2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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HeelingAg said:
He's not dumb. He just isn't honest about what drives his political fealties.
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Agree. Pubs like HY are not dumb. But, as this article shows, many of them are EXTREMELY, and presumably willfully, uninformed.


The economy has also emerged as one of the five most frequently mentioned topics for Harris in every week dating to mid-August, although the sentiment of those mentions – whether the terms and tones used are positive or negative – varies across party lines.

“I’ve heard about her wanting to better the economy,” one Democrat wrote in the latest poll, while a Republican wrote that Harris was taking “credit for the economy being strong when, in fact, the economy was strong when Biden/Harris took over and then tanked the economy.”
 
rodoheel said:
It wouldn't shock me if he continues the trend from the first two elections and gets something like 47.5% of the popular vote. Of course it's hard to know what that means for his prospect of winning enough electoral votes.
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I just don't see him getting more than 47% at most. At any rate we'll all find out soon enough.
 
uncjhodges said:
porque no los dos
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I suppose that elicits a distinction between intellectual abilities and smart vs dumb. Lots of very dumb intelligent folk out there.

That said, I've seen enough CallaYeahs over the years to firmly believe they're in on the noxious shit, and merely hide behind the financials. I think most of whatever y'all are still reading from HY is contrived to appear "fiscally conservative" and "I vote my wallet" to hide the anti-social, xenophobic, and worse, barely an inch beneath the bullshit.

I mean, there's overwhelming data stating THIS presidency has been a huge boon to the middle class budget, and everything about ttump's tariff plan will crush everyone but the filthy rich under record setting inflation and market instability. I'm actually quite convinced the tariff shit is an oligarchic ploy to create instability, just like duration COVID, because in that space the rich get richer and more powerful (again, see COVID).
 
Expanding on the excellent point a poster made earlier today: yes social media seems to be what MAGA voters respond to. Could explain why Republicans tend to ignore ground games and focus on outrage to drive social media blood pressure. In this way they can achieve their voting "ceiling" rather then be stuck with their "floor" as the end voting result.

On the other hand, for Dems to achieve their "ceiling" then they must focus on their ground game. Pretty much always has been that way.

So if both sides do their job well, then the voting result is closer to each side's "ceiling". Which could mirror polling I suppose.

Unless those pesky undecided's come into play and actually break one way or the other.
 
BlueSmoke said:
Expanding on the excellent point a poster made earlier today: yes social media seems to be what MAGA voters respond to. Could explain why Republicans tend to ignore ground games and focus on outrage to drive social media blood pressure. In this way they can achieve their voting "ceiling" rather then be stuck with their "floor" as the end voting result.

On the other hand, for Dems to achieve their "ceiling" then they must focus on their ground game. Pretty much always has been that way.

So if both sides do their job well, then the voting result is closer to each side's "ceiling". Which could mirror polling I suppose.

Unless those pesky undecided's come into play and actually break one way or the other.
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I don't think this is a conscious choice. From what I understand, the ground game woes for the GOP are because:

1. Trump was diverting so much of the donations to his own use, and thus the campaign didn't have the money to invest in anything proper.
2. Trump installed an idiot as head of the RNC, who was then promptly convinced to hand over GOTV to Turning Point USA, which had no idea how to do it. Then Elon stepped in, but he also doesn't know how to do it.

I very much doubt that the GOP doesn't want or care about a ground game. Rather, I think this is a cost of the corruption and nepotism that drives the Trump campaign.
 
superrific said:
I don't think this is a conscious choice. From what I understand, the ground game woes for the GOP are because:

1. Trump was diverting so much of the donations to his own use, and thus the campaign didn't have the money to invest in anything proper.
2. Trump installed an idiot as head of the RNC, who was then promptly convinced to hand over GOTV to Turning Point USA, which had no idea how to do it. Then Elon stepped in, but he also doesn't know how to do it.

I very much doubt that the GOP doesn't want or care about a ground game. Rather, I think this is a cost of the corruption and nepotism that drives the Trump campaign.
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That, and the GOP has no real interest in organizing or governing anything. It's a party of chaos and destruction, not organization.
 
lawtig02 said:
That, and the GOP has no real interest in organizing or governing anything. It's a party of chaos and destruction, not organization.
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Trump's GOP. It wasn't always that way. Remember when the GOP was the party of discipline? As Bill said, "Dems fall in love, Republicans fall in line." Karl Rove ran a tight ship.
 
8992Tiger said:
For the GQPers, messaging = lying, and you are right, they are damn good at it.
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Policy is complicated. When you don’t have a policy and aren’t encumbered by pesky things like facts, messaging is easy.

Taking real policies and boiling then down to 3 word messages that’ll fit on a bumper sticker is hard, if not impossible
 
lawtig02 said:
Pubs like HY are not dumb. But, as this article shows, many of them are EXTREMELY, and presumably willfully, uninformed.
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But how can anybody be uniformed about gas prices? Presumably he is filling up his car weekly, he can see with his own eyes that gas prices are coming down and in any event even the highest recent prices are nowhere near where they were 15+ years ago. Granted, that number cited as the high water mark from 2008 was an outlier, but gas has been in the mid-$2 to low $3 range for quite some time, so why would somebody armed with that first-hand knowledge cite gas prices as evidence that everything is "totally out of control and creating financial strain on the middle class"?
 
hedge said:
But how can anybody be uniformed about gas prices? Presumably he is filling up his car weekly, he can see with his own eyes that gas prices are coming down and in any event even the highest recent prices are nowhere near where they were 15+ years ago. Granted, that number cited as the high water mark from 2008 was an outlier, but gas has been in the mid-$2 to low $3 range for quite some time, so why would somebody armed with that first-hand knowledge cite gas prices as evidence that everything is "totally out of control and creating financial strain on the middle class"?
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Because "pRiCeS!!!!!!!!!!!!" is cover.
 
CFordUNC said:
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Ah yes, Rogan showing off his grasp of statistics. Hey assholes! If you're on TV, your ratings are based on small samples! Did you know that?

I'm guessing this is what happened: Trump got an internal poll putting him at 47 1/2 and he's pissed about it. So of course they didn't poll. Notice how the example of the fake poll was 51-49 Trump, and then he inverts it. What's the difference between 49 and 47 1/2. He was hoping for 49 and he got 47 1/2.
 
We are definitely at the point where any of the 4 results (Harris big, Harris tight, Trump big, Trump tight) are in play. Nation holds its breath until early Wednesday AM.
 
WaynetheDrain said:
Maybe even a day or two beyond that.
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But probably not. It's more likely we know before Wed AM than Thursday. If Kamala wins NC or GA, it's probably over. If she wins both, Trump would need a miracle. MI and WI will probably tally their votes on Tuesday night. PA is going to be the problem because of their legislature, but if we are winning MI and WI by 3 or more points, PA will almost surely be in our camp.

And if we lose MI or WI without winning NC or GA, we will very likely lose.
 
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