2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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CNN Poll also a tie nationally

Harris 47
Trump 47

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“… The race has been remarkably stable throughout this tumultuous political year. The poll finds that 85% of likely voters who’ve made a choice say they knew which party they would support in the presidential election all along, and just 15% say they changed their minds along the way.

As of now, even more than that are fully locked in: A scant 2% of all likely voters say they haven’t yet chosen a candidate, and another 9% say that they could change their minds before casting a ballot.

… Those voters who say their choices are locked in now split 50% Harris to 49% Trump, with just 1% supporting other candidates.

Those who could change tilt toward Trump and are much more likely than decided voters to be backers of minor-party and independent candidates (38% support Trump, 31% Harris, 30% someone else).

They are also much less motivated to vote than those who’ve made a decision. While 70% of likely voters who say their minds are made up say they are “extremely motivated” to vote, that drops to just 27% among those who could change their minds.

…The poll was fielded October 20-23, after early and absentee voting was well underway across the country, and found the 20% of likely voters who say they have already cast their ballots break 61% Harris to 36% Trump, while those who say they haven’t yet voted break in Trump’s favor, 50% to 44%. …”
 


If the CNN poll is not completely and totally wrong, Harris is banking a significant lead in early voting … but Trump will bounce back on Election Day.

Hopefully the early voting totals build to over 30% at the rate she’s won the early voters which, applying the CNN poll result for her lead early and his on ED (obviously a dicey proposition), would make it tough for Trump to catchup.

But if the Trump wins the remaining 80% 50-44, it is a very slight Trump edge depending on what the undecided/third party 6% of those who have not voted do.
 
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HeelInTheOzarks said:
Huge key for this race was to keep the third party vote very low. This was why Biden was likely to lose. Harris hopefully solidifies the Dem coalition and keeps 3-4% from casting third party votes. Trump is always stuck at 46
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I feel like there will be less 3rd party votes.

Trump has always been polarizing, but we’re kind of at a “pick a side” point in history.
 
RockyMtnHoo said:
I feel like there will be less 3rd party votes.

Trump has always been polarizing, but we’re kind of at a “pick a side” point in history.
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We were in 2016 as well and people still didn't get it. I expect less of it this time but only because of weaker third party movements.
 
RockyMtnHoo said:
I feel like there will be less 3rd party votes.

Trump has always been polarizing, but we’re kind of at a “pick a side” point in history.
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This was the biggest difference between 16 and 20.

2016
MI - Trump/Clinton difference: 10,674
MI - Johnson + Stein: 223,599

PA - Trump/Clinton difference: 44,292
PA - Johnson + Stein: 196,656

WI - Trump/Clinton difference: 22,748
WI - Johnson + Stein: 137,746


2020
MI - Biden/Trump difference: 154,188
MI - Libertarian/Green: 74,099

PA - Biden/Trump difference: 80,555
PA - Libertarian/Green: 79,380

WI - Biden/Trump difference: 20,682
WI - Libertarian/Green: 38,491


Michigan R to D swing- 164,862
Michigan decrease Lib/Green - 149,500
Pennsylvania R to D swing - 124,847
Pennsylvania decrease Lib/Green - 117,276
Wisconsin R to D swing - 43,470
Wisconsin decrease Lib/Green - 99,255
 
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