2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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HintonJamesHeel said:
Muslims in Michigan are voting Trump because Harris is supporting Israel? Make it make sense.
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We'll find out just how many. There will be some, but what I've been hearing (and also reading, to some extent) a lot of that is performative noise. They make a big deal in public about punishing Kamala; then they go back and fill out their absentee ballot voting for her.

Kamala will underperform Biden with that community, but let's not exaggerate how important it is. There are about 300K Arabs in Michigan. Leaving kids aside, how many of those are citizens who can vote? Not 300K. There are 200K Muslim registered voters in all of Michigan, and there are significant communities of South Asians (my son, who studies engineering at U of M starting this fall, has observed that like a fifth of his classmates are Indian, and probably as many professors). Not all Arab voters are Muslim, but I would be surprised if there were even 200K registered Arabs. Biden won them last time 70-30, which is a net gain of 60K votes under reasonable turnout assumptions.

Not a small bloc, but probably not election changing. Plus, these people's complaints are not new. They have been answering surveys all year. Their tepid support for Kamala is baked into the polls.
 
Voters who are upset when they think their votes are being taken for granted, tend to stay at home. Could be part of driving lack of turnout in some places.
 
Enigma94 said:
It's probably better for me to say I won't feel sorry for them rather than I hope it happens. But why should I care how they are affected if they help unleash a monster on all of us? I feel the same about anyone who votes for Trump.
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I can honestly say that the inevitable outcome would make me sad, and then I’d likely have a concurrent “I guess a lot of folks decided to fuck around, and now we’re finding out”.
 
Here's what I would tell Arab voters if they would listen to me.

It's not just that they will deport you. They will deport your kids too. Even the ones who are born here, who you think are protected because they are citizens. Well, Trump is absolutely going to push the Supreme Court to interpret the 14th Amendment to eliminate birth right citizenship, and if they do, birthright citizens will see their citizenship revoked. Is it legal to apply the Supreme Court's ruling retroactively? Probably not, but Trump doesn't care about that. It would be up to the Supreme Court -- the same Supreme Court so in the tank for Trump that they put him above the law. Are they going to stop him? Can they even stop him, given that they gave him immunity and this would fall into his "official" duties so he could violate the rights of every single one of those citizens and pay no price for it.

This is the risk that nobody is talking about, but it's absolutely real. Is it likely to happen if Trump is elected? I have no idea. But a distinct possibility. Absolutely. Citizenship will not save brown people the way they think it will. Not from these people.
 
Thomas couldn't have been more than 20 when I first met him. He comes from an old political family and he and both his brothers are really sharp people. I don't know if he's right but I know he did his research.
 
Icky Mettle said:
I guess the question there is whether they are comparing the 2024 early vote numbers thus far to the 2020 early vote totals at the end of early voting. If that’s the case, that’s not bad. Not only are there still a few days left of early voting, but the pandemic likely resulted in higher early voting numbers, and lower Election Day turnout, that won’t be matched this time around. 2016 and 2012 would probably be better comparisons, but I don’t think I’ve seen those.

ETA: I looked at the Politico article after writing this post. I see it says 36,000 more Black voters voted by this point in the 2020 election. Again, that may not be a bad thing considering the way the pandemic likely impacted voting.
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The absolute numbers aren't important. This is one of many ways you can tell that math is not a prereq for journalism.

What is important, though, is turnout ratio. I don't know what the final turnout ratio is going to be, but right now it's just over 10% and that's danger territory for Dems.

On the other hand, Tuesday and Wednesday were the biggest days of Latino early voting this cycle. Hmm. I don't know, maybe that was the way it was going to shake down all along. I've read that Latinos tend to vote on election day, or at least late in the voting cycle. But maybe it was a spike in reaction to something that happened over the weekend.
 
Basically, Thomas Mills thinks Dems will go into election day in better shape than 4 years ago
More democrat votes early than 2020 at this time. AA turnout has reduced their deficit to only 26K
500,000 AA who haven’t voted yet, voted in 2018, 2020, or 2022
16% of unaffiliated voters so far are new voters
Of people voting early, only 3% democrats are people that typically vote on election day, compared to 9% of republicans
 
Duke Mu said:
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So, a bit dicey to do this, but what the heck.

Per VoteHub, through yesterday, 2,197,855 people have already voted in Michigan. IF that poll is right, that would mean the total banked votes so far should look like this:

Harris 1,340,692
Trump. 769,249
Others 87,914

In 2020, 5,547,186 Michiganders voted in the presidential election, representing turnout of 74% of registered voters that year.

In 2016, Michigan turnout was only 64.59%.

In 2024, there are 7,263,931 registered voters. If we see 2020 turnout again, a modern record, we would expect 5,375,308 votes to be cast. In that case, the early votes to date would represent 40.9% of the total.

If we have 2016 turnout, we would get 4,691,773 total votes. In that case, the early votes so far would represent 46.8% of the total votes have already been cast and Trump would need a larger margin in the remaining votes cast today through Election Day than in a 2020 turnout to come back and win.

It’s obvious but the question we won’t know until the polls close is the total turnout and without knowing the total turnout we don’t know exactly how substantial Kamala’s early vote lead really is (assuming the polling about banked votes is accurate and still subject to the margin of error if so).
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I am not at all worried about Michigan. I'm not 100% certain that it will go blue, but I'm close to 100% certain that it will not be Trump's tipping point state. Given what I see in polls, have read in articles, and what I know about the sad state of the Michigan GOP, Michigan is by far the least likely of the blue wall states to go Trump. It had the healthiest margin, IIRC, of those states in 2020. If Kamala loses Michigan, she will almost certainly lose WI and/or PA.
 
nycfan said:
So, a bit dicey to do this, but what the heck.

Per VoteHub, through yesterday, 2,197,855 people have already voted in Michigan. IF that poll is right, that would mean the total banked votes so far should look like this:

Harris 1,340,692
Trump. 769,249
Others 87,914

In 2020, 5,547,186 Michiganders voted in the presidential election, representing turnout of 74% of registered voters that year.

In 2016, Michigan turnout was only 64.59%.

In 2024, there are 7,263,931 registered voters. If we see 2020 turnout again, a modern record, we would expect 5,375,308 votes to be cast. In that case, the early votes to date would represent 40.9% of the total.

If we have 2016 turnout, we would get 4,691,773 total votes. In that case, the early votes so far would represent 46.8% of the total votes have already been cast and Trump would need a larger margin in the remaining votes cast today through Election Day than in a 2020 turnout to come back and win.

It’s obvious but the question we won’t know until the polls close is the total turnout and without knowing the total turnout we don’t know exactly how substantial Kamala’s early vote lead really is (assuming the polling about banked votes is accurate and still subject to the margin of error if so).
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By the way, that poll is, I think, quite dated at this point. I've seen that graphic many times.
 
The key sentences from that Politico article, at least to me. I'm all in on this theory now

The implications for next week’s election results are unclear; among registered Republicans, women are voting early more than men, too. But the high female turnout is encouraging to Democratic strategists, who expected that a surge in Republican turnout would result in more gender parity among early voters.
 
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CNN North Carolina cross-tabs:

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Gender gap seems much more prevalent in NC than Georgia for some reason.
 
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