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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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CNN Poll also a tie nationally

Harris 47
Trump 47

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“… The race has been remarkably stable throughout this tumultuous political year. The poll finds that 85% of likely voters who’ve made a choice say they knew which party they would support in the presidential election all along, and just 15% say they changed their minds along the way.

As of now, even more than that are fully locked in: A scant 2% of all likely voters say they haven’t yet chosen a candidate, and another 9% say that they could change their minds before casting a ballot.

… Those voters who say their choices are locked in now split 50% Harris to 49% Trump, with just 1% supporting other candidates.

Those who could change tilt toward Trump and are much more likely than decided voters to be backers of minor-party and independent candidates (38% support Trump, 31% Harris, 30% someone else).

They are also much less motivated to vote than those who’ve made a decision. While 70% of likely voters who say their minds are made up say they are “extremely motivated” to vote, that drops to just 27% among those who could change their minds.

…The poll was fielded October 20-23, after early and absentee voting was well underway across the country, and found the 20% of likely voters who say they have already cast their ballots break 61% Harris to 36% Trump, while those who say they haven’t yet voted break in Trump’s favor, 50% to 44%. …”
 


If the CNN poll is not completely and totally wrong, Harris is banking a significant lead in early voting … but Trump will bounce back on Election Day.

Hopefully the early voting totals build to over 30% at the rate she’s won the early voters which, applying the CNN poll result for her lead early and his on ED (obviously a dicey proposition), would make it tough for Trump to catchup.

But if the Trump wins the remaining 80% 50-44, it is a very slight Trump edge depending on what the undecided/third party 6% of those who have not voted do.
 
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Huge key for this race was to keep the third party vote very low. This was why Biden was likely to lose. Harris hopefully solidifies the Dem coalition and keeps 3-4% from casting third party votes. Trump is always stuck at 46
I feel like there will be less 3rd party votes.

Trump has always been polarizing, but we’re kind of at a “pick a side” point in history.
 
I feel like there will be less 3rd party votes.

Trump has always been polarizing, but we’re kind of at a “pick a side” point in history.
We were in 2016 as well and people still didn't get it. I expect less of it this time but only because of weaker third party movements.
 
I feel like there will be less 3rd party votes.

Trump has always been polarizing, but we’re kind of at a “pick a side” point in history.
This was the biggest difference between 16 and 20.

2016
MI - Trump/Clinton difference: 10,674
MI - Johnson + Stein: 223,599

PA - Trump/Clinton difference: 44,292
PA - Johnson + Stein: 196,656

WI - Trump/Clinton difference: 22,748
WI - Johnson + Stein: 137,746


2020
MI - Biden/Trump difference: 154,188
MI - Libertarian/Green: 74,099

PA - Biden/Trump difference: 80,555
PA - Libertarian/Green: 79,380

WI - Biden/Trump difference: 20,682
WI - Libertarian/Green: 38,491


Michigan R to D swing- 164,862
Michigan decrease Lib/Green - 149,500
Pennsylvania R to D swing - 124,847
Pennsylvania decrease Lib/Green - 117,276
Wisconsin R to D swing - 43,470
Wisconsin decrease Lib/Green - 99,255
 
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For Trump

I don’t think he’s gained anything from it. You just needed someone that a few people have heard of on the ballot to have the people who don’t like Trump but also don’t want a Dem/woman/minority to be able to check.
I think that was Trump's original intention in pumping RFKJr up. But what ended up occurring is that polling showed that RFKJr pulled more voters from Trump than Harris and so he was a net drain on Trump. That's when they ended the charade and had RFKJr drop out.

There's a reason why RFKJr was suing to get off the ballot in swing states. It's because him being on the ballot was not good for Trump.
 
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