2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[uncjhodges]

I can't follow what Elliott Morris is trying to argue there. Too many weird statistics that are percentages of one thing against another. Some thoughts:

1. Of all the swing states, Arizona is the one looking the worst. This should not be a surprise. Again, this is a state that has voted for a Dem twice since Truman, and one of those was 2020 and it was super-close. It is a purple state but more red than blue. I've been fooled in the past thinking, "but Dems have all statewide offices!" and while that's true, it's only barely because Katie Hobbs squeaked by Kari Lake. And there are western states where the presidential vote is more red than the state level votes.

But there is also good news here. AZ is where the Turning Point USA GOTV effort got off the ground. They were going to do it nationally and that busted, which is why Musk had to step in last minute. But they did get something going in AZ. So if AZ is doing well with turnout . . . well, that suggests ground game matters. And that's a good thing too, because we have a better ground game almost everywhere.

The other thing to ponder is that Arizona doesn't matter much. The only circumstance where AZ becomes relevant is if Kamala loses NC, GA and WI. Or, I suppose, if Kamala wins NC or GA and then loses MI.

2. In NC, I'd say things look good with the one exception of black turnout. The black vote turnout increased against white turnout by like 0.1% yesterday, so black turnout is still about 8 points lower than white turnout. On the plus side, though, Latino turnout is pretty so far, which is good because it lets those voters digest what happened in MSG and perhaps reconsider whether they want to support these fuckers.

3. I am as confident or more in MI as I am pessimistic about AZ. Remember: the MI GOP is a complete shit show. Probably the worst and most ineffective state party in this century, at least in terms of states that matter. The polls have looked good in MI -- there are more "outliers" in MI than anywhere else I've seen (Bullfinch +8, and the one posted above +4), which is important in a world of pollster herding. The GOTV in MI is strong on the Dems' side and probably weak as hell on the Pubs side.

4. So in this regard, the race has not changed in a month. The Dems have to win PA. That's it. If we do, we probably carry the election. If we don't, it's going to be tough. I've seen nothing from PA that would cause me to be concerned, other than the overall closeness of the polls which has been there for a while.

The cause in PA was helped by the state Supreme Court's ruling last week. About three weeks ago, the PA Supreme Court decided a case in a way that meant county election boards cannot count votes where the meaningless inner ballot wasn't marked correctly. That was bad. But last week, the PA Supreme Court ruled that voters whose absentee ballots weren't going to be counted could be notified of such and cast provisional ballots that will be counted. But that process -- notification and cure -- is not mandatory on counties. The big city election boards had already been doing that. The smaller counties weren't. You can see which way this will cut. Only a fraction of a percent, but again it's something.

I feel good about MI and PA.
Has to win one of GA, NC, and WI.
likelihood imo is
GA
WI



NC

 

[superrific]

given the enormity of the former Eday R vote, that explains so much in these states right now

What do you take to be the significance of that data (and I think it's only an estimate)? I can't figure out if it's telling us anything useful. I mean, you could put a big red square abound the Dem numbers there and wonder, "are these people just waiting or are they not going to turn out"?

 

[superrific]

I feel good about MI and PA.
Has to win one of GA, NC, and WI.
likelihood imo is
GA
WI



NC

Everything in NC is looking fine except the black turnout, and that's not been awful. I think if we keep the turnout gap less than 6 points, we win. If it's more than 10 points, we probably fall short. It's at 8 right now. But the gender gap is looking good.

 

[aGDevil2k]

What do you take to be the significance of that data (and I think it's only an estimate)? I can't figure out if it's telling us anything useful. I mean, you could put a big red square abound the Dem numbers there and wonder, "are these people just waiting or are they not going to turn out"?

I literally said it. People are freaking about the R turnout being bigger than Dems so far. That shows right there that it's their formerly EDay vote coming out early. It's not some magic new R influx.

And the whole R vs D is pointless when a third of the vote is unaffiliated. So it's just weird how folks have been like omgtheRvoteisbig.com

 

[Mundial]

They are absolutely conspiring for a coup.

How is that going to work when Joe Biden is the president?

 

[RockyMtnHoo]

This is most certainly true. I've spent the last week with my dad staying at my house with me. He's a reasonably persuadable guy and definitely isn't racist - he raised me to believe that everyone is equal. But he's surrounded by R's almost all the time, not the least of which is his wife, my stepmom, who is very conservative and comes across as a little bigoted at times, although she's mostly a nice person. They are in their 80's and long retired.

