2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[HeelInTheOzarks]

This all depends on the total number of early vs. in person. The bigger number matters massively.

For sure. That’s the part nobody can know.

 

[uncjhodges]

For sure. That’s the part nobody can know.

Well we know that Michigan is already past 50% of 2020 turnout. And they have a few more days of early voting. Even if you’re conservative and say 500K more people vote than 2020, it would still favor Harris.
Need to do some napkin math on the Pa and Wisconsin numbers but i believe they also favor Harris

 

[CFordUNC]

Anyone remember when gtyellowjacket went to the mat hilariously defending political betting markets as useful predictors of political races?

 

[superrific]

I don't get the 538 model still having Trump a slight favorite. Based on everything I am seeing, Harris a not a slight favorite, but I think probable to win. I think the NYT needled may start with a toss up but shift toward Harris relatively quickly after results start coming in. I live in a heavily Republican area, and there just isn't the same enthusiasm. I think Harris will ultimately just have a better ground game and just get more people to the polls.

The 538 model is, at this point, just going by polls. The polls make it look as though it's a 50/50 race. The model doesn't consider other factors like turnout, enthusiasm, early voting, etc. It's just a polls-only model right now.

 

[superrific]

Extraordinarily tiny sample size, so obviously take it with a massive grain of salt. Interesting nonetheless.

Holy shit, that poll was in the field before MSG.

I'm guessing the temporal breakdown is something like:

Polled before MSG: Kamala 60-40
After MSG: Kamala 95-3

 

[WaynetheDrain]

Holy shit, that poll was in the field before MSG.

I'm guessing the temporal breakdown is something like:

Polled before MSG: Kamala 60-40
After MSG: Kamala 95-3

Unfortunately, the Cubans will ensure that Florida stays red. Trump inexplicably is at his all time high favorability with Cubans (68%).

 

[Zoo_View]

Unfortunately, the Cubans will ensure that Florida stays red. Trump inexplicably is at his all time high favorability with Cubans (68%).

Talking crap about Puerto Ricans, Haitians, and Latinos is always popular among Cubanos…..especially the Hispanic Cubanos.

 

[quakerdevil]

Well we know that Michigan is already past 50% of 2020 turnout. And they have a few more days of early voting. Even if you’re conservative and say 500K more people vote than 2020, it would still favor Harris.
Need to do some napkin math on the Pa and Wisconsin numbers but i believe they also favor Harris

I'd love to see it when you're done

 

[SnoopRob]

Anyone remember when gtyellowjacket went to the mat hilariously defending political betting markets as useful predictors of political races?

 

[RockyMtnHoo]

Talking crap about Puerto Ricans, Haitians, and Latinos is always popular among Cubanos…..especially the Hispanic Cubanos.

Which to me is hilarious because MAGA’s (and very likely Trump himself) don’t see them as one bit different from the other groups.

 

[uncjhodges]

I'd love to see it when you're done

with some rounding.
Michigan, roughly 2.8 mil votes already. 5.5 mil total votes. based on these poll numbers
Harris- 2.8 mil -50.9%
Trump- 2.6 mil- 47.3%

Wisconsin. roughly 1.5 mil so far, 3.5 mil total votes.
Harris - 1.755 mil- 50.1%
Trump- 1.65 mil- 47.2%

PS- almost 2 million total votes early, 7 million total
Harris- 3.46 mil- 49.4%
Trump- 3.4 mil- 48.6%

 

[Zoo_View]

Which to me is hilarious because MAGA’s (and very likely Trump himself) don’t see them as one bit different from the other groups.

My great-uncle (b. 1910 or so) was a highly successful salesman for General Mills or General Foods. He was also the most racist MFer I’ve ever met.

He did A LOT of business in South Florida. A LOT. He even started a couple of successful, long-running bakeries in Little Havana.

He HATED the Cubans, the Hispanic ones. Hated them. HATED! Called them wetbacks….lazy thieves….

Get George going on black folks and a new level of vitriol came exploding out.

Black Cubans (as tiny of a number as that was in George’s day)……new level of hatred.

 

[Zoo_View]

with some rounding.
Michigan, roughly 2.8 mil votes already. 5.5 mil total votes. based on these poll numbers
Harris- 2.8 mil -50.9%
Trump- 2.6 mil- 47.3%

Wisconsin. roughly 1.5 mil so far, 3.5 mil total votes.
Harris - 1.755 mil- 50.1%
Trump- 1.65 mil- 47.2%

PS- almost 2 million total votes early, 7 million total
Harris- 3.46 mil- 49.4%
Trump- 3.4 mil- 48.6%

So, your “back-of-the-napkin” math says this is the final result?

• 60K delta for Harris in PA
• 110+K in Wisky
• 200K in Michigan

 

[nycfan]

with some rounding.
Michigan, roughly 2.8 mil votes already. 5.5 mil total votes. based on these poll numbers
Harris- 2.8 mil -50.9%
Trump- 2.6 mil- 47.3%

Wisconsin. roughly 1.5 mil so far, 3.5 mil total votes.
Harris - 1.755 mil- 50.1%
Trump- 1.65 mil- 47.2%

PS- almost 2 million total votes early, 7 million total
Harris- 3.46 mil- 49.4%
Trump- 3.4 mil- 48.6%

You must use those expensive hotel dinner napkins

 

[lightbluenc]

There's a lot of votes to come in PA, hoping she can really GotV in Philly and the cities.

 

[uncjhodges]

So, your “back-of-the-napkin” math says this is the final result?

• 60K delta for Harris in PA
• 110+K in Wisky
• 200K in Michigan

That was just basing that off the quoted Marist poll numbers, the actual early vote numbers and a guesstimate of total votes. I expect it to be closer in both michigan and Wisconsin

 

[nycfan]

Uncertainty Reigns in Nevada With Rise of Nonpartisan Voters​

With early voting coming to a close, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris must now ensure their respective bases show up on Election Day, while chasing down those whose choice is less clear.

Uncertainty Reigns in Nevada With Rise of Nonpartisan Voters

With early voting coming to a close, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris must now ensure their respective bases show up on Election Day, while chasing down those whose choice is less clear.

www.nytimes.com

“…
But what’s making this presidential election different is the sheer number of voters who don’t officially identify with either party. Thanks to the state’s relatively new automatic voter registration law, nonpartisan voters became Nevada’s largest voting bloc in 2022, outpacing both Democratic and Republican registrations.

Figuring out who those voters are, and how or if they will cast a ballot, has been a crucial challenge for the campaigns scrambling to find and sway those last few persuadable people. Changes in voting patterns wrought by the pandemic four years ago are also throwing prognosticators for a loop. …”

 

[Zoo_View]

That was just basing that off the quoted Marist poll numbers, the actual early vote numbers and a guesstimate of total votes. I expect it to be closer in both michigan and Wisconsin

No offense……..you expect it to be closer (and, this is just you spit-balling using one poll?)…..SMGDH until it hurts.

Ignore the polls.

Do whatever you can to increase Democratic turn-out between now and polls closing on Tuesday.

 

[uncjhodges]

No offense……..you expect it to be closer (and, this is just you spit-balling using one poll?)…..SMGDH until it hurts.

Ignore the polls.

Do whatever you can to increase Democratic turn-out between now and polls closing on Tuesday.

if you want to ignore the polls, then i would probably get off the thread that’s titled “Political Polls and turnout data”

 

[1moretimeagain]