2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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HeelInTheOzarks said:


Pretty interesting and could lessen the red mirage if a huge chunk of the GOP early votes are just people who always voted on Election Day.
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So is the thinking that Pennsylvania Democrats are trying to reverse the "Red mirage" from 2020, where Trump had the lead from ED vote tallies coming in and declared victory (while we had to wait on mail-ins)? So now more Dems are voting Election Day so he can't do this as easily?
 
nycfan said:
politicalwire.com

Trump Campaign Pauses Its Premature Celebration

Tara Palmeri: "We’re less than a week from Election Day, and the mood inside the Trump campaign has undergone yet another transformation. Last week, I reported on the preemptive but undeniably palpable sense of euphoria washing over Mar-a-Lago as data rolled in depicting early-voting surges in Nev
politicalwire.com politicalwire.com

“We’re less than a week from Election Day, and the mood inside the Trump campaign has undergone yet another transformation. Last week, I reported on the preemptive but undeniably palpable sense of euphoria washing over Mar-a-Lago as data rolled in depicting early-voting surges in Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina.”

“But now, as the early results from Pennsylvania reveal an influx of first-time female voters who will likely break for Harris, a newfound anxiety is taking hold. While Trump continues to claim he has a massive lead, setting the stage to contest any unfavorable result, some in the Mar-a-Lago-sphere are starting to believe that his surge last week was two weeks premature.”
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There was no surge.
 
lightbluenc said:
So is the thinking that Pennsylvania Democrats are trying to reverse the "Red mirage" from 2020, where Trump had the lead from ED vote tallies coming in and declared victory (while we had to wait on mail-ins)? So now more Dems are voting Election Day so he can't do this as easily?
Click to expand...
I was thinking the inverse. GOP early vote is up but half of it is former E-day voters where the heavy majority of Dem early vote are people who are repeat early voters. So maybe the overall E-day turnout is lower because more GOP banked votes early. This also lessens the lead Harris would need going into Tuesday, one would think.
 
dukeman92 said:
Yeah man… this race has been pretty stable for a while. She’s gonna crush him.
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Yep. Even with yesterday's outlier polls by Atlas Intel (a Brazilian pollster that doesn't disclose its methodology and is strongly suspected to be associated with Orban's regime), Kamala's small lead in the national polls remains almost unchanged, as does Trump remaining below the 47% threshold. Again, as said many, many time, national polling does not matter now. But the trend lines do show the incredible stability of the race ever since Kalama became the nominee.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

National : President: general election : 2024 Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com
 
HeelInTheOzarks said:
I saw her on a YouTube clip with Steve Schmidt and she seemed super bullish on Trump. Had me wondering who her sources are and why does she think this way. Now in a few days it’s flipped when literally nothing changed.
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It's them believing that more GOP early votes = more GOP total votes. Not that Bubba and Tammy-Lou are actually just voting 2 weeks earlier than they always have before.
 
lawtig02 said:
Yep. Even with yesterday's outlier polls by Atlas Intel (a Brazilian pollster that doesn't disclose its methodology and is strongly suspected to be associated with Orban's regime), Kamala's small lead in the national polls remains almost unchanged, as does Trump remaining below the 47% threshold. Again, as said many, many time, national polling does not matter now. But the trend lines do show the incredible stability of the race ever since Kalama became the nominee.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

National : President: general election : 2024 Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com
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Why is 538 even including polls like Atlas?
 
I think it's funny how the Dems always have more early voters than the Pubs. Like the Pubs think their vote counts more if they do it on election day.
 
heelinhell said:
www.rawstory.com

New poll suggests Dems’ election results could mirror Obama’s 2008 victory

Democrats have another reason to be optimistic about Tuesday's presidential election after the release of a new Gallup poll.Gallup, which is considered one of the more reputable polling organizations operating today, doesn't do election horse-race polls of candidates. However, it does measure...
www.rawstory.com www.rawstory.com
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There's been a lot of commentary recently suggesting 2012 is the best comparison, but I've had a sneaking suspicion it's actually 2008. That year was dominated by the financial crisis, of course, but there are a number of other indicators that seem to apply.
 
So in 2016, the last week had lots of rumblings about cracks and warnings for Clinton. I mean yeah the Comey stuff, but also the lack of focus, danger with white voters etc.

Those same rumblings are happening about Trump this time around.
 
aGDevil2k said:
So in 2016, the last week had lots of rumblings about cracks and warnings for Clinton. I mean yeah the Comey stuff, but also the lack of focus, danger with white voters etc.

Those same rumblings are happening about Trump this time around.
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Probably also helps that I have Comey locked in my basement. He's well fed, though, and I haven't blocked Fox News on YTTV yet.
 
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