2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[CFordUNC]

 

[superrific]

So I think aGDevil2k has it right, there has clearly been a concerted effort by the right to get their voters out and early to stiffle any early election votes that the D's cast. They are also flooding the polls with red wave polling in an effort to skew the national polls and show the race as closer than it is. I also think that some of the bigger polls (CNN with new ownership, NYT) are overcompensatiing for the "silent" Trump voter effect. I don't think that exists anymore. Trump voters are proud and we are three cycles in, there is no shame anymore (see the Man In the High Castle rally at MSG last night).

I think when voters come out in full force from both parties, the D's win. There are just more D's in the US. I also believe that there is a silent Harris voter that is going to materialize (R's who hate what has happened to their party, women who will vote D in private, men who are horrified that their daughters could be raped and forced to have the child, etc.). I also think Trump is not going to get as much military votes as he thinks.

If Trump, the House, and/or the SC attempt a coup, Biden need only look to the steps that Lincoln took at the start of the Civil War in order to preserve the union. Edited to add that there is only one Armed Services in our country and is not these make believe soldiers running around with Ar's.

Of course I could be wrong about the above.

1. The downside of the "GOP has made a concerted effort to get their votes out early" argument is that it means the GOP has an effective ground game and/or GOTV operation. And I've been hoping that the GOP's ground game was terrible.

That said, there are a few things here. First, in GA, Trump is using Kemp's GOTV and that's a solid operation. In MI, by contrast, the state party has nothing. I don't know how much it has in PA either, given that the party was shellacked in 2022 with horrible, horrible candidates who raised no money. So if GA turnout is good for them, it doesn't mean it will be good in MI and PA.

2. I've seen nothing from the Times to suggest that it's overcompensating for the "silent" voter effect. Other polls are doing more (this is the import of the recalled-vote weighting). It's possible the Times just has a method that will skew a bit right. I mean, it is weighting on a LOT of different categories. I'm not sure how they do that, exactly. The only way I can think it can be done is by disaggregating votes. That is, you model a vote as consisting X% of race, Y% of gender, z% of homeownership, q% of age, etc. ,and then you place weights on each component and then sum them up again. Is that a good method? I have no idea.

Also, keep in mind that the NYT polling averages have Kamala winning in NV, PA, MI and WI. By less than a point, but still.

 

[rodoheel]

The most direct reasons I voted for Trump, all of which I have shared previously, are:

1) The average person's dollar stretched further than ever before during Trump's first presidency. Now everything from groceries to gas is totally out of control and creating financial strain on the middle class. I personally have been able to save and invest in accordance with my goals under all 3 of Obama/Trump/Biden, because I am young and well-educated and have worked my tail off in my career, so my personal situation has only gotten better under each successive administration since I graduated. But some of my less-fortunate family members are struggling the last 4 years after thriving under Trump.

2) Trump will work to reduce illegal immigration. I had a close childhood friend who died in 2023 of fentanyl overdose so this danger became personal to me in the last couple years.

3) No new wars during Trump's first term. And then after the Afghanistan withdrawal debacle from the Biden administration, it emboldened Putin to move on Ukraine, Hamas to slaughter innocent Jews and the ensuing slaughter of innocent Palestinians in Gaza since, and of course China flirting with Taiwan....

4) Democrats nationwide lost their ever-loving minds during COVID and it opened my mind to which side stands for personal freedom vs which side stands for authoritarian policies and the government being the answer to everything to save us from ourselves (hint: the authoritarian side is the side that likes to accuse the other side of being authoritarian)

5) Drain the swamp.. "The system" in Washington DC and their friends in the news media can't stand Donald Trump. The administrative state in this country is absurd and we need political outsiders in there to clean up as much of the mess as possible. Half the country was led to believe that everything with Joe Biden's health was fine for the last 4 years, and they bought it hook/line/sinker until it was exposed for the world to see on national TV during the debate. If Harris and others will downright lie to you about the mental state of the POTUS, what else are they lying about?

