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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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ZZLPHeels said:
NYT polls giving Trump a slight lead in NC, PA, GA, NV. I hate to say it but my gut tells me that he wins resoundingly on Tuesday. Feeling a Robinson loss but a Morrow win.
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Trump winning resoundingly isn’t gonna happen. Even if he wins all 7 swing states (which is unlikely because I can’t see him winning Michigan), it won’t be a resounding electoral college win unless he pulls a surprise or two like Virginia, etc.
 
nycfan said:
Arizona seems to be reverting to its pre-pandemic Republican mean:

“… Most voters in Arizona vote early. It’s been that way for decades. We are a pioneer of early voting. If you just look at the returns and how heavily Republican they are, the pattern is very much a pre-2020 pattern where Republicans are dominating. No one knows how they voted, but you’ve got to think that a lot of those are going to be for Trump and down-ballot Republicans, and among the independent voters too. So just looking at the trend lines, Republicans are up, Democrats are down, independents are dramatically down. Those are going to be the deciders, and Republicans are feeling pretty good. …

What I’m saying is that whatever is happening on the left doesn’t seem to be working yet. And Charlie Kirk’s organization is based in Arizona, and so I think that’s what makes it the outlier in these other states. They know Arizona very well. They’ve been here for more than a decade. They definitely see this election as their last stand. This election is either going to make or break Turning Point.

… These are the scenarios that Republicans are hoping for: There’s the pro-Trump wing, which hopes that Trump wins Arizona, Lake loses by a margin that’s too big to contest in a serious way, and Trump wins the presidency. And the anti-Trump Republican wing of the party hopes that Trump wins Arizona to put to rest his denialism, but loses nationally. And that Kari Lake loses by a big margin too large to contest. …”

nymag.com

Why Arizona Is Looking Trumpier in 2024

Yvonne Wingett Sanchez, an expert in Grand Canyon State politics, on Kamala Harris’s uphill battle.
nymag.com nymag.com
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I’m an Arizona resident, and I’ll say this: Don’t write Arizona off yet. Before 2020, the GOP always outvoted Democrats in early voting, particularly by mail. There are a lot of retirees out here, the majority of which are GOP, and they always vote early by mail. The Democrats have a lot of Hispanic voters in the coalition out here, and they generally don’t vote early.

The demographics are changing out here, and although Arizona is only flirting with the possibility of being a blue state right now, I believe in the next decade we will be reliably blue every election.

Will Kamala win Arizona? I don’t know. The border thing may hurt. But she’s got a lot of support out here, and there seems to be more support for her than I ever saw for Biden in 2020. Also, Arizona is one of the few states that has roundly rejected Trumpism at nearly every turn since 2018.

It’s not over in Arizona.
 
ZZLPHeels said:
NYT polls giving Trump a slight lead in NC, PA, GA, NV. I hate to say it but my gut tells me that he wins resoundingly on Tuesday. Feeling a Robinson loss but a Morrow win.
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You might just be experiencing gas. Trump could certainly win, but if there is a “resounding” win, it will be Kamala that gets it.

1. Better ground game.
2. Higher ceiling to get the undecideds.
3. Gender gap voting results so far.
4. Kamala is depending on high-propensity voters to come out. Trump NEEDS low-propensity voters to even get above 47%.
 
Has anyone seen any polls for Morrow vs Green or do those races not get polled just because they aren’t high profile enough?

Obviously Robinson will lose handily. But I do worry that people won’t know who Morrow and Green are.
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
Has anyone seen any polls for Morrow vs Green or do those races not get polled just because they aren’t high profile enough?

Obviously Robinson will lose handily. But I do worry that people won’t know who Morrow and Green are.
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Most recent Elon University poll has some down ballot polling too

www.elon.edu

Elon Poll – October 29, 2024

Elon Poll: Hurricane Helene factors into dead-even presidential election in N.C. Full Report (PDF) Report Analysis (PDF) A new survey by the Elon University Poll has found that Hurricane Helene...
www.elon.edu www.elon.edu
 
“…
The election, of course, is decided in the swing states. But there, the polls suggest Harris is also banking a sizable advantage heading into Election Day.
Polls from Marist, CNN, Fox News and USA Today-Suffolk University show that her leads among those who say they’ve already cast ballots look like this:
  • Arizona: 9-12 points
  • Georgia: 7-10 points
  • Michigan: 26-39 points
  • North Carolina: 2-6 points
  • Pennsylvania: 17-35 points
  • Wisconsin: 22-60 points
The only state where a major, high-quality poll has shown Harris actually trailing among those who have already cast ballots is CNN’s poll of Nevada, which shows Trump leading by six points.

… All of these margins pale next to Biden’s leads in late 2020 polls of the same states. But again, they’re much closer to 2016. Hillary Clinton had only a slight lead among early voters in Arizona and Nevada, for instance. A late poll in Michigan showed her margin there at 27 points. And a late Siena poll of North Carolina showed her ahead by nine points among early voters.

… But the sum total is that it looks as if Harris will at least go into Election Day with a substantial lead banked among those who have already cast ballots. It’s good for Republicans that this margin doesn’t appear close to as large as it was in 2020, but it’s still a substantial lead that they’ll have to make up.

They did so in 2016, when many wagered that the early vote was among the many strong signs for Clinton.

