2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[gregh1]

who made such a massive wager, and why this AM?

 

[aGDevil2k]

Not a poll, and certainly not scientific, but out of curiosity I drove around my neighborhood to count political signs. I broke it down into 6 categories: (1) homes with Harris signs, (2) homes with Trump signs, (3) homes with no signs for presidential candidates but with signs for other down ballot Dem candidates, (4) homes with no signs for presidential candidates but signs for other down ballot Pub candidates, (5) homes with no signs for presidential candidates but signs for candidates from both major parties, and (6) homes with signs for third party candidates only.

As for demographics of this neighborhood, it is in Charlotte. It is in the southeastern section of Charlotte, but is also pretty centrally located. It is very white. Almost all of the homeowners have a college degree, and a fairly large percentage likely have graduate degrees. I believe there are two precincts that cover this neighborhood, and they both went blue in the two previous presidential elections in which Trump was a candidate, with one being much bluer than the other (all but two precincts in all of Charlotte went blue in 2020).

First of all, the vast majority of homes— hundreds of them— have no political signs.

No homes have any signs for third party candidates and no homes have signs for candidates from both parties.

31 homes have Harris signs.

7 homes have Trump signs.

38 homes have signs for democratic candidates, but no signs for presidential candidates.

Only 2 homes have signs for republican candidates, but no signs for presidential candidates.

There is one house where the only political sign is an anti-Trump sign, which doesn’t necessarily fit into any of the 6 categories I came up with.

So 69-7

Damn.

And yeah I figure all the non Harris but other Dem folks are Harris voters. Many Harris people, my whole family included, are a bit nervous of public signs because MAGAs are insane


8 years ago we thought they were deplorable but toothless

4 years ago we knew they were deplorable but deranged

Now we know they are insane and willing to fight


There IS a silent Harris voter

 

[aGDevil2k]

who made such a massive wager, and why this AM?

@dukeman92 ?

 

[Bigs23]

who made such a massive wager, and why this AM?

Probably based on the Yahoo poll. Betting markets are not the place to look for election forecasts.

 

[dukeman92]

@dukeman92 ?

ugh

 

[Kingpin]

I think they are shit because they have no idea how to model turnout and no one answers phones anymore

Exactly I’ve not answered a single poll I’ve received (numerous).

 

[UNCMSinLS]

Not a poll, and certainly not scientific, but out of curiosity I drove around my neighborhood to count political signs. I broke it down into 6 categories: (1) homes with Harris signs, (2) homes with Trump signs, (3) homes with no signs for presidential candidates but with signs for other down ballot Dem candidates, (4) homes with no signs for presidential candidates but signs for other down ballot Pub candidates, (5) homes with no signs for presidential candidates but signs for candidates from both major parties, and (6) homes with signs for third party candidates only.

As for demographics of this neighborhood, it is in Charlotte. It is in the southeastern section of Charlotte, but is also pretty centrally located. It is very white. Almost all of the homeowners have a college degree, and a fairly large percentage likely have graduate degrees. I believe there are two precincts that cover this neighborhood, and they both went blue in the two previous presidential elections in which Trump was a candidate, with one being much bluer than the other (all but two precincts in all of Charlotte went blue in 2020).

First of all, the vast majority of homes— hundreds of them— have no political signs.

No homes have any signs for third party candidates and no homes have signs for candidates from both parties.

31 homes have Harris signs.

7 homes have Trump signs.

38 homes have signs for democratic candidates, but no signs for presidential candidates.

Only 2 homes have signs for republican candidates, but no signs for presidential candidates.

There is one house where the only political sign is an anti-Trump sign, which doesn’t necessarily fit into any of the 6 categories I came up with.

I'm in ruby-red Trump country. I've seen VERY few Trump signs and no Harris signs. I've seen more school board signs than any other type.

 

[1moretimeagain]

In Charlotte, I see far more Dem signs than Republican. but overall there seem to be significantly fewer signs than for prior elections.

 

[Ddseddse]

Not a poll, and certainly not scientific, but out of curiosity I drove around my neighborhood to count political signs. I broke it down into 6 categories: (1) homes with Harris signs, (2) homes with Trump signs, (3) homes with no signs for presidential candidates but with signs for other down ballot Dem candidates, (4) homes with no signs for presidential candidates but signs for other down ballot Pub candidates, (5) homes with no signs for presidential candidates but signs for candidates from both major parties, and (6) homes with signs for third party candidates only.

As for demographics of this neighborhood, it is in Charlotte. It is in the southeastern section of Charlotte, but is also pretty centrally located. It is very white. Almost all of the homeowners have a college degree, and a fairly large percentage likely have graduate degrees. I believe there are two precincts that cover this neighborhood, and they both went blue in the two previous presidential elections in which Trump was a candidate, with one being much bluer than the other (all but two precincts in all of Charlotte went blue in 2020).

First of all, the vast majority of homes— hundreds of them— have no political signs.

No homes have any signs for third party candidates and no homes have signs for candidates from both parties.

31 homes have Harris signs.

7 homes have Trump signs.

38 homes have signs for democratic candidates, but no signs for presidential candidates.

Only 2 homes have signs for republican candidates, but no signs for presidential candidates.

There is one house where the only political sign is an anti-Trump sign, which doesn’t necessarily fit into any of the 6 categories I came up with.