A few of the more obvious points:

1. "Now everything from groceries to gas is totally out of control and creating financial strain on the middle class." This is just objectively false. Inflation is way down and has been better in the post-COVID US than anywhere else. And neither you nor anyone else has offered any credible reason to think Trump has any plan to lower inflation. Your entire basis for thinking Trump will lower inflation is just "inflation was low last time he was president." Which is the reasoning of a child. If your relatives were doing great under Trump and are struggling financially under Biden, it's probably their own fault.

2. "My friend died from a fentanyl overdose so I support mass deportations of illegal immigrants" is just an absolutely wild logical leap to make. The freaking Cato Institute, abotu as far from left-wing as you can get, says the vast majority of fentanyl smuggling is done by US Citizens: https://www.cato.org/blog/us-citizens-were-802-crossers-fentanyl-ports-entry-2019-2024 If you hate immigrants and believe great replacement theory or something just say so rather than making such a hilarious justification for supporting Trump's immigration policies.

3. Drain the swamp and replace it with an even worse swamp? The first Trump admin was a nest of grifters and fraudsters. The second will be even worse. Corruption will run rampant, just like it did last time. You would rather Trump and his cronies loot the public treasury and explode the debt even further if it means your taxes go down 2%. Just admit it.

4. "Hint: the authoritarian side is the side that likes to accuse the other side of being authoritarian." Once again the reasoning of a child. And ignores the rather obvious reality that Trump and his campaign are constantly calling the other side authoritarian - just like you called the other side authoritarian in your own post! What hopelessly reductive reasoning. You think freaking vaccine mandates and mask mandates during a pandemic are authoritarian, but mass deportations and increasing executive power aren't? What a joke.

 

[Mulberry Heel]

dukeman92 did that to you 3 days ago. Then you go right back and ask the same damn question. If he shows you the data, you will be right back here tomorrow with the same question.

Haven't most of the early voter results in many states (including some swing states) showing that women are voting in higher numbers than men, including when compared to 2020? I would think that would be a very good sign for Harris, given what happened in 2022 and the post-Roe growing gender gap.

 

[superrific]

Oh I promise I am not looking to do that. I’m just looking to celebrate with y’all. Not gonna spike the football on anyone other than MAGAts.

Fucking A, man. Spike the football wherever you damn please if you're right. If you want to come to my house and spike a football in my literal face, we could arrange that (though it's a lot of travel for little reward). I just want to win.

 

[rodoheel]

Fucking A, man. Spike the football wherever you damn please if you're right. If you want to come to my house and spike a football in my literal face, we could arrange that (though it's a lot of travel for little reward). I just want to win.

I will be happy for the entire board to call me lawtig and Cford's little bitch for the next six months if it means defeating Trump

 

[Mundial]

1. The downside of the "GOP has made a concerted effort to get their votes out early" argument is that it means the GOP has an effective ground game and/or GOTV operation. And I've been hoping that the GOP's ground game was terrible.

That said, there are a few things here. First, in GA, Trump is using Kemp's GOTV and that's a solid operation. In MI, by contrast, the state party has nothing. I don't know how much it has in PA either, given that the party was shellacked in 2022 with horrible, horrible candidates who raised no money. So if GA turnout is good for them, it doesn't mean it will be good in MI and PA.

2. I've seen nothing from the Times to suggest that it's overcompensating for the "silent" voter effect. Other polls are doing more (this is the import of the recalled-vote weighting). It's possible the Times just has a method that will skew a bit right. I mean, it is weighting on a LOT of different categories. I'm not sure how they do that, exactly. The only way I can think it can be done is by disaggregating votes. That is, you model a vote as consisting X% of race, Y% of gender, z% of homeownership, q% of age, etc. ,and then you place weights on each component and then sum them up again. Is that a good method? I have no idea.

Also, keep in mind that the NYT polling averages have Kamala winning in NV, PA, MI and WI. By less than a point, but still.

The downside of the "GOP has made a concerted effort to get their votes out early" argument is that it means the GOP has an effective ground game and/or GOTV operation. And I've been hoping that the GOP's ground game was terrible.

