2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[HeelInTheOzarks]

Another thing to consider about some of these Midwest states: Trump has been talking about how there are Venezuelan gangs occupying all these towns in the Midwest, how they are given a green light to shoot police, blah blah blah. The people who best know that to be a ridiculous lie with no basis in reality are the people who live in WI, IA, etc.

The caravans were the way to do it. Literally nobody in the US lives where the caravans were. You can scare people with caravans. They might believe you. But when you say they are taking over WI and people in WI can see that's plainly bullshit, it sort of blunts the message.

You can say gangs are taking over Milwaukee because the small town people are like OMG Milwaukee is scary! And they don’t want to go there. But if you say every small town is being run by MS13, that’s too easily debunked.

 

[Focker]

You can say gangs are taking over Milwaukee because the small town people are like OMG Milwaukee is scary! And they don’t want to go there. But if you say every small town is being run by MS13, that’s too easily debunked.

 

[Geisterfahrer]

These boys didn’t have any trouble conquering Milwaukee.

 

[CFordUNC]

 

[Geisterfahrer]

Let me hit that pipe

 

[CFordUNC]

Let me hit that pipe

Yeah….that’s wayyyyyy too out there haha.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Late breaking voters are going to Harris... From internals, NYT and Selzer

That was the major warning sign in the final couple of days for Clinton. I remember it so clearly and I thought yeah but she's up so big. It mattered

 

[Zoo_View]

Let me hit that pipe

That pipe has some meth and crack in it.

 

[rodoheel]

lol come on. Why do people do this? (Not you cford, the tweeter.) SC as a toss-up state?

 

[UNCMSinLS]

South Carolina as a swing state? HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA (infinity) !!!!

 

[uncgriff]

Yeah….that’s wayyyyyy too out there haha.

Yeah….that’s wayyyyyy too out there haha.

I would run down the street drunk and naked if that happens. Means Raphael Cruz was sent home.

 

[HeelInTheOzarks]

 

[CFordUNC]

lol come on. Why do people do this? (Not you cford, the tweeter.) SC as a toss-up state?

Oh I know it, totally agree with you. I hesitated to even post it but figured it was worth sharing. Not even the purest form of hopium should let anyone think that is a remote possibility

 

[Wheels81]

 

[superrific]

lol come on. Why do people do this? (Not you cford, the tweeter.) SC as a toss-up state?

The qualifier was that if Trump collapses, that could happen. It's true. 538 runs 1000 simulations every time they update their model. They have consistently had 12-13 out of 1000 simulations with more than 400 EVs for KH. It's very unlikely, but it's not completely wrong in theory.

 

[nycfan]

The holy fuck?!

We’ll just call that one an outlier and maybe assume the pollster was out of fucks to give

 

[superrific]

Look I get it -- Nate is annoying. But there's nothing wrong with this. His model is saying that when Kamala wins she will win bigger than Trump, so on average she will get more EVs but the median result is slightly better for Trump.

It's like the difference between looking at a baseball team's record and their run differential. The latter is more meaningful and contains more information, but the former is what actually counts.

Run 1000 simulations. Kamala gets more total EVs, but gets the majority of EVs fewer times.

 

[CFordUNC]

 

[superrific]

We’ll just call that one an outlier and maybe assume the pollster was out of fucks to give

Same pollster who put KH up 21 earlier in October. Not sure out of fucks is the angle here. Outlier, maybe.

 

[CFordUNC]