2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[dukeman92]

Trump Campaign Pauses Its Premature Celebration

Tara Palmeri: "We’re less than a week from Election Day, and the mood inside the Trump campaign has undergone yet another transformation. Last week, I reported on the preemptive but undeniably palpable sense of euphoria

politicalwire.com

“We’re less than a week from Election Day, and the mood inside the Trump campaign has undergone yet another transformation. Last week, I reported on the preemptive but undeniably palpable sense of euphoria washing over Mar-a-Lago as data rolled in depicting early-voting surges in Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina.”

“But now, as the early results from Pennsylvania reveal an influx of first-time female voters who will likely break for Harris, a newfound anxiety is taking hold. While Trump continues to claim he has a massive lead, setting the stage to contest any unfavorable result, some in the Mar-a-Lago-sphere are starting to believe that his surge last week was two weeks premature.”

There was no surge.

 

[HeelInTheOzarks]

So is the thinking that Pennsylvania Democrats are trying to reverse the "Red mirage" from 2020, where Trump had the lead from ED vote tallies coming in and declared victory (while we had to wait on mail-ins)? So now more Dems are voting Election Day so he can't do this as easily?

I was thinking the inverse. GOP early vote is up but half of it is former E-day voters where the heavy majority of Dem early vote are people who are repeat early voters. So maybe the overall E-day turnout is lower because more GOP banked votes early. This also lessens the lead Harris would need going into Tuesday, one would think.

 

[HeelInTheOzarks]

There was no surge.

I saw her on a YouTube clip with Steve Schmidt and she seemed super bullish on Trump. Had me wondering who her sources are and why does she think this way. Now in a few days it’s flipped when literally nothing changed.

 

[lawtig02]

Shocked the Latino percentage is so low in the state

The Latino community in NC is far less likely to be citizens than in states like TX and FL. Lots of reasons for that, and most are here legally. They’re just not as likely to be able to vote.

 

[ZenMode]

Or vote 3rd Party, like spineless idiots.

3rd party would be part of the "overall" decrease I predicted.

 

[dukeman92]

I saw her on a YouTube clip with Steve Schmidt and she seemed super bullish on Trump. Had me wondering who her sources are and why does she think this way. Now in a few days it’s flipped when literally nothing changed.

Yeah man… this race has been pretty stable for a while. She’s gonna crush him.

 

[lawtig02]

Yeah man… this race has been pretty stable for a while. She’s gonna crush him.

Yep. Even with yesterday's outlier polls by Atlas Intel (a Brazilian pollster that doesn't disclose its methodology and is strongly suspected to be associated with Orban's regime), Kamala's small lead in the national polls remains almost unchanged, as does Trump remaining below the 47% threshold. Again, as said many, many time, national polling does not matter now. But the trend lines do show the incredible stability of the race ever since Kalama became the nominee.

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[aGDevil2k]

I saw her on a YouTube clip with Steve Schmidt and she seemed super bullish on Trump. Had me wondering who her sources are and why does she think this way. Now in a few days it’s flipped when literally nothing changed.

It's them believing that more GOP early votes = more GOP total votes. Not that Bubba and Tammy-Lou are actually just voting 2 weeks earlier than they always have before.

 

[altmin]

Yep. Even with yesterday's outlier polls by Atlas Intel (a Brazilian pollster that doesn't disclose its methodology and is strongly suspected to be associated with Orban's regime), Kamala's small lead in the national polls remains almost unchanged, as does Trump remaining below the 47% threshold. Again, as said many, many time, national polling does not matter now. But the trend lines do show the incredible stability of the race ever since Kalama became the nominee.

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Why is 538 even including polls like Atlas?

 

[Healing]

This would be pretty pretty good. Think 2020 black voter share was 18.7%

Need 20%.

 

[mpaer]

Need 20%.

Won't get it

 

[aGDevil2k]

Won't get it

Their data models 20.4%

 

[CFordUNC]

 

[Carolina Fever]

I think it's funny how the Dems always have more early voters than the Pubs. Like the Pubs think their vote counts more if they do it on election day.

 

[heelinhell]

New poll suggests Dems’ election results could mirror Obama’s 2008 victory

Democrats have another reason to be optimistic about Tuesday's presidential election after the release of a new Gallup poll.Gallup, which is considered one of the more reputable polling organizations operating today, doesn't do election horse-race polls of candidates. However, it does measure...

www.rawstory.com

 

[lawtig02]

New poll suggests Dems’ election results could mirror Obama’s 2008 victory

Democrats have another reason to be optimistic about Tuesday's presidential election after the release of a new Gallup poll.Gallup, which is considered one of the more reputable polling organizations operating today, doesn't do election horse-race polls of candidates. However, it does measure...

www.rawstory.com

There's been a lot of commentary recently suggesting 2012 is the best comparison, but I've had a sneaking suspicion it's actually 2008. That year was dominated by the financial crisis, of course, but there are a number of other indicators that seem to apply.

 

[aGDevil2k]

So in 2016, the last week had lots of rumblings about cracks and warnings for Clinton. I mean yeah the Comey stuff, but also the lack of focus, danger with white voters etc.

Those same rumblings are happening about Trump this time around.

 

[lawtig02]

So in 2016, the last week had lots of rumblings about cracks and warnings for Clinton. I mean yeah the Comey stuff, but also the lack of focus, danger with white voters etc.

Those same rumblings are happening about Trump this time around.

Probably also helps that I have Comey locked in my basement. He's well fed, though, and I haven't blocked Fox News on YTTV yet.

 

[Zoo_View]

nycfan’s post on the previous page from the WP showed early votes to be heavily for Harris but also noted Clinton had similar leads in 2016. There are more early votes this election and the electorate and stakes are different. That’s not to say it can’t happen again, but like seeing Harris up big early. Just have to build on that. Also looks like she’s hitting every swing state down the stretch.

Saw David Plouffe on Chris Hayes last night and all he would say is that it’s a tight race in every swing state but he’d rather be in the position of the Harris campaign right now. Said it more than once. His expression was that of a stone faced poker player, but it looked a little like he was holding back ha.

I can’t imagine David Plouffe saying anything else at this point…….he could be looking at internal polls showing Harris down 2-3 points in each swing state; and, he’d say, “I’d rather be Harris than Trump.”

That said, it’s a damn good thing that Plouffe and the other Obama professionals are at high levels in the Harris Campaign and not the Robbie Mook clown car show from 2016.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Probably also helps that I have Comey locked in my basement. He's well fed, though, and I haven't blocked Fox News on YTTV yet.

I blocked that shit on YTTV when I first installed it.
CNN is in danger of being next.