2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[Wheels81]

 

[superrific]

lol come on. Why do people do this? (Not you cford, the tweeter.) SC as a toss-up state?

The qualifier was that if Trump collapses, that could happen. It's true. 538 runs 1000 simulations every time they update their model. They have consistently had 12-13 out of 1000 simulations with more than 400 EVs for KH. It's very unlikely, but it's not completely wrong in theory.

 

[nycfan]

The holy fuck?!

We’ll just call that one an outlier and maybe assume the pollster was out of fucks to give

 

[superrific]

Look I get it -- Nate is annoying. But there's nothing wrong with this. His model is saying that when Kamala wins she will win bigger than Trump, so on average she will get more EVs but the median result is slightly better for Trump.

It's like the difference between looking at a baseball team's record and their run differential. The latter is more meaningful and contains more information, but the former is what actually counts.

Run 1000 simulations. Kamala gets more total EVs, but gets the majority of EVs fewer times.

 

[CFordUNC]

 

[superrific]

We’ll just call that one an outlier and maybe assume the pollster was out of fucks to give

Same pollster who put KH up 21 earlier in October. Not sure out of fucks is the angle here. Outlier, maybe.

 

[CFordUNC]

 

[HintonJamesHeel]

The NC constitutional amendment is going to sail through, correct?

 

[HintonJamesHeel]

Stupid

 

[ICFree]

lol come on. Why do people do this? (Not you cford, the tweeter.) SC as a toss-up state?

You know something? Not only are we going to New Hampshire, rodoheel, we’re going to South Carolina! And Oklahoma! And Arizona! And North Dakota! And New Mexico! We’re going to California! And Texas! And New York! And we’re going to South Dakota! And Oregon! And Washington and Michigan!

 

[nycfan]

The NC constitutional amendment is going to sail through, correct?

That is the expectation but haven’t seen a recent poll on that.

 

[WaynetheDrain]

Great model you got there, Nate. Lol.

 

[CFordUNC]

Stupid

Yes, we’ve all said that.

 

[Enigma94]

The NC constitutional amendment is going to sail through, correct?

Before the amendment it was simply against the law. Now it will be double secret against the law.

 

[CFordUNC]

I’m just grateful that the Republicans are saving us from all of the non-citizens who are already not voting in North Carolina because it’s literally illegal.

 

[UNCRx85]

 

[dsgb]

 

[nycfan]

 

[Duke Mu]

SCrOTUS - the wild card. Nate should retire in disgrace.

 

[nycfan]

Of some interest if this poll is accurate, it supports the notion that national poll margins may be closer than in recent years when Dems won in significant part because of movement towards Trump in deep blue states and increasing Trump margins in some red states that don’t impact the electoral college math.

Trump would be picking up about 5 points in NY State and Washington state and also about 3 points in Florida.