2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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nycfan said:
“…
The election, of course, is decided in the swing states. But there, the polls suggest Harris is also banking a sizable advantage heading into Election Day.
Polls from Marist, CNN, Fox News and USA Today-Suffolk University show that her leads among those who say they’ve already cast ballots look like this:
  • Arizona: 9-12 points
  • Georgia: 7-10 points
  • Michigan: 26-39 points
  • North Carolina: 2-6 points
  • Pennsylvania: 17-35 points
  • Wisconsin: 22-60 points
The only state where a major, high-quality poll has shown Harris actually trailing among those who have already cast ballots is CNN’s poll of Nevada, which shows Trump leading by six points.

… All of these margins pale next to Biden’s leads in late 2020 polls of the same states. But again, they’re much closer to 2016. Hillary Clinton had only a slight lead among early voters in Arizona and Nevada, for instance. A late poll in Michigan showed her margin there at 27 points. And a late Siena poll of North Carolina showed her ahead by nine points among early voters.

… But the sum total is that it looks as if Harris will at least go into Election Day with a substantial lead banked among those who have already cast ballots. It’s good for Republicans that this margin doesn’t appear close to as large as it was in 2020, but it’s still a substantial lead that they’ll have to make up.

They did so in 2016, when many wagered that the early vote was among the many strong signs for Clinton.

Maybe the lesson is that we should just wait and see.”

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But the state polls were wildly off that election cycle. I'm not worried about a repeat of that.
 
North Carolina update:

“…
Compared to data from 2020 at the same point — five days before Election Day — 2024 is experiencing a slight uptick in in-person early voting but a marked drop in absentee ballots counted. Both rates have gone up since 2016.

At this point in 2020, approximately 3.9 million voters had cast ballots, with 3.03 million casting ballots at in-person early voting locations and 864,929 voters casting ballots absentee.

At this point in 2016, approximately 2.35 million voters had voted early, with about 2.22 million in person at early voting locations and 132,328 absentee ballots.

So far this year, Republican voters have cast more votes than Democrats or unaffiliated voters. Republicans make up 29.89 percent of the state’s registered voters; 52.63 percent of them have already cast votes, making up 33.97 percent of total votes cast.

Democrats make up 31.28 percent of the state’s voters; 48.38 percent of them have voted, accounting for 32.68 percent of the votes cast.

Unaffiliated voters are the state’s largest bloc of registered voters, at 37.8 percent. Those voters lag in votes cast, at 40.09 percent, making up 32.73 percent of total votes cast.“

thehill.com

Nearly half of NC’s registered voters have cast a ballot

Nearly half of all registered voters in North Carolina have cast a ballot in the 2024 general election already, according to a Thursday update from the state. Of the roughly 7.82 million registered…
thehill.com
 
A prediction on the topic of turnout....

I believe there will be around 5%-10% fewer votes for R and D this election and less votes overall when compared to 2020.
 
Apparently everyone has a different number on what the democratic firewall is in PA, but looks like the early vote lead is about 380K without counting independents.

177K unaffiliated ballots are in, so if that is 60/40 in Harris’ favor then the lead would already be 400k+
 
HeelInTheOzarks said:
Apparently everyone has a different number on what the democratic firewall is in PA, but looks like the early vote lead is about 380K without counting independents.

177K unaffiliated ballots are in, so if that is 60/40 in Harris’ favor then the lead would already be 400k+
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There's no democratic firewall in PA. That was, as far as I can tell, made up by a college student.
 
Obviously unscientific, but in 2016 and 2020 the Trump and Clinton/Biden signs were very evenly matched in my neighborhood outside of Winston. This year there’s way more Harris signs than Trump. Running a close third to the Trump signs are 2 that say “Presidents are temporary, Wu-Tang is forever.”
 
nrsair said:
Obviously unscientific, but in 2016 and 2020 the Trump and Clinton/Biden signs were very evenly matched in my neighborhood outside of Winston. This year there’s way more Harris signs than Trump. Running a close third to the Trump signs are 2 that say “Presidents are temporary, Wu-Tang is forever.”
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There have been a ton of Harris signs all over WS the last couple of weeks. The intersection of Peace Haven and Country club had Harris signs every few feet until a few days ago. My next door neighbor has that same Wu-Tang sign.
 