Maybe the lesson is that we should just wait and see.”

 
nycfan said:
I have been hoping so but then it seems to not align with NC voting results in 2020 when there were a similar number of undesignated. I dunno — it could include a lot of dopes who are bad at filling out forms.
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I'm listed as "undesignated". Pretty sure it's something with using the DMV forms to update voter registration and how it is then entered in the system. I'd expect it to match the underlying gender splits 50/50
 
nycfan said:
“…
The election, of course, is decided in the swing states. But there, the polls suggest Harris is also banking a sizable advantage heading into Election Day.
Polls from Marist, CNN, Fox News and USA Today-Suffolk University show that her leads among those who say they’ve already cast ballots look like this:
  • Arizona: 9-12 points
  • Georgia: 7-10 points
  • Michigan: 26-39 points
  • North Carolina: 2-6 points
  • Pennsylvania: 17-35 points
  • Wisconsin: 22-60 points
The only state where a major, high-quality poll has shown Harris actually trailing among those who have already cast ballots is CNN’s poll of Nevada, which shows Trump leading by six points.

… All of these margins pale next to Biden’s leads in late 2020 polls of the same states. But again, they’re much closer to 2016. Hillary Clinton had only a slight lead among early voters in Arizona and Nevada, for instance. A late poll in Michigan showed her margin there at 27 points. And a late Siena poll of North Carolina showed her ahead by nine points among early voters.

… But the sum total is that it looks as if Harris will at least go into Election Day with a substantial lead banked among those who have already cast ballots. It’s good for Republicans that this margin doesn’t appear close to as large as it was in 2020, but it’s still a substantial lead that they’ll have to make up.

They did so in 2016, when many wagered that the early vote was among the many strong signs for Clinton.

Maybe the lesson is that we should just wait and see.”

Click to expand...
Any numbers on how early voting looked by party in 2016 vs 2024?
 
nycfan said:
“…
The election, of course, is decided in the swing states. But there, the polls suggest Harris is also banking a sizable advantage heading into Election Day.
Polls from Marist, CNN, Fox News and USA Today-Suffolk University show that her leads among those who say they’ve already cast ballots look like this:
  • Arizona: 9-12 points
  • Georgia: 7-10 points
  • Michigan: 26-39 points
  • North Carolina: 2-6 points
  • Pennsylvania: 17-35 points
  • Wisconsin: 22-60 points
The only state where a major, high-quality poll has shown Harris actually trailing among those who have already cast ballots is CNN’s poll of Nevada, which shows Trump leading by six points.

… All of these margins pale next to Biden’s leads in late 2020 polls of the same states. But again, they’re much closer to 2016. Hillary Clinton had only a slight lead among early voters in Arizona and Nevada, for instance. A late poll in Michigan showed her margin there at 27 points. And a late Siena poll of North Carolina showed her ahead by nine points among early voters.

… But the sum total is that it looks as if Harris will at least go into Election Day with a substantial lead banked among those who have already cast ballots. It’s good for Republicans that this margin doesn’t appear close to as large as it was in 2020, but it’s still a substantial lead that they’ll have to make up.

They did so in 2016, when many wagered that the early vote was among the many strong signs for Clinton.

Maybe the lesson is that we should just wait and see.”

Click to expand...
But the state polls were wildly off that election cycle. I'm not worried about a repeat of that.
 
North Carolina update:

“…
Compared to data from 2020 at the same point — five days before Election Day — 2024 is experiencing a slight uptick in in-person early voting but a marked drop in absentee ballots counted. Both rates have gone up since 2016.

At this point in 2020, approximately 3.9 million voters had cast ballots, with 3.03 million casting ballots at in-person early voting locations and 864,929 voters casting ballots absentee.

At this point in 2016, approximately 2.35 million voters had voted early, with about 2.22 million in person at early voting locations and 132,328 absentee ballots.

So far this year, Republican voters have cast more votes than Democrats or unaffiliated voters. Republicans make up 29.89 percent of the state’s registered voters; 52.63 percent of them have already cast votes, making up 33.97 percent of total votes cast.

Democrats make up 31.28 percent of the state’s voters; 48.38 percent of them have voted, accounting for 32.68 percent of the votes cast.

Unaffiliated voters are the state’s largest bloc of registered voters, at 37.8 percent. Those voters lag in votes cast, at 40.09 percent, making up 32.73 percent of total votes cast.“

thehill.com

Nearly half of NC’s registered voters have cast a ballot

Nearly half of all registered voters in North Carolina have cast a ballot in the 2024 general election already, according to a Thursday update from the state. Of the roughly 7.82 million registered…
thehill.com
 
A prediction on the topic of turnout....

I believe there will be around 5%-10% fewer votes for R and D this election and less votes overall when compared to 2020.
 
Apparently everyone has a different number on what the democratic firewall is in PA, but looks like the early vote lead is about 380K without counting independents.

177K unaffiliated ballots are in, so if that is 60/40 in Harris’ favor then the lead would already be 400k+
 
HeelInTheOzarks said:
Apparently everyone has a different number on what the democratic firewall is in PA, but looks like the early vote lead is about 380K without counting independents.

177K unaffiliated ballots are in, so if that is 60/40 in Harris’ favor then the lead would already be 400k+
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There's no democratic firewall in PA. That was, as far as I can tell, made up by a college student.
 
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