Since we are doing anecdotes, I canvased on Carolina Beach Saturday (not exactly a liberal bastion). The list I was working was specifically pulled from low propensity Dem voters and and Unaffiliated who have had as least some history of voting Dem in the past.

First off, I was shocked at how many folks were home and actually answered the door (43% of the list to be specific), which if you've done much canvasing, you know is bizarrely good.

But most significantly, this was the breakdown from those contacts:

• Strong Dem: 16
• Lean Dem: 4
• Undecided: 1
• Lean Rep: 1

Those are crazy good numbers for a round of canvassing. I've never experienced that before. Based on the my cautious optimism meter inched forward a hair, but I'm committed to "hair on fire work like your behind 10 points" right through election day.

As far as house signs go, probably 60/40 Rep/Dem here on the beach (though median/roadways signed probably run closer to 75/25 Rep/Dem). But I can say authoritative there are many Strong Dem households on the beach that aren't wild about putting a Dem sign out front. I don't think it's precisely because they are "scared" (though there is some of that), but more because they are going to have to go on living next door to all their neighbors after the election. I think a lot of Trump voters are (via self selection) pretty impervious to those sorts of considerations.

 

[Icky Mettle]

In Charlotte, I see far more Dem signs than Republican. but overall there seem to be significantly fewer signs than for prior elections.

I feel the same way. I think things have just gotten so much more polarized and people don’t want to make things weird between them and their neighbors.

 

[Icky Mettle]

I'm in ruby-red Trump country. I've seen VERY few Trump signs and no Harris signs. I've seen more school board signs than any other type.

I was actually surprised to see as many Trump signs as I did.

 

[CFordUNC]

 

[UNCBAdookJD]

This is why Republicans shit all over going to college, student loan forgiveness, etc. Educated people can see right through Trumpism/MAGA/etc. The republicans need Idiocracy.

 

[Icky Mettle]

Not a poll, and certainly not scientific, but out of curiosity I drove around my neighborhood to count political signs. I broke it down into 6 categories: (1) homes with Harris signs, (2) homes with Trump signs, (3) homes with no signs for presidential candidates but with signs for other down ballot Dem candidates, (4) homes with no signs for presidential candidates but signs for other down ballot Pub candidates, (5) homes with no signs for presidential candidates but signs for candidates from both major parties, and (6) homes with signs for third party candidates only.

As for demographics of this neighborhood, it is in Charlotte. It is in the southeastern section of Charlotte, but is also pretty centrally located. It is very white. Almost all of the homeowners have a college degree, and a fairly large percentage likely have graduate degrees. I believe there are two precincts that cover this neighborhood, and they both went blue in the two previous presidential elections in which Trump was a candidate, with one being much bluer than the other (all but two precincts in all of Charlotte went blue in 2020).

First of all, the vast majority of homes— hundreds of them— have no political signs.

No homes have any signs for third party candidates and no homes have signs for candidates from both parties.

31 homes have Harris signs.

7 homes have Trump signs.

38 homes have signs for democratic candidates, but no signs for presidential candidates.

Only 2 homes have signs for republican candidates, but no signs for presidential candidates.

There is one house where the only political sign is an anti-Trump sign, which doesn’t necessarily fit into any of the 6 categories I came up with.

I’ll also add that none of the homes with Trump signs had signs for any down ballot candidates. Most of the homes with Harris signs also had signs for down ballot candidates.

 

[dukeman92]

I'm in ruby-red Trump country. I've seen VERY few Trump signs and no Harris signs. I've seen more school board signs than any other type.

Every house in my county has a trump sign or flag.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Every house in my county has a trump sign or flag.

Well that's not true

And in that stretch, the visible number, at least three weeks ago, was significantly less than 4 years ago

 

[BillOfRights]

who made such a massive wager, and why this AM?

Some MAGA on Xitter showed an AI image of trump using a sharpie to have the hurricane wipe out California?

 

[BillOfRights]

Since we are doing anecdotes, I canvased on Carolina Beach Saturday (not exactly a liberal bastion). The list I was working was specifically pulled from low propensity Dem voters and and Unaffiliated who have had as least some history of voting Dem in the past.

First off, I was shocked at how many folks were home and actually answered the door (43% of the list to be specific), which if you've done much canvasing, you know is bizarrely good.

But most significantly, this was the breakdown from those contacts:

• Strong Dem: 16
• Lean Dem: 4
• Undecided: 1
• Lean Rep: 1

Those are crazy good numbers for a round of canvassing. I've never experienced that before. Based on the my cautious optimism meter inched forward a hair, but I'm committed to "hair on fire work like your behind 10 points" right through election day.

As far as house signs go, probably 60/40 Rep/Dem here on the beach (though median/roadways signed probably run closer to 75/25 Rep/Dem). But I can say authoritative there are many Strong Dem households on the beach that aren't wild about putting a Dem sign out front. I don't think it's precisely because they are "scared" (though there is some of that), but more because they are going to have to go on living next door to all their neighbors after the election. I think a lot of Trump voters are (via self selection) pretty impervious to those sorts of considerations.

Thank you. Canvassing can make a difference.

 

[Healing]

Every house in my county has a trump sign or flag.

Do you have friends?

I don’t think I’d have friends.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Do you have friends?

I don’t think I’d have friends.

He's down east... So yeah it's red. Not all red, and not as disturbing as it was 4 years ago in a visible way

But they have muscadine wine lol