2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[WaynetheDrain]

Now THIS is my kind of hopium, where a 319-219 EC victory is deemed "certain" and a 417-85 ED victory is considered "possible"

That’s the kind of Hopium that would make Christopher Bouzy blush.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Now THIS is my kind of hopium, where a 319-219 EC victory is deemed "certain" and a 417-85 ED victory is considered "possible"

We found Bouzy a wifey

Edit - nevermind Houle is a man.

 

[uncjhodges]

Echelon has Trump +6 (!) in Pennsylvania. Supposedly they are pretty highly rated, but that margin is stretching the limits of credibility.

Are these people “highly rated” based on results from last time or methodology and seriousness. If it’s based on 2020 results, well it just means the right wing polls are rated higher bc the miss was to the right and they were putting their thumbs on the scales. Rating polls based on “results” when they aren’t a predicting tool and have large margins of error is so dumb

 

[CFordUNC]

 

[Focker]

 

[Icky Mettle]

Hmm. Not sure what to think of those polls. On the surface, they look a bit concerning.

 

[lawtig02]

Hmm. Not sure what to think of those polls. On the surface, they look a bit concerning.

No, that's generally good news. You'd always prefer to have votes banked before Election Day rather than counting on people to show up then. And Kamala is WAY ahead in terms of votes banked.

 

[superrific]

Hmm. Not sure what to think of those polls. On the surface, they look a bit concerning.

If he is only +10 with yet to vote PA, that's a bad sign for him. He's likely at least 30 points behind in early voting.

 

[superrific]

My son at U of M is reporting a lot of excitement on campus. And he's in the engineering school! My wife's GOP cousin at MSU (which is more conservative) is reporting apathy.

 

[HeelInTheOzarks]

Hmm. Not sure what to think of those polls. On the surface, they look a bit concerning.

This is the companion poll:

 

[CFordUNC]

 

[HeelInTheOzarks]

The fact Nate writes this without apparently any self awareness of how it sounds…

 

[korgguy1971]

His fat ass would never have been able to climb out of Pena Duro.

 

[CFordUNC]

Extraordinarily tiny sample size, so obviously take it with a massive grain of salt. Interesting nonetheless.

 

[superrific]

The fact Nate writes this without apparently any self awareness of how it sounds…

Don't shoot the messenger. Nate is not a pollster. He's not saying HE is tossing out blue polls.

 

[superrific]

Extraordinarily tiny sample size, so obviously take it with a massive grain of salt. Interesting nonetheless.

Not extraordinarily tiny. Small, yes, but margin of error scales as a square root. So a 150 LV panel has 2x the margin of error as a standard 600 LV poll. It's wide, but that result is shocking. If it's 75-18, that's still terrible for Trump. Not necessarily for FL but for PA and other states.

 

[CFordUNC]

Not extraordinarily tiny. Small, yes, but margin of error scales as a square root. So a 150 LV panel has 2x the margin of error as a standard 600 LV poll. It's wide, but that result is shocking. If it's 75-18, that's still terrible for Trump. Not necessarily for FL but for PA and other states.

Ohh good info! Thanks super. That’s interesting.

 

[quakerdevil]

This is the companion poll:

This all depends on the total number of early vs. in person. The bigger number matters massively.

 

[EhringhausSouth]

I don't get the 538 model still having Trump a slight favorite. Based on everything I am seeing, Harris a not a slight favorite, but I think probable to win. I think the NYT needled may start with a toss up but shift toward Harris relatively quickly after results start coming in. I live in a heavily Republican area, and there just isn't the same enthusiasm. I think Harris will ultimately just have a better ground game and just get more people to the polls.

 

[Zoo_View]

A year or two ago, I signed up for a Trump rally (I wanted a buddy to go with me; couldn’t get anyone).

I still get numerous texts from Trump’s campaign daily. Opportunities to donate, buy $47 MAGA hats, shoes, Bibles, watches, etc. Texts encouraging me to vote early - they’ve been encouraging early voting since before early voting started.

My guess is Trump’s Election Day advantage might not be as large in 2024 as it was in 2020.