2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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GQNC said:
Observations from second day of canvassing for Harris/Waltz:
1) Most people still are not home or fail to come to the door
2) There does still appear to be some people that still have not decided on president and governor (or they’re lying)
3) Bringing up important issues like the ACA contribution to all health insurance availability regardless of preexisting conditions and for children to age 25 and the effects to women’s healthcare related to Dobbs decision can get nods of approval
4) some women feel they need to keep voices low so their MAGA husband watching TV in the other room does not hear the conversation
5) there is opportunity to help provide a ride to the polling place for some residents
6) when you are getting in 10,000+ steps canvassing, you don’t have the time or inclination to get depressed about polling data that is being reported by who knows what source
7) it is not a waste of time to help the GOTV effort. I encourage it for Harris/Stein/Hunt/Jackson/Green supporters. I do not encourage it for Trump/Robinson/etc supporters.
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When canvassing do you have a checklist of which residences to hit or do you go to every door in the area you’re working?
 
1moretimeagain said:
When canvassing do you have a checklist of which residences to hit or do you go to every door in the area you’re working?
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The lady that came to my house was knocking on doors at specific adresses looking for specific named folks Folks who had not yet voted but were indicated to live at a "Democratic Household"
 
Mulberry Heel said:
Trump got 46.1% of the vote in 2016 and 46.8% in 2020, and it does seem as if his ceiling is 47% max, more likely somewhere between 46 and 47%. So I remain skeptical of any poll that shows him getting over 47%. I mean, he could get more than that, but using his first two elections as a baseline it doesn't seem likely.
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It wouldn't shock me if he continues the trend from the first two elections and gets something like 47.5% of the popular vote. Of course it's hard to know what that means for his prospect of winning enough electoral votes.
 
HeelingAg said:
He's not dumb. He just isn't honest about what drives his political fealties.
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Agree. Pubs like HY are not dumb. But, as this article shows, many of them are EXTREMELY, and presumably willfully, uninformed.


The economy has also emerged as one of the five most frequently mentioned topics for Harris in every week dating to mid-August, although the sentiment of those mentions – whether the terms and tones used are positive or negative – varies across party lines.

“I’ve heard about her wanting to better the economy,” one Democrat wrote in the latest poll, while a Republican wrote that Harris was taking “credit for the economy being strong when, in fact, the economy was strong when Biden/Harris took over and then tanked the economy.”
 
rodoheel said:
It wouldn't shock me if he continues the trend from the first two elections and gets something like 47.5% of the popular vote. Of course it's hard to know what that means for his prospect of winning enough electoral votes.
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I just don't see him getting more than 47% at most. At any rate we'll all find out soon enough.
 
Expanding on the excellent point a poster made earlier today: yes social media seems to be what MAGA voters respond to. Could explain why Republicans tend to ignore ground games and focus on outrage to drive social media blood pressure. In this way they can achieve their voting "ceiling" rather then be stuck with their "floor" as the end voting result.

On the other hand, for Dems to achieve their "ceiling" then they must focus on their ground game. Pretty much always has been that way.

So if both sides do their job well, then the voting result is closer to each side's "ceiling". Which could mirror polling I suppose.

Unless those pesky undecided's come into play and actually break one way or the other.
 
BlueSmoke said:
Expanding on the excellent point a poster made earlier today: yes social media seems to be what MAGA voters respond to. Could explain why Republicans tend to ignore ground games and focus on outrage to drive social media blood pressure. In this way they can achieve their voting "ceiling" rather then be stuck with their "floor" as the end voting result.

On the other hand, for Dems to achieve their "ceiling" then they must focus on their ground game. Pretty much always has been that way.

So if both sides do their job well, then the voting result is closer to each side's "ceiling". Which could mirror polling I suppose.

Unless those pesky undecided's come into play and actually break one way or the other.
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I don't think this is a conscious choice. From what I understand, the ground game woes for the GOP are because:

1. Trump was diverting so much of the donations to his own use, and thus the campaign didn't have the money to invest in anything proper.
2. Trump installed an idiot as head of the RNC, who was then promptly convinced to hand over GOTV to Turning Point USA, which had no idea how to do it. Then Elon stepped in, but he also doesn't know how to do it.

I very much doubt that the GOP doesn't want or care about a ground game. Rather, I think this is a cost of the corruption and nepotism that drives the Trump campaign.
 
superrific said:
I don't think this is a conscious choice. From what I understand, the ground game woes for the GOP are because:

1. Trump was diverting so much of the donations to his own use, and thus the campaign didn't have the money to invest in anything proper.
2. Trump installed an idiot as head of the RNC, who was then promptly convinced to hand over GOTV to Turning Point USA, which had no idea how to do it. Then Elon stepped in, but he also doesn't know how to do it.

I very much doubt that the GOP doesn't want or care about a ground game. Rather, I think this is a cost of the corruption and nepotism that drives the Trump campaign.
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That, and the GOP has no real interest in organizing or governing anything. It's a party of chaos and destruction, not organization.
 
lawtig02 said:
That, and the GOP has no real interest in organizing or governing anything. It's a party of chaos and destruction, not organization.
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Trump's GOP. It wasn't always that way. Remember when the GOP was the party of discipline? As Bill said, "Dems fall in love, Republicans fall in line." Karl Rove ran a tight ship.
 
8992Tiger said:
For the GQPers, messaging = lying, and you are right, they are damn good at it.
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Policy is complicated. When you don’t have a policy and aren’t encumbered by pesky things like facts, messaging is easy.

Taking real policies and boiling then down to 3 word messages that’ll fit on a bumper sticker is hard, if not impossible
 
lawtig02 said:
Pubs like HY are not dumb. But, as this article shows, many of them are EXTREMELY, and presumably willfully, uninformed.
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But how can anybody be uniformed about gas prices? Presumably he is filling up his car weekly, he can see with his own eyes that gas prices are coming down and in any event even the highest recent prices are nowhere near where they were 15+ years ago. Granted, that number cited as the high water mark from 2008 was an outlier, but gas has been in the mid-$2 to low $3 range for quite some time, so why would somebody armed with that first-hand knowledge cite gas prices as evidence that everything is "totally out of control and creating financial strain on the middle class"?
 
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