2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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I really thought you were older than this. And I didn't picture you as a blonde either. I can only imagine what your clients must think when they're picturing some gruff old dude doing their transactional work and this young woman enters the room instead.
 
"... [Harry Enten on CNN]:

"History tells us that it is more likely than not that all of the swing state polling errors would move in one direction," the polling expert said. "So in 2012, 92% of the states moved in Obama‘s direction."

"In 2016, 83% of the swing states move together because the polls underdid Donald Trump, of course we all remember that. And how about in 2020? 100% of the swing state poll averages underestimated Donald Trump, and so he did better than a lot of folks thought," he said.

"So this time around, don‘t be surprised at the swing-state polls when they underestimate one candidate, they underestimate all of them in the states, and that would lead to a relative Electoral College blowout with of one of the candidates winning at least 300 electoral votes," he concluded. ..."

 
Interesting data from NC this week. White people voted in force. On Tuesday, the racial turnout gap was less than 4 points. Now it's more than 7. Not sure if that's meaningful, but in 2020 the gap was 12%. I don't know if black people tend to vote more commonly on weekends, so maybe that's what the data is showing this week.
 
Interesting data from NC this week. White people voted in force. On Tuesday, the racial turnout gap was less than 4 points. Now it's more than 7. Not sure if that's meaningful, but in 2020 the gap was 12%. I don't know if black people tend to vote more commonly on weekends, so maybe that's what the data is showing this week.
Historically, they do, yes.
 
Historically, they do, yes.
I think the results in NC will be pretty good if the racial turnout gap is less than 10%. I had thought that black turnout was basically always less than white turnout but looking at the data for NC, it seems as though black turnout was higher than white turnout in 2008 and 2012. But the gap was 12 points in 2016 and 2020. If we can get it to 6 or even 8, we most likely win, I think.
 
I half-jokingly said they would want to do this right after storm.
Yeah, I remember you posting that and thinking, but not posting, "Come on, don't say stuff like that out loud. You never know who reads this board."
 
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