I've tried explaining things to him over the past week and think I've gotten through to him. He claims he won't be voting for Trump. But he'll say things like "I just know inflation wasn't as bad under Trump". So I'll walk him through all the reasons and he'll say he understands but then will say something like "I don't really know about all that, I just know Biden made inflation worse". So then I'll ask him to give me the policy Biden pursued that caused it and he'll say he doesn't know, just that it's worse. I'm like you are a college education person who had a successful 40 year professional career, you have do better than that. It's pretty frustrating.

There are a myriad other things he's being bombarded with, like his belief that Biden stopped oil production. I pull up the stats online and show him that's false and he'll say that's great. I will tell him if you are being lied to about that think about what else you are being lied to about, but I'm not sure it all gets through. Anyway this probably belongs in the family MAGA thread, but I wouldn't describe my family as MAGA, just conservative and misled. Hard to combat.

This is a good example of what I was talking about.

We get extremely frustrated on this board because we see links and clips daily about the horrible things Trump says and plans to do, and it blows our minds he’s running even with Harris. I’ve said myself how horrible I think the people are who have or will vote for him, but the more I talk to people who don’t have an extreme opinion (in one way, or the other) of Trump, I just don’t see folks paying attention to what’s going on. That’s unfortunate and a little scary, but the closer we get to Nov 5 I feel like there are more people out there like your father, who just aren’t paying attention close enough…not that they’re bad people necessarily.

 

[lightbluenc]

Everything in NC is looking fine except the black turnout, and that's not been awful. I think if we keep the turnout gap less than 6 points, we win. If it's more than 10 points, we probably fall short. It's at 8 right now. But the gender gap is looking good.

Also in NC, in 2020 R's turnout was 81% and D's was 75%, so a 6% difference in turnout. (with Unaffiliated being 70%)

Right now its just a 3% advantage for R's, so I'm hoping that if D's can have the turnout disparity of 5% and under, then that's a good thing.

If we can end it being D turnout out 76% and R at just 79% she has a better shot.

*edited to clarify Unaffiliated voters.

 

[HeelYeah2012]

You voted for Donald Trump and Hal Leatherman. Mark Robinson, Dan Bishop, and Michelle Morrow are a bridge too far for you but you happily vote for people just as bad or worse. Maybe you should sit this out rather than offering your nonsensical “analysis.”

I also wouldn't call Trump or Weatherman "great candidates". The only great candidate I voted for was probably Jeff Jackson.

 

[superrific]

I literally said it. People are freaking about the R turnout being bigger than Dems so far. That shows right there that it's their formerly EDay vote coming out early.

There are two sides to a "R turnout is bigger than D turnout" narrative. Sure, it could be that R turnout is just being time-shifted more than D turnout. But what if a) overall Republican turnout is higher overall and/or b) Dem turnout just doesn't materialize? I don't think the glass half full view is any more grounded than the glass half empty one.

Of course there's also the little matter of what names are on the ballots being returned. To me, that's a more important variable than I think the media and election analysts are giving credit. Maybe I'm wrong about that.

Also, where the hell did those numbers come from? I can't square the claim about PA in that tweet with what I'm seeing on the PA official voting sites.

 

[superrific]

Also in NC, in 2020 R's turnout was 81% and D's was 75%, so a 6% difference in turnout. (with UA being 70%)

Right now its just a 3% advantage for R's, so I'm hoping that if D's can have the turnout disparity of 5% and under, then that's a good thing.

If we can end it being D turnout out 76% and R at just 79% she has a better shot.

What is UA?

 

[aGDevil2k]

What is UA?

unaffiliated

 

[lightbluenc]

What is UA?

Unaffiliated, sorry I'll edit the post to reflect it.

On top of that, I think there were a chunk of Dems that switched party ID to Unaffiliated to vote in the primary for Haley. So some of the numbers of actual registered D's has gone way down.

 

[superrific]

By the way, the Dems were said to have a target of surplus Dem turnout (that is, Dem registered ballots - Rep registered ballots) of 400K. It's leveling off but still growing, and it's at 372K.

I don't know the modeling on that 400K number. I have to assume that getting 400K makes a victory quite likely (you have to set goals that are meaningful), and so if we top off at, say, 390K we're still in good shape. I don't know if that's true, though.

