2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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nycfan said:
Here is the gender gap in 2008, last time a Dem won NC for POTUS:

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But then undesignated gender was less than 1%; now it is over 8% of registered voters and over 6% of folks who have already voted.
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1. That's the gender gap we're seeing now. Actually, so far the gender gap has been about 3%, compared to this 2.5%.
2. I'm not sure what you're saying here. You've pointed out that we won an election with a strong gender gap. You were also saying it doesn't give you fuzzies. I would have expected you to link to 2012, showing a strong gender gap in a losing election.
3. Pre-Dobbs, gender gaps were a different animal altogether.
4. The main reason that Obama won in 2008 was black turnout, which exceeded white turnout by 3 points. If we had that level of turnout in this election, it would be over. This cuts in favor of your point but not in the way you were articulating it. Maybe I missed something here.
 
Enigma94 said:
Typically I stay away from trying to parse these statistics as they all blur together and sometimes seem contradictory, so I'm definitely not dying on that hill.
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I know. And it's not necessarily "parsing statistics" -- or really parsing statistics at all -- to observe that "undesignated" gender might be liberal-leaning because of trans or feminist men. You just looked at something and saw some meaning there. I'm just saying that the meaning might not be what it appears at first.
 
Enigma94 said:
Maybe I'm wrong but I have to think undesignated gender isn't likely to be Trump voters.
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I looked at my voter registration today and realized I'm undesignated. I don't know if I missed it or just in a general NOYFB attitude ,something not completely uncommon.
 
superrific said:
1. That's the gender gap we're seeing now. Actually, so far the gender gap has been about 3%, compared to this 2.5%.
2. I'm not sure what you're saying here. You've pointed out that we won an election with a strong gender gap. You were also saying it doesn't give you fuzzies. I would have expected you to link to 2012, showing a strong gender gap in a losing election.
3. Pre-Dobbs, gender gaps were a different animal altogether.
4. The main reason that Obama won in 2008 was black turnout, which exceeded white turnout by 3 points. If we had that level of turnout in this election, it would be over. This cuts in favor of your point but not in the way you were articulating it. Maybe I missed something here.
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My primary point is we don’t really know how large the gender gap is in NC early voting because we have no insight into the number of undesignated gender voters who are men or women who didn’t check that box. So if the undesignated who have voted are not 50/50 men and women, but say 75% men, the apparent gap would be a lot closer than it appears just comparing the designated men and women (and assuming undesignated are evenly split or liberal hold-outs of gender labels) who have voted. Or not.

So in 2008, when 0.9% were gender undesignated, 55% of voters identified as female. It is under 52% now.

We will have to wait and see but I don’t think you can discern the true gender gap in voting by just ignoring nearly 7% of undesignated voters, especially when other demo info show disproportionate GOP turnout so far.
 
nycfan said:
It popped right out in a few minutes of vigorous twisting. Now waiting to see how bad it gets once numbing agent wears off, but surgeon thinks I should be OK with OTC ibuprofen…
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This is important. The dentist probably gave you the tooth. Place the tooth under your pillow before you go to sleep. Your chances of the tooth fairy leaving you a treat will increase dramatically if: (a) you tell your husband of your plans. (b) your husband actually sees you put the tooth under your pillow, and (c) you don't get all nosy if your husband decides he wants some "me time" this evening and takes a short drive/walk.
 
nycfan said:
My primary point is we don’t really know how large the gender gap is in NC early voting because we have no insight into the number of undesignated gender voters who are men or women who didn’t check that box. So if the undesignated who have voted are not 50/50 men and women, but say 75% men, the apparent gap would be a lot closer than it appears just comparing the designated men and women (and assuming undesignated are evenly split or liberal hold-outs of gender labels) who have voted. Or not.

So in 2008, when 0.9% were gender undesignated, 55% of voters identified as female. It is under 52% now.

We will have to wait and see but I don’t think you can discern the true gender gap in voting by just ignoring nearly 7% of undesignated voters, especially when other demo info show disproportionate GOP turnout so far.
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If undesignated are 75% men, that means they would gain about 2 points. Meaning there would still be a gender gap. I get it -- you said not as large, but 75% is also an implausible assumption, I think.

And I, at least, have not been ignoring that other demo info about GOP turnout. As you said, hiding ballots from abusive husbands might be pretty difficult in some places. To me, it's a lot more plausible that Republican women who want to vote for Kamala and are scared of their husbands are voting solo than the undesignated gender voters are disproportionately male.
 
Enigma94 said:
If Arab Americans cause Trump to be elected I hope his first action is to re-implement the Muslim ban and tell Bibi to annex all of Gaza. That's what they will deserve for being so stupid.
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I understand the sentiment...

When I was arguing with my younger daughter's girl friends back in 2016 who thought Clinton and Trump were no different and said they might vote for Stein or just not vote at all, I told them to think about the Supreme Court and the possibility that their reproductive rights would be lost if Trump won.

They gave me eyerolls. My visceral (but silent reaction) was "you are gonna get what you deserve". I'm not proud of my reaction, but I understand the sentiment that if Trump wins, Muslims and Palestinian supporters who did not vote for Harris will rue the day for being so naive.
 
finesse said:
I looked at my voter registration today and realized I'm undesignated. I don't know if I missed it or just in a general NOYFB attitude ,something not completely uncommon.
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Did you vote for Trump? You're not disproving the contention LOL. From what I take from your posts, you've done a lot of drugs in your life -- which might be correlated with missing it. Or not. But I'm guessing that most people who have consumed similar amounts of mood altering substances are voting for Kamala.
 
superrific said:
Did you vote for Trump? You're not disproving the contention LOL. From what I take from your posts, you've done a lot of drugs in your life -- which might be correlated with missing it. Or not. But I'm guessing that most people who have consumed similar amounts of mood altering substances are voting for Kamala.
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No, I didn't vote for Trump and why do you speak in the past tense?
 
finesse said:
I looked at my voter registration today and realized I'm undesignated. I don't know if I missed it or just in a general NOYFB attitude ,something not completely uncommon.
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Yea A million years ago you decided to go Undesignated for some reason....Long as you vote it doesn't matter!! As a career State employee I know a lot of my colleagues did this--cause when the Office of the Gov changes parties you never know.........
 
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