2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[CFordUNC]

 

[CFordUNC]

Republicans, it's time for your reckoning!

 

[HeelInTheOzarks]

It's them believing that more GOP early votes = more GOP total votes. Not that Bubba and Tammy-Lou are actually just voting 2 weeks earlier than they always have before.

The polls suck because there is no way to truly model who's going to vote. They kinda had a good hold on it for a while but the last 3 cycles have busted it. The fundamentals point all in one direction but the pollsters and legacy media are so afraid of missing like 2016 again that they are ignoring all that. They undercounted Trump before because he was the candidate with the energy behind his campaign. Now he's the opposite and they're still giving him the weight that they think they missed back then. Bizarre.

 

[lawtig02]

I do think there's a good chance we get three or four Trump stories over the weekend that dwarf the Cheney story. Buckle up. Trump in panic mode is like a honey badger on bath salts.

ETA -- And let's not forget, Trump knows he's fighting not to be president of the United States, but to stay out of jail.

 

[CFordUNC]

Hey Pubs!!


....for you!

 

[Zoo_View]

It means the Party's have no clue whats going on and therefore can not target get out the vote etc Its wrecking a lot of party operations at some level

You can pull data on who votes in which party’s primaries; people voting in off-year (‘22, ‘18, ‘14) Democratic primaries are likely Democrats. People who only vote in Republican Presidential primaries are likely Trumplicans.

 

[mpaer]

You can pull data on who votes in which party’s primaries; people voting in off-year (‘22, ‘18, ‘14) Democratic primaries are likely Democrats. People who only vote in Republican Presidential primaries are likely Trumplicans.

Glad to see your post . I know every time you sneeze you forget more than I ever knew about this stuff. I hear you

 

[CFordUNC]

 

[Macksbrownies]

North Carolina's historically Black colleges are mobilizing for Nov. 5, tapping an activist history

North Carolina's 10 historically Black colleges are going all out to get their nearly 40,000 students to vote.

apnews.com

The saviors of NC will arrive on Nov 5th.

 

[lightbluenc]

NC Turnout Rates (by party registration) from previous Elections:

as it currently stands
after 10/31 (still have two days of EV to go)
R 55.8
D 51.3 (-4.5)
U 43.0 (-12.8)

2022
R 58.6
D 51.3 (-6.5)
U 44.8 (-13.8)

2020
R 81.6
D 75.1 (-6.5)
U 69.8 (-12)

2018
R 56
D 52 (-4)
U 45 (-11)

2016
R 75
D 68 (-7)
U 63 (-12)

2014
R 51
D 46 (-5)
U 36 (-15)

2012
R 73
D 70 (-3)
U 60 (-13)

2010
R 50
D 44 (-6)
U 33 (-17)

2008
R 71
D 71
U 61 (-10)

editing to add: I believe if Dems can maintain under a 6% difference in turnout with R's, then we have a shot. I don't know what to think of unaffiliated haha, hoping turnout differences are more like 2018, 2012 or 2008 in a best case scenario of course.

 

[Macksbrownies]

NC Turnout Rates (by party registration) from previous Elections:

as it currently stands
after 10/31 (still have two days of EV to go)
R 55.8
D 51.3 (-4.5)
U 43.0 (-12.8)

2022
R 58.6
D 51.3 (-6.5)
U 44.8 (-13.8)

2020
R 81.6
D 75.1 (-6.5)
U 69.8 (-12)

2018
R 56
D 52 (-4)
U 45 (-11)

2016
R 75
D 68 (-7)
U 63 (-12)

2014
R 51
D 46 (-5)
U 36 (-15)

2012
R 73
D 70 (-3)
U 60 (-13)

2010
R 50
D 44 (-6)
U 33 (-17)

2008
R 71
D 71
U 61 (-10)

editing to add: I believe if Dems can maintain under a 6% difference in turnout with R's, then we have a shot. I don't know what to think of unaffiliated haha

Look at unaffiliated as “Diet Dem”. Republicans are simply outnumbered. Just a matter of turnout.

 

[rodoheel]

Look at unaffiliated as “Diet Dem”. Republicans are simply outnumbered. Just a matter of turnout.

I'm not sure that's right in NC. I would bet that the indies break no more than 55/45 for Dems.

 

[CFordUNC]

 

[Willy]

This seems important, and reinforces my belief that this election will flip traditional norms on their heads. Older, affluent white voters (with more to lose) may lean Harris, and younger males (with less to lose) may lean Trump.

 

[gregh1]

I do think there's a good chance we get three or four Trump stories over the weekend that dwarf the Cheney story. Buckle up. Trump in panic mode is like a honey badger on bath salts.

ETA -- And let's not forget, Trump knows he's fighting not to be president of the United States, but to stay out of jail.

Half the nation has already voted, it's getting late in the game.

 

[rodoheel]

Shocker: the international betting markets that Elon and others have been harping on are likely being heavily manipulated (this was already discussed/reported, but this is a newer story):

Exclusive: Election betting site Polymarket is rife with fake ‘wash’ trading, researchers say

Blockchain evidence points to users carrying out market manipulation to inflate trading volumes on the popular political betting platform.

fortune.com

(Also, note that Polymarket has trended from a high of 67% or so in favor of Trump back down to 62%, pretty much immediately after Elon started making his favorite teen boy joke by hoping it would get to "69.420%"

 

[nycfan]

 

[superrific]

Republicans, it's time for your reckoning!

Don't give them any ideas on who to nominate in 2028.

 

[CFordUNC]

Don't give them any ideas on who to nominate in 2028.

“You merely adopted the fascism. I was born in it, molded by it.”

 

[superrific]

North Carolina's historically Black colleges are mobilizing for Nov. 5, tapping an activist history

North Carolina's 10 historically Black colleges are going all out to get their nearly 40,000 students to vote.

apnews.com

The saviors of NC will arrive on Nov 5th.

40K ain't gonna be saviors. I understand your sentiment, but I fear we're going to need a BIG turnout on Tuesday.