2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[Centerpiece]

Ditto on the rent.

 

[rodoheel]

You say something to the effect of "The economy is strong, but we are all too aware that the benefits of this strong economy are not being shared equally amongst all who have contributed to it. Too frequently corporations and billionaires take the windfall and refuse to pass along even the small amounts that they had promised would "trickle down" to the workers who make their success possible. Our administration will make sure that you and your family feel the benefit of the improved economy by making the rich pay their fair share in taxes, to provide for things like health care and child care and housing credits for you and other working-class families."

Great speech, but I really doubt it's going to sway anyone. These are people who, by definition, aren't thinking about this logically. The immediate response will be "you're already in charge."

 

[nycfan]

AARP:

"...

• Former President Donald Trump (R) leads Vice President Kamala Harris (D) by one percentage point in the head-to-head presidential matchup in Michigan. Trump maintains this one-point lead among voters 50 and older; though he leads by eleven points among 50- to 64-year-olds, Harris leads among voters 65 and older, also by eleven points. Harris has picked up three points since the first AARP Michigan voter poll, which was published in August.

In Michigan, Presidential and U.S. Senate Races Extremely Close

<p>Michigan voters 50-plus are the most committed age group for voting in the 2024 election and appear to be on track to decide in the upcoming elections.</p>

www.aarp.org

They have the MI Senate race D+3

 

[nycfan]

Of note for the AARP poll:

"AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) to conduct a survey of voters in Michigan. The firms interviewed 1,382 likely voters, which includes a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters, an oversample of 470 likely voters age 50 and older, and an additional oversample of 312 Black likely voters age 50 and older. The survey was conducted between October 2 and 8, 2024 via live interviewer on landline (25%) and cellphone (35%), as well as SMS-to-web (40%). The sample was randomly drawn from the Michigan voter list."

 

[nycfan]

TIPP Tracking Poll [Red Poll most famous for predicting Trump would win +2 in 2016 -- they were wrong about the national margin but have gotten a ton of credibility on the right especially for getting the electoral outcome correct even if the margin was way off]

TIPP Tracking Poll Day 1: Harris Holds Narrow 3-Point Lead Over Trump

Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in the national popular vote, with 49% to 46%, according to the latest TIPP tracking poll of 1,212 likely voters conducted online from Friday, October 11 to Sunday, October 13. This is the first release of

tippinsights.com

 

[Geisterfahrer]

AARP:

"...

• Former President Donald Trump (R) leads Vice President Kamala Harris (D) by one percentage point in the head-to-head presidential matchup in Michigan. Trump maintains this one-point lead among voters 50 and older; though he leads by eleven points among 50- to 64-year-olds, Harris leads among voters 65 and older, also by eleven points. Harris has picked up three points since the first AARP Michigan voter poll, which was published in August.

In Michigan, Presidential and U.S. Senate Races Extremely Close

<p>Michigan voters 50-plus are the most committed age group for voting in the 2024 election and appear to be on track to decide in the upcoming elections.</p>

www.aarp.org

They have the MI Senate race D+3

AARP only polls 50+?

 

[SnoopRob]

Agree. Some people really have been hurt by the relatively high levels of inflation from 2021-23. But there are a ton of people who are actually ahead because of wage growth, etc., but THINK they’ve been hurt because their media sources have been telling them incessantly that they’ve been hurt. That latter group is probably unreachable at this point.

I think the other problem with trying to emphasize wage growth alongside an admission of inflation is that folks think they earn the wage increases, but they see inflation as a problem caused by others (namely, the government).

It's a hard line for Harris to walk because while the macroeconomy is doing about as well as can be expected, a lot of folks' household budgets aren't doing so well. Add in that, for some reason, there are a lot of folks who think Trump left office in February 2020 and bears no responsibility for COVID, it makes a tough sell for Harris to reach voters on this issue.

 

[aGDevil2k]

You say something to the effect of "The economy is strong, but we are all too aware that the benefits of this strong economy are not being shared equally amongst all who have contributed to it. Too frequently corporations and billionaires take the windfall and refuse to pass along even the small amounts that they had promised would "trickle down" to the workers who make their success possible. Our administration will make sure that you and your family feel the benefit of the improved economy by making the rich pay their fair share in taxes, to provide for things like health care and child care and housing credits for you and other working-class families."

"Inflation was brutal. It was caused by lots of issues during the pandemic both here in the US and abroad. But we have been working hard to bring it down and ease the pain and now inflation is back below wage growth. Let's not go back to the policies from the prior administration that brough us high inflation and keep the policies we have been working on that brought inflation down every year"

 

[hedge]

The other piece of the economy that doesn’t get discussed much here is rent. I assume most of y’all own your homes, but I’m a renter. It is out of control.

