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We are weird in NC . I think Indys are slightly ahead of Dems and Pubs in total registration My only "hope " is that I know a lot of 30-40 types that are registerd as Indys-and they will NOT vote for orangeturd
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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden
- Thread starter nycfan
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We are weird in NC . I think Indys are slightly ahead of Dems and Pubs in total registration My only "hope " is that I know a lot of 30-40 types that are registerd as Indys-and they will NOT vote for orangeturd
RockyMtnHoo
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Does anyone have the link to the updated PA early/mail in numbers? Went back a few pages but it’s been a couple of days.
superrific
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Turnout among indies is considerably lower than either party.
superrific
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As of this morning we were up about 380K in registration for returned ballots.
quakerdevil
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7 days to get the firewall up to 400K. Only need to win by 3K per day
RockyMtnHoo
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Would be nice if we hit 400K with a week still to go, and before factoring in the weekend racist MSG fiasco.
superrific
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You know what would be even better? 500K. Maybe a mil. But I'm pretty happy with 380K with a week to go. Plus, there's a USPS delay. We might already be at 400K, just the ballots are in the mail.
Macksbrownies
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I’m one of them. I’m an “Indy” because I believe there are more than 2 political ideologies that can benefit society and don’t want to be tied to one. Since obviously democratic ideologies benefit the greater good I will always be straight D. Independent D voters far outnumber R voters. I think we get Harris.
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Early Voting Tracker
Tracking swing state early votes cast in the 2024 general election. Featuring absentee and in-person early vote breakdowns by county.
projects.votehub.com
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Reference point for NC election turnout -
2020 had only slightly elevated in person early voting but a surge in absentee voting (due to COVID, I assume). TBD whether we return to the pre-pandemic 5% absentee and continued uptick in early voting, but the pre-pandemic pattern suggests at least a third of the final tally might be cast on Election Day.
And the absentee totals in NC are pretty light so far (though leaning a bit Democratic by registration).
2020 had only slightly elevated in person early voting but a surge in absentee voting (due to COVID, I assume). TBD whether we return to the pre-pandemic 5% absentee and continued uptick in early voting, but the pre-pandemic pattern suggests at least a third of the final tally might be cast on Election Day.
And the absentee totals in NC are pretty light so far (though leaning a bit Democratic by registration).
superrific
Legend of ZZL
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Seth Abramson is such a fool. Boy does he lose the plot.
It's not good for Kamala to be down 5 in Kansas. She needs to be down 15. Seriously -- there are no points for coming in a close second and it just wastes support.
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I'm not highlighting Seth so much as saying if Trump is up by only 5 in red Kansas, that's alarming.
I'm pretty tired but I'm not following what you mean by she should be down even further...
superrific
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If the national polls put her at +1, then every point she is down in Kansas is a point she is making up elsewhere. If she was running at 0% in Kansas but 49% overall, it would mean she would be doing 51, 52 in Michigan and NC.
ChileG
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I mean, we are referencing a guy who said he is voting for Trump and one of the top five reasons is because he thinks Trump apparently never lies.
ChileG
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Because he has to conjure up reasons to vote for Trump.
CFordUNC
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RockyMtnHoo
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I have my doubts about 5% in Kansas, but I also have doubts some battlegrounds with a razor thin margin are actually that close.
rodoheel
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At this rate, Trump may execute Hinchcliffe on line TV by Thursday
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TBF, this is an interesting development that is consistent with the Blue/Red divide receding toward the national median. There is some of the same happening in Texas, for example, and in NY and NJ.
It helps explain an apparent anomaly (compared to other elections since 2012) that CBS pollsters were commenting on — if it is not a polling mirage, it could mean that Dems may not need to be +3 nationally to believe polls are tied in swing states.
There are still plenty of outliers (Maryland and Mississippi don’t seem to be reverting to the mean at this point), but the movement seems to be reflective of the continuing shift of party alignment among educated and working class voters.
I don’t think it is a “holy shit the polling error problem has suddenly flipped to undercounting Democratic votes” discovery or moment, but I also don’t think it is meaningless.
Problem is for us all, none of these theories can be tested except by actual results, and if the election is as close as current polls suggest, we’re in for a divisive series of court battles to possibly untangle a winner.