2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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Wisconsin (and the Upper Peninsula of MI) seems to be the only swing state that faces significant inclement weather tomorrow.



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Just under 3.3 million votes were cast in Wisconsin in 2020, so there could be a lot of people who waited to vote on what looks like there will be a very rainy Election Day there.

“… Most polls of Wisconsin—whose 10 electoral votes could prove crucial—reflect a razor-thin race, with Harris leading by just 0.8 points in FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average.

Voter turnout in Wisconsin could be high in November as there are several competitive U.S. House races in the state on the ballot and Republicans are in a tight contest to maintain majority control of the state Assembly, Anthony Chergosky, an assistant professor of political science at University of Wisconsin-La Crosse toldWUWM public radio in Milwaukee.

Waning support for Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin in the Wisconsin Senate race is also seen as a warning sign for Democrats as Cook Political Report moved the state from lean Democrat to a toss-up last week after finding her lead over Republican Eric Hovde has shrunk from seven points to two since August, though a Marquette Law School poll, also released last week, still found her with a seven point advantage. …”

www.forbes.com

Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads In 5 New Surveys—As Others Show A Near-Tie

Biden flipped Wisconsin in 2020, but it's expected to be close this year.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
 
Cappy the Stool Man said:
I've thought 2008 to be the closest analogy since the Convention, with the only difference being that in '08 there weren't all the outlets trying to sell that it was close, at least not in the last month or so of the race.
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Amen to this. Been saying the same since Harris fundraising went through the roof in the first week.

But there’s no money to be made in polling or analysis that has Harris up comfortably. “Dead heats” are where the clicks and eyeballs (and ad revenue, engagement, etc.) are frenzied.
 
Cappy the Stool Man said:
I've thought 2008 to be the closest analogy since the Convention, with the only difference being that in '08 there weren't all the outlets trying to sell that it was close, at least not in the last month or so of the race.
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I dunno. The big difference in 2008 was that we were coming off of 8 straight years of a Republican administration that ended in a disastrous recession. In this election there's already a Dem president. Now, that should be a benefit because the economy is doing well and there is every reason to believe we're on the right track, but half the country is convinced things are going badly for mostly made-up reasons and can't be persuaded otherwise. So I just can't see 2008 as a model. 2012 would probably be a better comparison.
 
akillesheel said:
Jamelle Bouie, who I think is one of the smartest political minds alive, agrees with you: he shared that he's been feeling that this election very much has the feeling of a "reverse 2016."
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So he will win the popular vote and she will win the EC?
 
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