2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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Not sure how much can be gleaned from this other than early voting continues to grow in popularity from pre-pandemic times, but 2020 remains an outlier for pretty much everything.
 
rodoheel said:
Females under 30 may break for Kamala at something like a 75/25 rate, but males of that age could easily break for Trump at something like a 60/40 rate or even worse. And that could be enough to push him over the top in swing states like Nevada.
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You’re not accounting for turnout. Young women turn out at much higher rates than younger men historically, much less with the current motivation fueled by Dobbs, and trump’s misogyny. Using your numbers, 60% of “not much” does not compare favorably to 75% of “a whole lot.”

Going after young (largely) white men is a desperate play that grew from the fact that they know they’re going to take a shellacking from women. The young male voter impact has been overstated from the beginning.
 
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Black turnout in NC keeps falling behind white turnout. Don't know if that means we're going to see a big election day bump or black people will again show poor turnout.

I completely get why black people can be frustrated with the government, but of course, not voting as a result only locks in future frustration.
 
superrific said:
Black turnout in NC keeps falling behind white turnout. Don't know if that means we're going to see a big election day bump or black people will again show poor turnout.

I completely get why black people can be frustrated with the government, but of course, not voting as a result only locks in future frustration.
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We’ll see what happens but my guess is black turnout in NC will end up being higher than 2016 or 2020, but a little behind 2012.
 
WaynetheDrain said:
Looking Good A Low Down Dirty Shame GIF by Bounce
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I think that's pretty close to reality. My brother lives in Michigan. He wasn't going to vote because "humans are awful" (he's very much liberal) but the Kamala campaign essentially badgered him into doing so.

My wife's family also lives in Michigan. They've heard nothing. Her aunt was desperately trying to figure out how to do her absentee ballot and there was nobody from Trump campaign to help her.
 
superrific said:
Ah yes, the classic two letter abbreviation for one word. It's like when people say out loud "Dubya Dubya Two." That's more of an old timer thing and maybe the younger folks don't get the reference.
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Its also what comes up on voter lookup on NC's website
 
superrific said:
Black turnout in NC keeps falling behind white turnout. Don't know if that means we're going to see a big election day bump or black people will again show poor turnout.

I completely get why black people can be frustrated with the government, but of course, not voting as a result only locks in future frustration.
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Bad news on NC. Being from Georgia, I have this concern about my state. Not sure I see a problem scrolling thru early voting by county thou. My concern is that there is no Raphael Warnock or Stacey Abrams on the ballot this time around.
 
Details from YouGov poll of NC:

“… Registered voters who were also likely voters narrowly changed support, with both Harris and Trump receiving 47 percent, the poll showed.

The poll also showed that 20 percent of respondents said they were more likely to vote because of the hurricane, compared to 2 percent who said they are less likely to vote.

The survey revealed that the majority of registered voters, 59 percent, said they, their families, or close friends had been impacted by Helene, with 21 percent saying they experienced “a lot of impact.”

Governmental agencies’ responses are a main concern in voters’ minds, the poll revealed, with 68 percent of Democrats saying that federal and state agencies are doing either “very good” or “good.” Twenty-four percent of Republicans said the same, the survey showed.

Meanwhile, 57 percent of Republicans said agencies were doing a “very poor” or “poor” job, compared to the 12 percent of Democrats that said the same, the poll found.

Eighty-four percent of Republicans said Trump would likely provide resources to the state in the aftermath of Helene, while 89 percent of Democrats said the same of Harris.

The top issues for North Carolina voters were the economy at 71 percent, immigration at 41 percent and health care at 34 percent, the survey found.

The majority of voters, 62 percent, either said it was either “highly likely” or “somewhat likely” that campaign workers would “try to fraudulently change the outcome of the election,” the survey found.

Nearly 50 percent of respondents said they were “not at all” confident that Trump would accept the election results, the survey revealed. If Trump wins, 65 percent said they were “very” or “somewhat” confident Harris would accept the results, compared to 36 percent who said they were “not at all” or “only a little” confident. …”

thehill.com

Harris, Trump tied in North Carolina with Helene weighing on voters’ minds: Survey

Vice President Harris and former President Trump are neck-and-neck in North Carolina, as the aftermath of Hurricane Helene weighs on voters’ minds, according to a new Elon University Poll. Th…
thehill.com
 
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