 

[aGDevil2k]

AARP:

"...

• Former President Donald Trump (R) leads Vice President Kamala Harris (D) by one percentage point in the head-to-head presidential matchup in Michigan. Trump maintains this one-point lead among voters 50 and older; though he leads by eleven points among 50- to 64-year-olds, Harris leads among voters 65 and older, also by eleven points. Harris has picked up three points since the first AARP Michigan voter poll, which was published in August.

In Michigan, Presidential and U.S. Senate Races Extremely Close

<p>Michigan voters 50-plus are the most committed age group for voting in the 2024 election and appear to be on track to decide in the upcoming elections.</p>

www.aarp.org

They have the MI Senate race D+3

Gen X....making me ashamed every day.

 

[Icky Mettle]

AARP:

"...

• Former President Donald Trump (R) leads Vice President Kamala Harris (D) by one percentage point in the head-to-head presidential matchup in Michigan. Trump maintains this one-point lead among voters 50 and older; though he leads by eleven points among 50- to 64-year-olds, Harris leads among voters 65 and older, also by eleven points. Harris has picked up three points since the first AARP Michigan voter poll, which was published in August.

In Michigan, Presidential and U.S. Senate Races Extremely Close

<p>Michigan voters 50-plus are the most committed age group for voting in the 2024 election and appear to be on track to decide in the upcoming elections.</p>

www.aarp.org

They have the MI Senate race D+3

I could be wrong, but I don’t think Trump leading by just 1 point over Kamala in the 50 and over crowd is good news for Trump. It’s very sad and disappointing in general, but I would think he needs at least a +5 advantage among that group to offset the under 50 crowd.

 

[aGDevil2k]

I could be wrong, but I don’t think Trump leading by just 1 point over Kamala in the 50 and over crowd is good news for Trump. It’s very sad and disappointing in general, but I would think he needs at least a +5 as advantage among that group to offset the under 50 crowd.

it is not good news for him at all

 

[lawtig02]

it is not good news for him at all

Trump is strong with low-propensity voters. Kamala is strong with high-propensity voters. If we turn out, we win. It's as simple as that.

 

[WBroylesH]

I could see her with a smaller popular vote win just from some softening in New York etc

Until recently the Electoral College benefited the GOP (i.e., they lose popular vote but win EC)

I think the great realignment we're in the midst of may see that change somewhat. Dems start to win swing states like NC and GA occasionally, but carry much smaller margins in traditionally blue states thus affecting their popular vote margin. The second phenomenon caused by a combination blue New Yorkers moving to NC (thus contributing to phenomenon one) but traditionally Dem constituencies becoming more conservative (like Muslims in Michigan and Hispanics in California.

 

[Calheel]

Trump is strong with low-propensity voters. Kamala is strong with high-propensity voters. If we turn out, we win. It's as simple as that.

In that case, you should be rooting for low turnout. High propensity voters will vote no matter what. Low propensity voters only vote in high turnout elections. So the last thing you should want is high turnout.

 

[aGDevil2k]

You want high turnout in cities and suburbs.... Like what's happening in Atlanta today

 

[lawtig02]

In that case, you should be rooting for low turnout. High propensity voters will vote no matter what. Low propensity voters only vote in high turnout elections. So the last thing you should want is high turnout.

I don't want high turnout from low propensity voters. But Kamala supporters obviously need to turn out.

 

[Calheel]

I don't want high turnout from low propensity voters. But Kamala supporters obviously need to turn out.

They will. But it would be far better if we reverted to 2016 overall turnout numbers.

Obviously, every side wants their voters to turn out and not the other voters. But that is not how it usually works.

So if our side does worse with low propensity voters, we should be rooting for very low turnout numbers.

 

[aGDevil2k]

But yeah we want higher black and Latino turnout. Higher women.

And record low turnout for high school diploma white men

 

[Zoo_View]

You say something to the effect of "The economy is strong, but we are all too aware that the benefits of this strong economy are not being shared equally amongst all who have contributed to it. Too frequently corporations and billionaires take the windfall and refuse to pass along even the small amounts that they had promised would "trickle down" to the workers who make their success possible. Our administration will make sure that you and your family feel the benefit of the improved economy by making the rich pay their fair share in taxes, to provide for things like health care and child care and housing credits for you and other working-class families."

No one believes anyone will make the billionaires pay their share.

But, Trump claims he’ll make immigrants “pay” - “pay” for what? Who knows?

So long as “they” “pay.” That’s important. “They” must “pay.”