2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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Calheel said:
They didn't sell very many cars with zoom, zoom, zoom.
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I thought it was a successful campaign. But then again, I pay even less attention to those sorts of things than I do college football. Anyway, I think you see the point and there are surely many examples of what I'm talking about.

For instance, the very successful "Waaaasssupppp!" ad. Or this one, that might be the most impressive ad I've ever seen.

 
superrific said:
That's half right. Traditional argumentative messaging doesn't work so much any more. But you can get people's attention for 5 seconds with ads on YouTube and other places. The images matter.

When I was in grad school, I did a paper on advertising in America in the 20th century. It was so bizarre to see ads in the old days. They were like newspaper articles. They would have at least dozens of words, if not hundreds. They were trying to convince people that their products were better. By the 80s, the ad pros realized that pictures are a thousand words; that a good logo is better than all those old text ads put together; etc.

Political media has been a bit slow to catch onto those trends, but the social media environment is forcing them to. Mazda used to sell cars with "zoom zoom zoom." That's the sort of thing we can do.

And this is why MAGA was successful for Trump. It's unfortunately a great slogan. It's so great that it's become its own political category. Meanwhile, Hillary had "I'm With Her," the worst slogan I can remember. MAGA is now worn out, and I don't know if Trump has anything new. "We're not going back" is very good.
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Good call. Literally why "Tariffs!" I guess is working. No one cares to know what it is, but if the message is, "I'll make them pay tariffs" then that's all you need.
 
GQNC said:
Observations from second day of canvassing for Harris/Waltz:
1) Most people still are not home or fail to come to the door
2) There does still appear to be some people that still have not decided on president and governor (or they’re lying)
3) Bringing up important issues like the ACA contribution to all health insurance availability regardless of preexisting conditions and for children to age 25 and the effects to women’s healthcare related to Dobbs decision can get nods of approval
4) some women feel they need to keep voices low so their MAGA husband watching TV in the other room does not hear the conversation
5) there is opportunity to help provide a ride to the polling place for some residents
6) when you are getting in 10,000+ steps canvassing, you don’t have the time or inclination to get depressed about polling data that is being reported by who knows what source
7) it is not a waste of time to help the GOTV effort. I encourage it for Harris/Stein/Hunt/Jackson/Green supporters. I do not encourage it for Trump/Robinson/etc supporters.
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Kudos
 
GQNC said:
Observations from second day of canvassing for Harris/Waltz:
1) Most people still are not home or fail to come to the door
2) There does still appear to be some people that still have not decided on president and governor (or they’re lying)
3) Bringing up important issues like the ACA contribution to all health insurance availability regardless of preexisting conditions and for children to age 25 and the effects to women’s healthcare related to Dobbs decision can get nods of approval
4) some women feel they need to keep voices low so their MAGA husband watching TV in the other room does not hear the conversation
5) there is opportunity to help provide a ride to the polling place for some residents
6) when you are getting in 10,000+ steps canvassing, you don’t have the time or inclination to get depressed about polling data that is being reported by who knows what source
7) it is not a waste of time to help the GOTV effort. I encourage it for Harris/Stein/Hunt/Jackson/Green supporters. I do not encourage it for Trump/Robinson/etc supporters.
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#4 gives me more hope for Harris than anything else
 
Trump got 46.1% of the vote in 2016 and 46.8% in 2020, and it does seem as if his ceiling is 47% max, more likely somewhere between 46 and 47%. So I remain skeptical of any poll that shows him getting over 47%. I mean, he could get more than that, but using his first two elections as a baseline it doesn't seem likely.
 
GQNC said:
Observations from second day of canvassing for Harris/Waltz:
1) Most people still are not home or fail to come to the door
2) There does still appear to be some people that still have not decided on president and governor (or they’re lying)
3) Bringing up important issues like the ACA contribution to all health insurance availability regardless of preexisting conditions and for children to age 25 and the effects to women’s healthcare related to Dobbs decision can get nods of approval
4) some women feel they need to keep voices low so their MAGA husband watching TV in the other room does not hear the conversation
5) there is opportunity to help provide a ride to the polling place for some residents
6) when you are getting in 10,000+ steps canvassing, you don’t have the time or inclination to get depressed about polling data that is being reported by who knows what source
7) it is not a waste of time to help the GOTV effort. I encourage it for Harris/Stein/Hunt/Jackson/Green supporters. I do not encourage it for Trump/Robinson/etc supporters.
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When canvassing do you have a checklist of which residences to hit or do you go to every door in the area you’re working?
 
1moretimeagain said:
When canvassing do you have a checklist of which residences to hit or do you go to every door in the area you’re working?
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The lady that came to my house was knocking on doors at specific adresses looking for specific named folks Folks who had not yet voted but were indicated to live at a "Democratic Household"
 
Mulberry Heel said:
Trump got 46.1% of the vote in 2016 and 46.8% in 2020, and it does seem as if his ceiling is 47% max, more likely somewhere between 46 and 47%. So I remain skeptical of any poll that shows him getting over 47%. I mean, he could get more than that, but using his first two elections as a baseline it doesn't seem likely.
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It wouldn't shock me if he continues the trend from the first two elections and gets something like 47.5% of the popular vote. Of course it's hard to know what that means for his prospect of winning enough electoral votes.
 
HeelingAg said:
He's not dumb. He just isn't honest about what drives his political fealties.
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Agree. Pubs like HY are not dumb. But, as this article shows, many of them are EXTREMELY, and presumably willfully, uninformed.


The economy has also emerged as one of the five most frequently mentioned topics for Harris in every week dating to mid-August, although the sentiment of those mentions – whether the terms and tones used are positive or negative – varies across party lines.

“I’ve heard about her wanting to better the economy,” one Democrat wrote in the latest poll, while a Republican wrote that Harris was taking “credit for the economy being strong when, in fact, the economy was strong when Biden/Harris took over and then tanked the economy.”
 
rodoheel said:
It wouldn't shock me if he continues the trend from the first two elections and gets something like 47.5% of the popular vote. Of course it's hard to know what that means for his prospect of winning enough electoral votes.
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I just don't see him getting more than 47% at most. At any rate we'll all find out soon enough.
 
uncjhodges said:
porque no los dos
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I suppose that elicits a distinction between intellectual abilities and smart vs dumb. Lots of very dumb intelligent folk out there.

That said, I've seen enough CallaYeahs over the years to firmly believe they're in on the noxious shit, and merely hide behind the financials. I think most of whatever y'all are still reading from HY is contrived to appear "fiscally conservative" and "I vote my wallet" to hide the anti-social, xenophobic, and worse, barely an inch beneath the bullshit.

I mean, there's overwhelming data stating THIS presidency has been a huge boon to the middle class budget, and everything about ttump's tariff plan will crush everyone but the filthy rich under record setting inflation and market instability. I'm actually quite convinced the tariff shit is an oligarchic ploy to create instability, just like duration COVID, because in that space the rich get richer and more powerful (again, see COVID).
 
Expanding on the excellent point a poster made earlier today: yes social media seems to be what MAGA voters respond to. Could explain why Republicans tend to ignore ground games and focus on outrage to drive social media blood pressure. In this way they can achieve their voting "ceiling" rather then be stuck with their "floor" as the end voting result.

On the other hand, for Dems to achieve their "ceiling" then they must focus on their ground game. Pretty much always has been that way.

So if both sides do their job well, then the voting result is closer to each side's "ceiling". Which could mirror polling I suppose.

Unless those pesky undecided's come into play and actually break one way or the other.
 
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