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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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  • Politics 
Icky Mettle said:
Totally anecdotal and means absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things, but there was a house around the corner from mine that had about 10 (if not more) Haley signs in the yard during primary season. A couple weeks ago, I saw a Trump sign in that same yard. (I didn’t see it the last time I drove by; the yard is now full of Halloween decorations.)
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There's a house in town that has a bunch of Halloween decorations, but the scariest thing is a Trump flag they have hanging from the front porch.
 
superrific said:
No. We don't get to discount a poll because we don't like what it's telling us. That's the HRC 2016 strategy.

Women vote on many issues other than abortion. You know, because mostly women and men share similar life experiences in our daily lives. And the success of those abortion ballot initiatives in red states only shows that abortion isn't necessarily the most important issue. It's an important issue, but these referenda are revealing plenty of HYs. He says he's pro-choice but he doesn't care about the issue enough to vote for candidates on its basis. Well, apparently there are a lot of them.

This is a great example, though, of why you should look at polling averages. Don't try to judge which polls are good and aren't good based on your preconceived notions of what they should look like. It's tempting to discount polls that look ridiculous. I've done it. But outside of true absurdity, it's just not a good idea.
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So can I ask why you think Harris will win? Because I see you consistently defending the Silvers and Cohns, and saying not to discount the weird-looking polls. So what data points to the outcome you expect? Or is it vibes?
 
HeelInTheOzarks said:
So can I ask why you think Harris will win? Because I see you consistently defending the Silvers and Cohns, and saying not to discount the weird-looking polls. So what data points to the outcome you expect? Or is it vibes?
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1. Ground game
2. Harris doing better with the most likely voters (this pertains to #1 in part)
3. Small dollar donations and volunteers
4. I'd rather be doing well among women than men
5. Because I don't trust the recalled vote methodology, and my understanding is that Kamala is doing better in the polls not using that methodology (this isn't a complaint about weird looking polls; this is an objection in theory that I would use no matter what the poll results might say)
6. Trump is putting a lot of weight on his inroads with young men, especially of color. It's unclear to me if young black men are actually going to pull for Trump. Just as most of the Haley voters and on-the-fence white people will pull for Trump because ultimately that's who they are, I'm guessing that this same dynamic will be at work this cycle for black men. That's potentially a significant difference-maker in GA and NC.

Of these, only #6 is purely speculative. The others are factual in nature. The uncertainty is in the magnitude of the effects. And there are concerns about polling errors, but (more informed speculation coming) I'm thinking that the polls are going to miss slightly in Kamala's direction, especially in blue wall states, because the pollsters will have overcorrected (see, e.g., the recalled vote methodology). There are also issues from 2020 polling that seem unlikely to be repeated.

I'd add another speculative thought, which is that there will be some Trump leaners who are looking at his increasing instability and dementia and just won't be able to cast the ballot for him when it's time. These are likely to be people who voted for Biden, and so they are already skeptical of Trump's bullshit and bluster.
 
Icky Mettle said:
Totally anecdotal and means absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things, but there was a house around the corner from mine that had about 10 (if not more) Haley signs in the yard during primary season. A couple weeks ago, I saw a Trump sign in that same yard. (I didn’t see it the last time I drove by; the yard is now full of Halloween decorations.)
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Haley voters switching to Harris will happen but it’ll certainly be the exception rather than the rule. Haley herself has endorsed Trump and warned how dangerous a Harris presidency would be.
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
Haley voters switching to Harris will happen but it’ll certainly be the exception rather than the rule. Haley herself has endorsed Trump and warned how dangerous a Harris presidency would be.
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I want you to read back to yourself what you just typed. Then go take a long hard look in the mirror and ask yourself where you went wrong in life.
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
Haley voters switching to Harris will happen but it’ll certainly be the exception rather than the rule. Haley herself has endorsed Trump and warned how dangerous a Harris presidency would be.
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Of course she also warned us how dangerous a Trump presidency would be, so I’m not sure any warning from her means very much.
 