Still, I'd rather be us than them in PA and MI. I'd rather be them than us in AZ. I think GA and NC are both close. I'd rather be us in MI than them in either of those states -- and I'd rather be in the position of not *needing* either and definitely not needing both.

 

[superrific]

unaffiliated

Ah yes, the classic two letter abbreviation for one word. It's like when people say out loud "Dubya Dubya Two." That's more of an old timer thing and maybe the younger folks don't get the reference.

 

[Icky Mettle]

I literally said it. People are freaking about the R turnout being bigger than Dems so far. That shows right there that it's their formerly EDay vote coming out early. It's not some magic new R influx.

And the whole R vs D is pointless when a third of the vote is unaffiliated. So it's just weird how folks have been like omgtheRvoteisbig.com

Anecdotal here, but I know a lot of Rs voting for Kamala. So who knows what % of the early voter Rs is actually voting for Trump.

 

[aGDevil2k]

By the way, the Dems were said to have a target of surplus Dem turnout (that is, Dem registered ballots - Rep registered ballots) of 400K. It's leveling off but still growing, and it's at 372K.

I don't know the modeling on that 400K number. I have to assume that getting 400K makes a victory quite likely (you have to set goals that are meaningful), and so if we top off at, say, 390K we're still in good shape. I don't know if that's true, though.

Still, I'd rather be us than them in PA and MI. I'd rather be them than us in AZ. I think GA and NC are both close. I'd rather be us in MI than them in either of those states -- and I'd rather be in the position of not *needing* either and definitely not needing both.

They called it a firewall - so yeah you would have to think 400 means "no chance they catch up at all" - so something less than that is a swing. Is it 370? Feels too close to 400, if 400 is truly a firewall

 

[Mundial]

So I think aGDevil2k has it right, there has clearly been a concerted effort by the right to get their voters out and early to stiffle any early election votes that the D's cast. They are also flooding the polls with red wave polling in an effort to skew the national polls and show the race as closer than it is. I also think that some of the bigger polls (CNN with new ownership, NYT) are overcompensatiing for the "silent" Trump voter effect. I don't think that exists anymore. Trump voters are proud and we are three cycles in, there is no shame anymore (see the Man In the High Castle rally at MSG last night).

I think when voters come out in full force from both parties, the D's win. There are just more D's in the US. I also believe that there is a silent Harris voter that is going to materialize (R's who hate what has happened to their party, women who will vote D in private, men who are horrified that their daughters could be raped and forced to have the child, etc.). I also think Trump is not going to get as much military votes as he thinks.

If Trump, the House, and/or the SC attempt a coup, Biden need only look to the steps that Lincoln took at the start of the Civil War in order to preserve the union. Edited to add that there is only one Armed Services in our country and it is not these make believe soldiers running around with Ar's.

Of course I could be wrong about the above.

 

[HeelYeah2012]

That’s his public, PR-rendered position. Anyone voting for Trump, after so many vile, treacherous things he’s said and done, cannot only care about their alleged financial fortunes (which doesn’t hold up) under Trump.

HY is too cowardly to own his real reasons publicly.

The most direct reasons I voted for Trump, all of which I have shared previously, are:

1) The average person's dollar stretched further than ever before during Trump's first presidency. Now everything from groceries to gas is totally out of control and creating financial strain on the middle class. I personally have been able to save and invest in accordance with my goals under all 3 of Obama/Trump/Biden, because I am young and well-educated and have worked my tail off in my career, so my personal situation has only gotten better under each successive administration since I graduated. But some of my less-fortunate family members are struggling the last 4 years after thriving under Trump.

2) Trump will work to reduce illegal immigration. I had a close childhood friend who died in 2023 of fentanyl overdose so this danger became personal to me in the last couple years.

3) No new wars during Trump's first term. And then after the Afghanistan withdrawal debacle from the Biden administration, it emboldened Putin to move on Ukraine, Hamas to slaughter innocent Jews and the ensuing slaughter of innocent Palestinians in Gaza since, and of course China flirting with Taiwan....

4) Democrats nationwide lost their ever-loving minds during COVID and it opened my mind to which side stands for personal freedom vs which side stands for authoritarian policies and the government being the answer to everything to save us from ourselves (hint: the authoritarian side is the side that likes to accuse the other side of being authoritarian)

5) Drain the swamp.. "The system" in Washington DC and their friends in the news media can't stand Donald Trump. The administrative state in this country is absurd and we need political outsiders in there to clean up as much of the mess as possible. Half the country was led to believe that everything with Joe Biden's health was fine for the last 4 years, and they bought it hook/line/sinker until it was exposed for the world to see on national TV during the debate. If Harris and others will downright lie to you about the mental state of the POTUS, what else are they lying about?

