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I’ve seen very similar numbers in several recent polls, but it remains a crap shoot.By the way, that poll is, I think, quite dated at this point. I've seen that graphic many times.
This is the difference between Rs and Ds. Rs would have been happy for Helene to ruin the Dems' party. Dems, by contrast, were reaching out to help those largely conservative voters vote.“As of noon Tuesday, nearly 3.2 million voters had cast ballots in the 2024 general election in North Carolina, a turnout of 40.7 percent of registered voters, according to preliminary State Board of Elections data.
North Carolina has about 7.8 million registered voters.
… Through the end of the day Monday, more than 2.9 million voters had cast ballots in person during the first 12 days of the early voting period. That’s an increase of 11.9 percent over 2020, when more than 2.6 million voters had cast ballots after 12 days of in-person voting. Factoring in increases in registered voters between 2020 and 2024, in-person early voting is up 2.1 percent over 2020.
… Additionally, turnout in the 25 Western North Carolina counties affected by Hurricane Helene continues to outpace statewide turnout. …”
North Carolina Tops 3 Million Ballots Cast
As of noon Tuesday, nearly 3.2 million voters had cast ballots in the 2024 general election in North Carolina.www.ncsbe.gov
Enthusiasm doesn't vote. The vote counts the same whether you sprint with excitement to the polling booth, or trudge with reservations. I've never seen good data linking enthusiasm to turnout, though it's also true I haven't looked.This new Gallup data measuring enthusiasm is fantastic news and aligns well with all the other voter enthusiasm indicators that we've been talking about (grassroots volunteers, small donor donations, campaign field offices, etc.) My biggest complaint with polling is you need to be very precise and accurate to be meaningful in our polarized FPTP voting system combined with the Electoral College. This works well in non-competitive states where 2-5% polling miss doesn’t really matter. But the presidential election is decided by a handful of competitive states. The difference in a few points can swing the election dramatically from blue to red. I just don't think that polling can deliver an accurate prediction on these tighter races. Voter enthusiasm is going to make a major difference in the battleground states, and it's great to see that the Democrats have a sizable advantage on that front.
How do you know that white/Republican vote is going to be pro-Trump? I mean, it's obviously going to be pro-Trump on average, but on the margins? I'm not worried about the party turnout. Dems will turn out on election day if they aren't turning out now.
Maybe the people who happily voted for a guy openly promising to kick their middle class ass at the kitchen table and in the wallet aren't garbage. Maybe they're just unimaginable morons?
Maybe the people who happily voted for a guy openly promising to kick their middle class ass at the kitchen table and in the wallet aren't garbage. Maybe they're just unimaginable morons?