2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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CFordUNC said:
I think North Carolina goes blue. Trump is obviously a bad enough candidate in his own right and could easily lose North Carolina of his own accord, but I think that having Mark Robinson on the ticket will be the dagger. I don't buy into the notion that there are a whole bunch of Trump-Stein voters out there. I think there are enough Republicans who will vote for Harris/Stein, or who won't vote at all, to help flip North Carolina, which was already the most razor-thin of margins in Trump's favor in 2020. I also think that the heavily-Indian population of the Research Triangle area is an under-appreciated voting bloc with a candidate who is partially Indian-American on the ballot.
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I'm curious how much of that Indian RTP population can vote though, I assume the vast majority are here on working visas or in the process of gaining citizenship.
 
Does anyone have the link to the updated PA early/mail in numbers? Went back a few pages but it’s been a couple of days.
 
mpaer said:
We are weird in NC . I think Indys are slightly ahead of Dems and Pubs in total registration My only "hope " is that I know a lot of 30-40 types that are registerd as Indys-and they will NOT vote for orangeturd
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Turnout among indies is considerably lower than either party.
 
You know what would be even better? 500K. Maybe a mil. But I'm pretty happy with 380K with a week to go. Plus, there's a USPS delay. We might already be at 400K, just the ballots are in the mail.
 
mpaer said:
We are weird in NC . I think Indys are slightly ahead of Dems and Pubs in total registration My only "hope " is that I know a lot of 30-40 types that are registerd as Indys-and they will NOT vote for orangeturd
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I’m one of them. I’m an “Indy” because I believe there are more than 2 political ideologies that can benefit society and don’t want to be tied to one. Since obviously democratic ideologies benefit the greater good I will always be straight D. Independent D voters far outnumber R voters. I think we get Harris.
 
Reference point for NC election turnout -

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2020 had only slightly elevated in person early voting but a surge in absentee voting (due to COVID, I assume). TBD whether we return to the pre-pandemic 5% absentee and continued uptick in early voting, but the pre-pandemic pattern suggests at least a third of the final tally might be cast on Election Day.

And the absentee totals in NC are pretty light so far (though leaning a bit Democratic by registration).

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superrific said:
Seth Abramson is such a fool. Boy does he lose the plot.

It's not good for Kamala to be down 5 in Kansas. She needs to be down 15. Seriously -- there are no points for coming in a close second and it just wastes support.
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I'm not highlighting Seth so much as saying if Trump is up by only 5 in red Kansas, that's alarming.

I'm pretty tired but I'm not following what you mean by she should be down even further...
 
Rock said:
I'm not highlighting Seth so much as saying if Trump is up by only 5 in red Kansas, that's alarming.

I'm pretty tired but I'm not following what you mean by she should be down even further...
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If the national polls put her at +1, then every point she is down in Kansas is a point she is making up elsewhere. If she was running at 0% in Kansas but 49% overall, it would mean she would be doing 51, 52 in Michigan and NC.
 
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