 

[lightbluenc]

The most direct reasons I voted for Trump, all of which I have shared previously, are:

1) The average person's dollar stretched further than ever before during Trump's first presidency. Now everything from groceries to gas is totally out of control and creating financial strain on the middle class. I personally have been able to save and invest in accordance with my goals under all 3 of Obama/Trump/Biden, because I am young and well-educated and have worked my tail off in my career, so my personal situation has only gotten better under each successive administration since I graduated. But some of my less-fortunate family members are struggling the last 4 years after thriving under Trump.

2) Trump will work to reduce illegal immigration. I had a close childhood friend who died in 2023 of fentanyl overdose so this danger became personal to me in the last couple years.

3) No new wars during Trump's first term. And then after the Afghanistan withdrawal debacle from the Biden administration, it emboldened Putin to move on Ukraine, Hamas to slaughter innocent Jews and the ensuing slaughter of innocent Palestinians in Gaza since, and of course China flirting with Taiwan....

4) Democrats nationwide lost their ever-loving minds during COVID and it opened my mind to which side stands for personal freedom vs which side stands for authoritarian policies and the government being the answer to everything to save us from ourselves (hint: the authoritarian side is the side that likes to accuse the other side of being authoritarian)

5) Drain the swamp.. "The system" in Washington DC and their friends in the news media can't stand Donald Trump. The administrative state in this country is absurd and we need political outsiders in there to clean up as much of the mess as possible. Half the country was led to believe that everything with Joe Biden's health was fine for the last 4 years, and they bought it hook/line/sinker until it was exposed for the world to see on national TV during the debate. If Harris and others will downright lie to you about the mental state of the POTUS, what else are they lying about?

Trump had his chance and he failed. He didn't stop fentanyl from coming in the country, he didn't stop people from dying when he threw out the pandemic playbook, he didn't stop inflation from happening. He made it all worse. That's a fact.

 

[TangledUpInBlue06]

The most direct reasons I voted for Trump, all of which I have shared previously, are:

1) The average person's dollar stretched further than ever before during Trump's first presidency. Now everything from groceries to gas is totally out of control and creating financial strain on the middle class. I personally have been able to save and invest in accordance with my goals under all 3 of Obama/Trump/Biden, because I am young and well-educated and have worked my tail off in my career, so my personal situation has only gotten better under each successive administration since I graduated. But some of my less-fortunate family members are struggling the last 4 years after thriving under Trump.

2) Trump will work to reduce illegal immigration. I had a close childhood friend who died in 2023 of fentanyl overdose so this danger became personal to me in the last couple years.

3) No new wars during Trump's first term. And then after the Afghanistan withdrawal debacle from the Biden administration, it emboldened Putin to move on Ukraine, Hamas to slaughter innocent Jews and the ensuing slaughter of innocent Palestinians in Gaza since, and of course China flirting with Taiwan....

4) Democrats nationwide lost their ever-loving minds during COVID and it opened my mind to which side stands for personal freedom vs which side stands for authoritarian policies and the government being the answer to everything to save us from ourselves (hint: the authoritarian side is the side that likes to accuse the other side of being authoritarian)

5) Drain the swamp.. "The system" in Washington DC and their friends in the news media can't stand Donald Trump. The administrative state in this country is absurd and we need political outsiders in there to clean up as much of the mess as possible. Half the country was led to believe that everything with Joe Biden's health was fine for the last 4 years, and they bought it hook/line/sinker until it was exposed for the world to see on national TV during the debate. If Harris and others will downright lie to you about the mental state of the POTUS, what else are they lying about?

2) Trump will work to reduce illegal immigration - Disagree. Trump had Rs kill a bipartisan border security bill. Why? Because accusing the other side of being soft on illegal immigration is a winning issue for Rs, and you can't point fingers if the problem is being addressed. It in no way serves Trump to resolve the illegal immigration issue. In fact, the opposite is true.

5) You want to make sure those in government don't lie to the public, so you're entrusting that job to....Donald Trump? Are you familiar with him? Or do you just prefer his lies?