2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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lightbluenc said:
NC Turnout Rates (by party registration) from previous Elections:

as it currently stands
after 10/31 (still have two days of EV to go)
R 55.8
D 51.3 (-4.5)
U 43.0 (-12.8)

2022
R 58.6
D 51.3 (-6.5)
U 44.8 (-13.8)

2020
R 81.6
D 75.1 (-6.5)
U 69.8 (-12)

2018
R 56
D 52 (-4)
U 45 (-11)

2016
R 75
D 68 (-7)
U 63 (-12)

2014
R 51
D 46 (-5)
U 36 (-15)

2012
R 73
D 70 (-3)
U 60 (-13)

2010
R 50
D 44 (-6)
U 33 (-17)

2008
R 71
D 71
U 61 (-10)

editing to add: I believe if Dems can maintain under a 6% difference in turnout with R's, then we have a shot. I don't know what to think of unaffiliated haha, hoping turnout differences are more like 2018, 2012 or 2008 in a best case scenario of course.
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My wife and I just got back from adding two straight D tickets. I’m registered UA and she’s Dem.
 
gregh1 said:
Half the nation has already voted, it's getting late in the game.
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I’m not saying anything that happens will change the outcome. I think that’s already baked. I just won’t be surprised to see some fireworks this weekend, even by Trump standards, as he starts to realize it’s all collapsing around him.
 
CFordUNC said:
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I'm not sure this is a logical argument. It's assuming that state partisan leans are the same as they have been in the last eight years, which seems (at least from poll data) not to be the case now.

But I think the real reason is simple: nobody is actually excited about voting for Trump right now. Not even his base. They will, and they are turning out to vote for him because they're inexplicably shit-scared of Kamala even though the last 12 years of Dem administrations have been good for most people. But anyway, if your vote requires you to plug your nose, and you don't live in a swing state, then why bother?

It is entirely possible that the Dems enthusiasm advantage will show up mostly where it doesn't matter. Hopefully not. Probably not. But it's possible. When I lived in NYC I sometimes didn't vote. I was too busy and it didn't mean anything and I was not excited about John Kerry. If I had been living in Ohio, my attitude would have been different.
 
rodoheel said:
Shocker: the international betting markets that Elon and others have been harping on are likely being heavily manipulated (this was already discussed/reported, but this is a newer story):

fortune.com

Exclusive: Election betting site Polymarket is rife with fake ‘wash’ trading, researchers say

Blockchain evidence points to users carrying out market manipulation to inflate trading volumes on the popular political betting platform.
fortune.com fortune.com

(Also, note that Polymarket has trended from a high of 67% or so in favor of Trump back down to 62%, pretty much immediately after Elon started making his favorite teen boy joke by hoping it would get to "69.420%"
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I also think about the people who are online gambling degenerates, stock market bros, Gen Z zynternet losers etc and the Venn diagram of them with Trumpers is basically a circle.

If this market needs juice on both sides, they have to make Trump the favorite, right? If Harris was 55% they’d get literally all the money on Trump.
 
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