1. The downside of the "GOP has made a concerted effort to get their votes out early" argument is that it means the GOP has an effective ground game and/or GOTV operation. And I've been hoping that the GOP's ground game was terrible.

That said, there are a few things here. First, in GA, Trump is using Kemp's GOTV and that's a solid operation. In MI, by contrast, the state party has nothing. I don't know how much it has in PA either, given that the party was shellacked in 2022 with horrible, horrible candidates who raised no money. So if GA turnout is good for them, it doesn't mean it will be good in MI and PA.

2. I've seen nothing from the Times to suggest that it's overcompensating for the "silent" voter effect. Other polls are doing more (this is the import of the recalled-vote weighting). It's possible the Times just has a method that will skew a bit right. I mean, it is weighting on a LOT of different categories. I'm not sure how they do that, exactly. The only way I can think it can be done is by disaggregating votes. That is, you model a vote as consisting X% of race, Y% of gender, z% of homeownership, q% of age, etc. ,and then you place weights on each component and then sum them up again. Is that a good method? I have no idea.

Also, keep in mind that the NYT polling averages have Kamala winning in NV, PA, MI and WI. By less than a point, but still.

Super all due respect but your attempting to understand the MAGA movement is like Ozymandias or Reed Richards trying to understand the ants in Antman. The only “coordination” with most of these voters is social media. I have interacted and discussed with a very representative group and that is literally all that has been done to get them out (and a healthy dose of Fox, One, Sean Ryan, etc.).

 

[heelinhell]

The most direct reasons I voted for Trump, all of which I have shared previously, are:

1) The average person's dollar stretched further than ever before during Trump's first presidency. Now everything from groceries to gas is totally out of control and creating financial strain on the middle class. I personally have been able to save and invest in accordance with my goals under all 3 of Obama/Trump/Biden, because I am young and well-educated and have worked my tail off in my career, so my personal situation has only gotten better under each successive administration since I graduated. But some of my less-fortunate family members are struggling the last 4 years after thriving under Trump.

2) Trump will work to reduce illegal immigration. I had a close childhood friend who died in 2023 of fentanyl overdose so this danger became personal to me in the last couple years.

3) No new wars during Trump's first term. And then after the Afghanistan withdrawal debacle from the Biden administration, it emboldened Putin to move on Ukraine, Hamas to slaughter innocent Jews and the ensuing slaughter of innocent Palestinians in Gaza since, and of course China flirting with Taiwan....

4) Democrats nationwide lost their ever-loving minds during COVID and it opened my mind to which side stands for personal freedom vs which side stands for authoritarian policies and the government being the answer to everything to save us from ourselves (hint: the authoritarian side is the side that likes to accuse the other side of being authoritarian)

5) Drain the swamp.. "The system" in Washington DC and their friends in the news media can't stand Donald Trump. The administrative state in this country is absurd and we need political outsiders in there to clean up as much of the mess as possible. Half the country was led to believe that everything with Joe Biden's health was fine for the last 4 years, and they bought it hook/line/sinker until it was exposed for the world to see on national TV during the debate. If Harris and others will downright lie to you about the mental state of the POTUS, what else are they lying about?

1 ) Thank you for confirming my suspicion that your financial situation is better now than under Trump

2 ) Biden's border policies have been superior to Trump's policies...https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65574725

3 ) Trump ended no American foreign wars. Biden did.

4 ) Trump's botched management of the pandemic resulted in thousands upon thousands of avoidable American deaths.

5 ) " The system" saved us from Trump's incompetence, fascist impulses, and his attempt to overthrow our democracy

 

[CFordUNC]

Fucking A, man. Spike the football wherever you damn please if you're right. If you want to come to my house and spike a football in my literal face, we could arrange that (though it's a lot of travel for little reward). I just want to win.

Nah, we are all on the same team. The folks who are panicking and worrying and feeling stressed and anxious, they’re all my team even if I don’t share those particular views. MAGA is no longer my team, and if and when we win, forgive the crudeness and crassness and awfully vivid imagery, but I’m going to enjoy dragging my Democratic ass across their faces, because we have far, far more differences than mere ideological or policy preferences.