nrsair said:
Obviously unscientific, but in 2016 and 2020 the Trump and Clinton/Biden signs were very evenly matched in my neighborhood outside of Winston. This year there’s way more Harris signs than Trump. Running a close third to the Trump signs are 2 that say “Presidents are temporary, Wu-Tang is forever.”
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There are a few of those Wu-Tang signs in my neighborhood. Also some “Grateful Dead is forever” signs. I think I’ve seen another like that but can’t remember who it was.
 
uncjhodges said:
I don’t know about party ID, but i do know we’ve already surpassed 2012 and 2016 early voting totals.
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nycfan’s post on the previous page from the WP showed early votes to be heavily for Harris but also noted Clinton had similar leads in 2016. There are more early votes this election and the electorate and stakes are different. That’s not to say it can’t happen again, but like seeing Harris up big early. Just have to build on that. Also looks like she’s hitting every swing state down the stretch.

Saw David Plouffe on Chris Hayes last night and all he would say is that it’s a tight race in every swing state but he’d rather be in the position of the Harris campaign right now. Said it more than once. His expression was that of a stone faced poker player, but it looked a little like he was holding back ha.
 
ZenMode said:
A prediction on the topic of turnout....

I believe there will be around 5%-10% fewer votes for R and D this election and less votes overall when compared to 2020.
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Of course you do your whole game is negativity cloaked in "concern" I'm thinking you might be a version of a new Putin AI bot. But even a bot and AI would at least change their programming when they realize it's not working?
 
DiehardHeelFan said:
nycfan’s post on the previous page from the WP showed early votes to be heavily for Harris but also noted Clinton had similar leads in 2016. There are more early votes this election and the electorate and stakes are different. That’s not to say it can’t happen again, but like seeing Harris up big early. Just have to build on that. Also looks like she’s hitting every swing state down the stretch.

Saw David Plouffe on Chris Hayes last night and all he would say is that it’s a tight race in every swing state but he’d rather be in the position of the Harris campaign right now. Said it more than once. His expression was that of a stone faced poker player, but it looked a little like he was holding back ha.
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Yes, even if the percentages are the same as Hillary, she’s likely in better shape given the raw numbers
 
nrsair said:
Obviously unscientific, but in 2016 and 2020 the Trump and Clinton/Biden signs were very evenly matched in my neighborhood outside of Winston. This year there’s way more Harris signs than Trump. Running a close third to the Trump signs are 2 that say “Presidents are temporary, Wu-Tang is forever.”
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i want that Wu-Tang sign.
 
nycfan said:
North Carolina update:

“…
Compared to data from 2020 at the same point — five days before Election Day — 2024 is experiencing a slight uptick in in-person early voting but a marked drop in absentee ballots counted. Both rates have gone up since 2016.

At this point in 2020, approximately 3.9 million voters had cast ballots, with 3.03 million casting ballots at in-person early voting locations and 864,929 voters casting ballots absentee.

At this point in 2016, approximately 2.35 million voters had voted early, with about 2.22 million in person at early voting locations and 132,328 absentee ballots.

So far this year, Republican voters have cast more votes than Democrats or unaffiliated voters. Republicans make up 29.89 percent of the state’s registered voters; 52.63 percent of them have already cast votes, making up 33.97 percent of total votes cast.

Democrats make up 31.28 percent of the state’s voters; 48.38 percent of them have voted, accounting for 32.68 percent of the votes cast.

Unaffiliated voters are the state’s largest bloc of registered voters, at 37.8 percent. Those voters lag in votes cast, at 40.09 percent, making up 32.73 percent of total votes cast.“

thehill.com

Nearly half of NC’s registered voters have cast a ballot

Nearly half of all registered voters in North Carolina have cast a ballot in the 2024 general election already, according to a Thursday update from the state. Of the roughly 7.82 million registered…
thehill.com
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I literally dislike Unaffiliated greatly . Binary Choice-pick a side babies
 
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