2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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1moretimeagain said:
Regarding gas prices - Do you suspect the collapse in oil production during 2020 had anything to with the subsequent price spike when demand for gas returned?
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As has been reiterated ad nauseum, HY doesn't think beyond "Mongo president when gas prices high. Mongo bad". Of course like all idiotic MAGA's he doesn't apply the same criteria the other way - like Trump being POTUS when the pandemic hit.
 
hedge said:
I wonder why HY cited gas prices as evidence that things were totally out of control economically, with the implication being, of course, that it was Biden's fault?
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probably cause he saw them Biden stickers on the pumps
 
Calheel said:
They didn't sell very many cars with zoom, zoom, zoom.
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I thought it was a successful campaign. But then again, I pay even less attention to those sorts of things than I do college football. Anyway, I think you see the point and there are surely many examples of what I'm talking about.

For instance, the very successful "Waaaasssupppp!" ad. Or this one, that might be the most impressive ad I've ever seen.

 
superrific said:
That's half right. Traditional argumentative messaging doesn't work so much any more. But you can get people's attention for 5 seconds with ads on YouTube and other places. The images matter.

When I was in grad school, I did a paper on advertising in America in the 20th century. It was so bizarre to see ads in the old days. They were like newspaper articles. They would have at least dozens of words, if not hundreds. They were trying to convince people that their products were better. By the 80s, the ad pros realized that pictures are a thousand words; that a good logo is better than all those old text ads put together; etc.

Political media has been a bit slow to catch onto those trends, but the social media environment is forcing them to. Mazda used to sell cars with "zoom zoom zoom." That's the sort of thing we can do.

And this is why MAGA was successful for Trump. It's unfortunately a great slogan. It's so great that it's become its own political category. Meanwhile, Hillary had "I'm With Her," the worst slogan I can remember. MAGA is now worn out, and I don't know if Trump has anything new. "We're not going back" is very good.
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Good call. Literally why "Tariffs!" I guess is working. No one cares to know what it is, but if the message is, "I'll make them pay tariffs" then that's all you need.
 
GQNC said:
Observations from second day of canvassing for Harris/Waltz:
1) Most people still are not home or fail to come to the door
2) There does still appear to be some people that still have not decided on president and governor (or they’re lying)
3) Bringing up important issues like the ACA contribution to all health insurance availability regardless of preexisting conditions and for children to age 25 and the effects to women’s healthcare related to Dobbs decision can get nods of approval
4) some women feel they need to keep voices low so their MAGA husband watching TV in the other room does not hear the conversation
5) there is opportunity to help provide a ride to the polling place for some residents
6) when you are getting in 10,000+ steps canvassing, you don’t have the time or inclination to get depressed about polling data that is being reported by who knows what source
7) it is not a waste of time to help the GOTV effort. I encourage it for Harris/Stein/Hunt/Jackson/Green supporters. I do not encourage it for Trump/Robinson/etc supporters.
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Kudos
 
GQNC said:
Observations from second day of canvassing for Harris/Waltz:
1) Most people still are not home or fail to come to the door
2) There does still appear to be some people that still have not decided on president and governor (or they’re lying)
3) Bringing up important issues like the ACA contribution to all health insurance availability regardless of preexisting conditions and for children to age 25 and the effects to women’s healthcare related to Dobbs decision can get nods of approval
4) some women feel they need to keep voices low so their MAGA husband watching TV in the other room does not hear the conversation
5) there is opportunity to help provide a ride to the polling place for some residents
6) when you are getting in 10,000+ steps canvassing, you don’t have the time or inclination to get depressed about polling data that is being reported by who knows what source
7) it is not a waste of time to help the GOTV effort. I encourage it for Harris/Stein/Hunt/Jackson/Green supporters. I do not encourage it for Trump/Robinson/etc supporters.
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#4 gives me more hope for Harris than anything else
 
Trump got 46.1% of the vote in 2016 and 46.8% in 2020, and it does seem as if his ceiling is 47% max, more likely somewhere between 46 and 47%. So I remain skeptical of any poll that shows him getting over 47%. I mean, he could get more than that, but using his first two elections as a baseline it doesn't seem likely.
 
GQNC said:
Observations from second day of canvassing for Harris/Waltz:
1) Most people still are not home or fail to come to the door
2) There does still appear to be some people that still have not decided on president and governor (or they’re lying)
3) Bringing up important issues like the ACA contribution to all health insurance availability regardless of preexisting conditions and for children to age 25 and the effects to women’s healthcare related to Dobbs decision can get nods of approval
4) some women feel they need to keep voices low so their MAGA husband watching TV in the other room does not hear the conversation
5) there is opportunity to help provide a ride to the polling place for some residents
6) when you are getting in 10,000+ steps canvassing, you don’t have the time or inclination to get depressed about polling data that is being reported by who knows what source
7) it is not a waste of time to help the GOTV effort. I encourage it for Harris/Stein/Hunt/Jackson/Green supporters. I do not encourage it for Trump/Robinson/etc supporters.
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When canvassing do you have a checklist of which residences to hit or do you go to every door in the area you’re working?
 
Mulberry Heel said:
Trump got 46.1% of the vote in 2016 and 46.8% in 2020, and it does seem as if his ceiling is 47% max, more likely somewhere between 46 and 47%. So I remain skeptical of any poll that shows him getting over 47%. I mean, he could get more than that, but using his first two elections as a baseline it doesn't seem likely.
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It wouldn't shock me if he continues the trend from the first two elections and gets something like 47.5% of the popular vote. Of course it's hard to know what that means for his prospect of winning enough electoral votes.
 
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