 

[superrific]

Super all due respect but your attempting to understand the MAGA movement is like Ozymandias or Reed Richards trying to understand the ants in Antman. The only “coordination” with most of these voters is social media. I have interacted and discussed with a very representative group and that is literally all that has been done to get them out (and a healthy dose of Fox, One, Sean Ryan, etc.).

Hey, I know what I don't know. And yes, understanding the MAGA movement is not in my wheelhouse. If social media is all they have, well that's good I guess. I would put social media in the category of "ground game" but the Dems have plenty of that too so it doesn't necessarily move the needle in terms of superiority of operation -- but it does potentially mean that there are fewer voters on whom the superior Dem GOTV can work.

BTW, Ozymandias? King of Kings, whose decrepit statue lies broken and crumbled in the desert sand?

 

[superrific]

Nah, we are all on the same team. The folks who are panicking and worrying and feeling stressed and anxious, they’re all my team even if I don’t share those particular views. MAGA is no longer my team, and if and when we win, forgive the crudeness and crassness and awfully vivid imagery, but I’m going to enjoy dragging my Democratic ass across their faces, because we have far, far more differences than mere ideological or policy preferences.

I know. I was just saying that we wouldn't mind if you did a Lebron or MJ thing and showed off even for your teammates. I don't think any of us will care in the slightest if you were to start a thread every day titled "I told y'all motherfuckers!"

 

[Mulberry Heel]

Honestly, after wading through all that, it seems like he's using a lot of words and data to basically say that neither he nor anyone really knows who is going to win the election at this point. For every point that Republicans may be doing better in early voting than 2020, there's a counterpoint that may favor Democrats.

 

[Croatoan]

This is like reading the script for one of those 80’s movies where the cheerleader falls for the nerd because of some weird, shared bond. Highly entertaining; I’m pulling for you two.

 

[Mundial]

Hey, I know what I don't know. And yes, understanding the MAGA movement is not in my wheelhouse. If social media is all they have, well that's good I guess. I would put social media in the category of "ground game" but the Dems have plenty of that too so it doesn't necessarily move the needle in terms of superiority of operation -- but it does potentially mean that there are fewer voters on whom the superior Dem GOTV can work.

BTW, Ozymandias? King of Kings, whose decrepit statue lies broken and crumbled in the desert sand?

​

Adrian Veidt from the Watchmen.

 

[superrific]

​

Adrian Veidt from the Watchmen.

Oh. I don't watch those movies. I guess it's better than being the erstwhile King of Kings LOL.

 

[Mundial]

Oh. I don't watch those movies. I guess it's better than being the erstwhile King of Kings LOL.

The HBO miniseries was fascinating.

 

[hedge]

The average person's dollar stretched further than ever before during Trump's first presidency. Now everything from groceries to gas is totally out of control

I paid $2.49 for gas last week. It's been under $3 for a long time around here...

 

[Rock]

I never watched the miniseries but the movie is one of my all-time underrated gem picks.

 

[CFordUNC]

This is like reading the script for one of those 80’s movies where the cheerleader falls for the nerd because of some weird, shared bond. Highly entertaining; I’m pulling for you two.

I don’t recall giving you permission to come up for air! You are such a weird, creepy, stalkerish little dude. You’ve had your tongue up my asshole for so long on this board you should be able to tell everyone else what I had for dinner last night.

 

[superrific]

Honestly, after wading through all that, it seems like he's using a lot of words and data to basically say that neither he nor anyone really knows who is going to win the election at this point. For every point that Republicans may be doing better in early voting than 2020, there's a counterpoint that may favor Democrats.

What else is he going to do for the next few days? Also I bet you can think of this as sort of part of his compensation. The vast majority of the time, he sits around, works on models and other stuff, and nobody gives a fuck about what he has to say. And then every two Octobers, he gets a little bit famous. I have no problem with him milking it a bit.