2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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DiehardHeelFan said:
nycfan’s post on the previous page from the WP showed early votes to be heavily for Harris but also noted Clinton had similar leads in 2016. There are more early votes this election and the electorate and stakes are different. That’s not to say it can’t happen again, but like seeing Harris up big early. Just have to build on that. Also looks like she’s hitting every swing state down the stretch.

Saw David Plouffe on Chris Hayes last night and all he would say is that it’s a tight race in every swing state but he’d rather be in the position of the Harris campaign right now. Said it more than once. His expression was that of a stone faced poker player, but it looked a little like he was holding back ha.
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I can’t imagine David Plouffe saying anything else at this point…….he could be looking at internal polls showing Harris down 2-3 points in each swing state; and, he’d say, “I’d rather be Harris than Trump.”

That said, it’s a damn good thing that Plouffe and the other Obama professionals are at high levels in the Harris Campaign and not the Robbie Mook clown car show from 2016.
 
aGDevil2k said:
It's them believing that more GOP early votes = more GOP total votes. Not that Bubba and Tammy-Lou are actually just voting 2 weeks earlier than they always have before.
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The polls suck because there is no way to truly model who's going to vote. They kinda had a good hold on it for a while but the last 3 cycles have busted it. The fundamentals point all in one direction but the pollsters and legacy media are so afraid of missing like 2016 again that they are ignoring all that. They undercounted Trump before because he was the candidate with the energy behind his campaign. Now he's the opposite and they're still giving him the weight that they think they missed back then. Bizarre.
 
CFordUNC said:
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I do think there's a good chance we get three or four Trump stories over the weekend that dwarf the Cheney story. Buckle up. Trump in panic mode is like a honey badger on bath salts.

ETA -- And let's not forget, Trump knows he's fighting not to be president of the United States, but to stay out of jail.
 
mpaer said:
It means the Party's have no clue whats going on and therefore can not target get out the vote etc Its wrecking a lot of party operations at some level
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You can pull data on who votes in which party’s primaries; people voting in off-year (‘22, ‘18, ‘14) Democratic primaries are likely Democrats. People who only vote in Republican Presidential primaries are likely Trumplicans.
 
Zoo_View said:
You can pull data on who votes in which party’s primaries; people voting in off-year (‘22, ‘18, ‘14) Democratic primaries are likely Democrats. People who only vote in Republican Presidential primaries are likely Trumplicans.
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Glad to see your post . I know every time you sneeze you forget more than I ever knew about this stuff. I hear you
 
NC Turnout Rates (by party registration) from previous Elections:

as it currently stands
after 10/31 (still have two days of EV to go)
R 55.8
D 51.3 (-4.5)
U 43.0 (-12.8)

2022
R 58.6
D 51.3 (-6.5)
U 44.8 (-13.8)

2020
R 81.6
D 75.1 (-6.5)
U 69.8 (-12)

2018
R 56
D 52 (-4)
U 45 (-11)

2016
R 75
D 68 (-7)
U 63 (-12)

2014
R 51
D 46 (-5)
U 36 (-15)

2012
R 73
D 70 (-3)
U 60 (-13)

2010
R 50
D 44 (-6)
U 33 (-17)

2008
R 71
D 71
U 61 (-10)

editing to add: I believe if Dems can maintain under a 6% difference in turnout with R's, then we have a shot. I don't know what to think of unaffiliated haha, hoping turnout differences are more like 2018, 2012 or 2008 in a best case scenario of course.
 
lightbluenc said:
NC Turnout Rates (by party registration) from previous Elections:

as it currently stands
after 10/31 (still have two days of EV to go)
R 55.8
D 51.3 (-4.5)
U 43.0 (-12.8)

2022
R 58.6
D 51.3 (-6.5)
U 44.8 (-13.8)

2020
R 81.6
D 75.1 (-6.5)
U 69.8 (-12)

2018
R 56
D 52 (-4)
U 45 (-11)

2016
R 75
D 68 (-7)
U 63 (-12)

2014
R 51
D 46 (-5)
U 36 (-15)

2012
R 73
D 70 (-3)
U 60 (-13)

2010
R 50
D 44 (-6)
U 33 (-17)

2008
R 71
D 71
U 61 (-10)

editing to add: I believe if Dems can maintain under a 6% difference in turnout with R's, then we have a shot. I don't know what to think of unaffiliated haha
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Look at unaffiliated as “Diet Dem”. Republicans are simply outnumbered. Just a matter of turnout.
 
lawtig02 said:
I do think there's a good chance we get three or four Trump stories over the weekend that dwarf the Cheney story. Buckle up. Trump in panic mode is like a honey badger on bath salts.

ETA -- And let's not forget, Trump knows he's fighting not to be president of the United States, but to stay out of jail.
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Half the nation has already voted, it's getting late in the game.
 
Shocker: the international betting markets that Elon and others have been harping on are likely being heavily manipulated (this was already discussed/reported, but this is a newer story):

fortune.com

Exclusive: Election betting site Polymarket is rife with fake ‘wash’ trading, researchers say

Blockchain evidence points to users carrying out market manipulation to inflate trading volumes on the popular political betting platform.
fortune.com fortune.com

(Also, note that Polymarket has trended from a high of 67% or so in favor of Trump back down to 62%, pretty much immediately after Elon started making his favorite teen boy joke by hoping it would get to "69.420%"
 
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