2. “Well, Doctor, what have we got, a republic or a monarchy?” - Elizabeth Willing Powel

“A republic, if you can keep it” - Ben Franklin

3. "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." - unconfirmed

A likely source for the last.

"When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall, one by one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle."- Edmund Burke