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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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superrific said:
In fairness to corporate America, Trump has only gotten completely fixated on tariffs recently. Before, they were a talking point. Not necessarily something he was going to do. Now they are the linch pin of his entire economic policy, meaning that he will do them because he is all-in on that at the moment and he doesn't need Congress.
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And unfortunately tariffs will be the least of our problems when President Musk and VP Thiel destroy the USD, freak the markets, and crash the economy.
 
lightbluenc said:
I swear Elon wants to the crash the economy and then push crypto as some sort of global economic savior.
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If so, joke's on him.

1. Already, BTC does not look like a hedging or alternative asset. It's more of a high-beta proxy for Nasdaq. A plummet in stocks will very likely cause a plummet in crypto.

2. In a panic, all correlations go to 1. We saw that in 2008. Before crypto was around.

3. If prices go up, people will start . . . selling BTC for the cash, since they can spend cash and not BTC. If people lose their jobs, they will start spending BTC.

4. I've never seen an asset class as vulnerable to a crash as crypto. Literally the entire value of crypto is confidence. If a financial panic sets in, and its value starts to drop, and people panic some more -- well, you know, the actual intrinsic value of a BTC is approximately, if not precisely, zero. Those are the types of assets that usually crash (and in some cases to zero) badly in severe downturns.

I won't say that watching crypto get destroyed would make it all worthwhile, but it would be a substantial side benefit. The sooner we can rid ourselves of crypto, the better.
 
nycfan said:
This does not give me warm fuzzies

IMG_3407.jpeg

That disproportionate white/Republican vote early seems very pro-Trump. The CNN cross-tabs didn’t include a subset for those who already voted.

Also, I think the undesignated by gender is warping perception of a gender gap in voting. I think most of the undesignated are probably people who suck at completing forms, and could well be disproportionately men based on the gender gap in registration generally. NC demographics are that just under 49% of the total population are men.
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I actually feel very good about that. The black turnout is not bad. And you know the growth in UA has been fueled more by dems moving there than Rs. White vote is also getting more democrat than before. Especially with us folks that actually know how to read.

Gender gap is very positive.
 
aGDevil2k said:
I actually feel very good about that. The black turnout is not bad. And you know the growth in UA has been fueled more by dems moving there than Rs.

Gender gap is very positive.
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Here is the gender gap in 2008, last time a Dem won NC for POTUS:

IMG_3408.jpeg
But then undesignated gender was less than 1%; now it is over 8% of registered voters and over 6% of folks who have already voted.
 
nycfan said:
Here is the gender gap in 2008, last time a Dem won NC for POTUS:

IMG_3408.jpeg
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Wait so we are comparing things to 2008 numbers?

The state has gotten more urban, more educated, and more diverse in that time. Also, a lot of the undesignated gender folks are women. It's probably more 50/50 which gets you closer to the hallowed 2008 numbers.

You are fretting....I hope after Tuesday you delete twitter and work on escaping that toxic hellstorm. I cant imagine the mental toll.
 
nycfan said:
IMG_3401.jpeg

politicalwire.com

The Latest Swing State Polls

GEORGIA Trump 48%, Harris 47% (CNN) MICHIGAN Harris 49%, Trump 45% (UMass Lowell) Harris 47%, Trump 46% (Washington Post) Trump 48%, Harris 47% (Mitchell Research) NORTH CAROLINA Trump 47%, Harris 45% (UMass Lowell) Harris 48%,
politicalwire.com politicalwire.com

I’ll be out of pocket for a bit today getting a wisdom tooth removed. See if you can divine the election outcome before I get back.

teeth pain GIF by Christina Lu
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Omg NYC Fan is really young!
 
aGDevil2k said:
Wait so we are comparing things to 2008 numbers?

The state has gotten more urban, more educated, and more diverse in that time. Also, a lot of the undesignated gender folks are women. It's probably more 50/50 which gets you closer to the hallowed 2008 numbers.

You are fretting....I hope after Tuesday you delete twitter and work on escaping that toxic hellstorm. I cant imagine the mental toll.
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I’ve got time today due to a wisdom tooth extraction — basically propped up in bed reading voter data like a demented tarot card novice.

Jenny Lewis Laughing GIF by Spotify
 
Enigma94 said:
Maybe I'm wrong but I have to think undesignated gender isn't likely to be Trump voters.
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I have been hoping so but then it seems to not align with NC voting results in 2020 when there were a similar number of undesignated. I dunno — it could include a lot of dopes who are bad at filling out forms.
 
Enigma94 said:
Maybe I'm wrong but I have to think undesignated gender isn't likely to be Trump voters.
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I brought up this point earlier this week or maybe last week. People said that demographic info is optional and many people don't fill it out. So I'm not sure that category is as meaningful as you think (and I thought, which is why I was inquiring).
 
superrific said:
I brought up this point earlier this week or maybe last week. People said that demographic info is optional and many people don't fill it out. So I'm not sure that category is as meaningful as you think (and I thought, which is why I was inquiring).
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Typically I stay away from trying to parse these statistics as they all blur together and sometimes seem contradictory, so I'm definitely not dying on that hill.
 
nycfan said:
Here is the gender gap in 2008, last time a Dem won NC for POTUS:

IMG_3408.jpeg
But then undesignated gender was less than 1%; now it is over 8% of registered voters and over 6% of folks who have already voted.
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I wouldn't compare 2024 (point in time) Absentee/Early with 2008 General Election. Those two cohorts are just way too divergent to get anything meaningful for a comparison, I think.
 
nycfan said:
Here is the gender gap in 2008, last time a Dem won NC for POTUS:

IMG_3408.jpeg
But then undesignated gender was less than 1%; now it is over 8% of registered voters and over 6% of folks who have already voted.
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1. That's the gender gap we're seeing now. Actually, so far the gender gap has been about 3%, compared to this 2.5%.
2. I'm not sure what you're saying here. You've pointed out that we won an election with a strong gender gap. You were also saying it doesn't give you fuzzies. I would have expected you to link to 2012, showing a strong gender gap in a losing election.
3. Pre-Dobbs, gender gaps were a different animal altogether.
4. The main reason that Obama won in 2008 was black turnout, which exceeded white turnout by 3 points. If we had that level of turnout in this election, it would be over. This cuts in favor of your point but not in the way you were articulating it. Maybe I missed something here.
 
Enigma94 said:
Typically I stay away from trying to parse these statistics as they all blur together and sometimes seem contradictory, so I'm definitely not dying on that hill.
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I know. And it's not necessarily "parsing statistics" -- or really parsing statistics at all -- to observe that "undesignated" gender might be liberal-leaning because of trans or feminist men. You just looked at something and saw some meaning there. I'm just saying that the meaning might not be what it appears at first.
 
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