You can pull data on who votes in which party’s primaries; people voting in off-year (‘22, ‘18, ‘14) Democratic primaries are likely Democrats. People who only vote in Republican Presidential primaries are likely Trumplicans.
2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden
- Thread starter nycfan
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Glad to see your post . I know every time you sneeze you forget more than I ever knew about this stuff. I hear you
Macksbrownies
Exceptional Member
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North Carolina's historically Black colleges are mobilizing for Nov. 5, tapping an activist history
North Carolina's 10 historically Black colleges are going all out to get their nearly 40,000 students to vote.
apnews.com
The saviors of NC will arrive on Nov 5th.
lightbluenc
Esteemed Member
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NC Turnout Rates (by party registration) from previous Elections:
as it currently stands
after 10/31 (still have two days of EV to go)
R 55.8
D 51.3 (-4.5)
U 43.0 (-12.8)
2022
R 58.6
D 51.3 (-6.5)
U 44.8 (-13.8)
2020
R 81.6
D 75.1 (-6.5)
U 69.8 (-12)
2018
R 56
D 52 (-4)
U 45 (-11)
2016
R 75
D 68 (-7)
U 63 (-12)
2014
R 51
D 46 (-5)
U 36 (-15)
2012
R 73
D 70 (-3)
U 60 (-13)
2010
R 50
D 44 (-6)
U 33 (-17)
2008
R 71
D 71
U 61 (-10)
editing to add: I believe if Dems can maintain under a 6% difference in turnout with R's, then we have a shot. I don't know what to think of unaffiliated haha, hoping turnout differences are more like 2018, 2012 or 2008 in a best case scenario of course.
as it currently stands
after 10/31 (still have two days of EV to go)
R 55.8
D 51.3 (-4.5)
U 43.0 (-12.8)
2022
R 58.6
D 51.3 (-6.5)
U 44.8 (-13.8)
2020
R 81.6
D 75.1 (-6.5)
U 69.8 (-12)
2018
R 56
D 52 (-4)
U 45 (-11)
2016
R 75
D 68 (-7)
U 63 (-12)
2014
R 51
D 46 (-5)
U 36 (-15)
2012
R 73
D 70 (-3)
U 60 (-13)
2010
R 50
D 44 (-6)
U 33 (-17)
2008
R 71
D 71
U 61 (-10)
editing to add: I believe if Dems can maintain under a 6% difference in turnout with R's, then we have a shot. I don't know what to think of unaffiliated haha, hoping turnout differences are more like 2018, 2012 or 2008 in a best case scenario of course.
Macksbrownies
Exceptional Member
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Look at unaffiliated as “Diet Dem”. Republicans are simply outnumbered. Just a matter of turnout.
rodoheel
Iconic Member
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I'm not sure that's right in NC. I would bet that the indies break no more than 55/45 for Dems.
This seems important, and reinforces my belief that this election will flip traditional norms on their heads. Older, affluent white voters (with more to lose) may lean Harris, and younger males (with less to lose) may lean Trump.
Half the nation has already voted, it's getting late in the game.
rodoheel
Iconic Member
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Shocker: the international betting markets that Elon and others have been harping on are likely being heavily manipulated (this was already discussed/reported, but this is a newer story):
fortune.com
(Also, note that Polymarket has trended from a high of 67% or so in favor of Trump back down to 62%, pretty much immediately after Elon started making his favorite teen boy joke by hoping it would get to "69.420%"
Exclusive: Election betting site Polymarket is rife with fake ‘wash’ trading, researchers say
Blockchain evidence points to users carrying out market manipulation to inflate trading volumes on the popular political betting platform.
(Also, note that Polymarket has trended from a high of 67% or so in favor of Trump back down to 62%, pretty much immediately after Elon started making his favorite teen boy joke by hoping it would get to "69.420%"
superrific
Legend of ZZL
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Don't give them any ideas on who to nominate in 2028.
Republicans, it's time for your reckoning!
CFordUNC
Legend of ZZL
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“You merely adopted the fascism. I was born in it, molded by it.”
superrific
Legend of ZZL
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40K ain't gonna be saviors. I understand your sentiment, but I fear we're going to need a BIG turnout on Tuesday.
North Carolina's historically Black colleges are mobilizing for Nov. 5, tapping an activist history
North Carolina's 10 historically Black colleges are going all out to get their nearly 40,000 students to vote.
The saviors of NC will arrive on Nov 5th.
I’d guess 98+% of the people who’ve already voted knew how they were voting 100 days ago.
It’s still possible to convince a few voters.
My wife and I just got back from adding two straight D tickets. I’m registered UA and she’s Dem.
lawtig02
Inconceivable Member
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I’m not saying anything that happens will change the outcome. I think that’s already baked. I just won’t be surprised to see some fireworks this weekend, even by Trump standards, as he starts to realize it’s all collapsing around him.