WaynetheDrain said:
So, all you proved was that Nikki Haley doesn't know how inflation and the economy works. Just like you.

You're a dumb sports guy, so we give you a pass on that. What's her excuse?
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I disagree with this take. I think what he proved is that Nkki Haley is just as craven as everyone else who knows how horrible Trump is. They are deathly afraid of the Liz Cheney treatment even though they know Cheney is spot-on.

The most rich thing about those posts is the mention of Russia invading Ukraine. Maybe that invasion wouldn't have happened without Biden being in office,.but that would only be because Trump would have nuked Ukraine himself if Vlad wanted it.

There isn't a spine among em.
 
Bigs23 said:
Almost all Haley supporters are voting for trump.
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A missing sliver MAY be the number of NC Dems who changed registration to Independent so they could vote in the GOP primary (with a contested Dem primary at the top). Not a huge number but those may well be “hidden” Harris voters in the Independent cluster.

“… There were 2,424,069 million registered Democrats and 2,309,357 registered Republicans in the state as of October 12, one day after the deadline to register online or by mail. North Carolina residents can still register to vote at early voting sites.

But unaffiliated voters make up the largest voting group in North Carolina, as 2,925,342 people do not identify with any party

… In a November 7, 2020, report, Democrats held an even larger edge, with 2,644,050 voters identifying as Democrats, compared to 2,233,007 as Republicans. At the time, 2,452,783 voters were unaffiliated. Trump won North Carolina by 1.3 points that year. …”
 
WaynetheDrain said:
So, all you proved was that Nikki Haley doesn't know how inflation and the economy works. Just like you.

You're a dumb sports guy, so we give you a pass on that. What's her excuse?
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My point was that not many Haley voters are actually going to vote for Harris, because Haley thinks Harris is completely incompetent. For years now she’s been saying that.

Of course on the margins there may be a few who do it, but it’s not like Nikki Haley has TDS like Liz Cheney or someone and is encouraging her supporters to support Harris. Haley gets it.
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
My point was that not many Haley voters are actually going to vote for Harris, because Haley thinks Harris is completely incompetent. For years now she’s been saying that.

Of course on the margins there may be a few who do it, but it’s not like Nikki Haley has TDS like Liz Cheney or someone and is encouraging her supporters to support Harris. Haley gets it.
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She did anyway.

“Rightly or wrongly, chaos follows (Trump),” Haley complained at almost every event. “We have too much division in this country, and too many threats around the world to be sitting in chaos once again.”
 
The way that you can know that the entire Republican Party and every single one of its voters is completely and totally utter batshit slapfuck insane crazy- and not at all conservative anymore- is that Liz Cheney has more actual conservativism in the tip of her pinky toe than anyone else in the party anymore, politician and voter alike. I mean, holy fuck, how far off the deep end have we gone if A FUCKING CHENEY- A LITERAL FUCKING CHENEY (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)- is considered a RINO.

We have reached peak lunacy. When all of this MAGA shit is over with in a couple of weeks, I’m gonna be able to spend the rest of my life laughing at every single Republican who has to do the walk of shame back to conservativism like a college girl home from Frat Row on a Sunday morning.
 
theel4life said:
It seems like a lot more on here are starting to lose confidence in a Harris win.
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aGDevil2k said:
When when you doom spiral you can influence others

It's also natural to get nervous when your work is done and you are just awaiting results
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It might be natural but why succumb to it? We've basically got a week left. If you knew you were going to die one week from today, would you sit around weeping and crying about the unfairness of it all? I wouldn't. I'd try to live it up as best I could. And we're not even in that situation, not even close. It's more like you might have a week to live but if you're not dead after this week, you'll be fine. Would I be nervous? Sure. But I wouldn't sit there stewing like a loser. We're on the right side, let's hope we prevail. If we don't, we can worry about what to do about it after next week. I've kinda thought the campaign of joy thing is a little cheesy but it's better than the alternative. Let's try to carry joy into this last week and joyfully curb stomp this motherfucker out of our collective lives...
 
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