2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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I couldā€™ve sworn we had folks promising us that Joe Biden making a gaffe on an obscure Zoom call would be irreparably damaging to the Harris campaign, but a Trump surrogate calling Puerto Ricans garbage and then the campaign doubling down by wheeling Trump around in a garbage truck, would not negatively impact the Trump campaign.
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
Seriously?
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Iā€™m also surprised that white females go trump, but less so about the numbers that turn out as the rationale. Do they have no self-respect? I canā€™t imagine my wife or daughters voting for a person that degrades women, has cheated on multiple wives, lies constantly, has been convicted of sexual assault, and has no moral fiber in his body. I can understand why dumb male boomers and zoomers vote for him because their lives didnā€™t turn out as expected and they donā€™t want minorities to have additional power/influence or are in it for the lulz, but expect women to be able to be more rational than those morons.
 
DrillAndFillHeel said:
The confidence level on this board for Harris has seemed fairly high over the last few days. The conglomerate of all the polls I see (mostly posted here!) seem to demonstrate a toss up and some even suggesting Trump in the lead.

Whatā€™s the source of confidence in light of the above mentioned polls??
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Most polls are garbage.
Cross tab data looks really good for Harris.

Women are voting for their freedoms. Even older women are turning out for her. They donā€™t want their daughters, nieces, grandchildren etc growing up with fewer rights than they didā€¦

And I really think people are just sick of Trump.
 
DantesHair said:
Iā€™m also surprised that white females go trump, but less so about the numbers that turn out as the rationale. Do they have no self-respect? I canā€™t imagine my wife or daughters voting for a person that degrades women, has cheated on multiple wives, lies constantly, has been convicted of sexual assault, and has no moral fiber in his body. I can understand why dumb male boomers and zoomers vote for him because their lives didnā€™t turn out as expected and they donā€™t want minorities to have additional power/influence or are in it for the lulz, but expect women to be able to be more rational than those morons.
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I wonā€™t try to speak for all the women who vote for Trump, but I would imagine the overwhelming, overwhelming vast majority have been brainwashed by the mental disease that is evangelical Christianity. All of the women in my extended family who are voting for Trump have Southern Baptist instilled belief systems that would make the Handmaidā€™s Tale blush. By contrast, every single one of the college educated women in my extended orbit, even if they are more moderate or conservative, are unimaginably repulsed by Trump and his movement. Thatā€™s where the dividing line of demarcation is, IMO: between educated/professional women and their counterparts.
 
Reince Priebus was on ABC this morning saying that democrats need 54% of the vote on Election Day in Wisconsin and that there was no chance of that occurring. He said the early vote is incredibly positive for Trump and got no pushback.

Isnā€™t this just using the thinking Republican = Trump. I was surprised about lack of pushback.
 
I know. They've pushed back so vociferously on everything else the Republicans have claimed this election, one or two of which that were more exaggerated than this one.
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
Reince Priebus was on ABC this morning saying that democrats need 54% of the vote on Election Day in Wisconsin and that there was no chance of that occurring. He said the early vote is incredibly positive for Trump and got no pushback.

Isnā€™t this just using the thinking Republican = Trump. I was surprised about lack of pushback.
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It's them setting the stage for cheating being their only answer

Then they will act aghast at the murder and violence happening
 
The Seltzer poll is not "almost certainly accurate." For one thing, it has a margin of error. Second, while Seltzer has been great in the past, it doesn't mean she will continue to be accurate. And she had one election, in 2018, where she was off by a fair margin (although not so bad for a state poll).

The importance of the Seltzer poll isn't so much the top line, but rather the magnitude. Even if it's wrong by 5 points it's still good for Kamala. Seltzer would have to be VERY wrong for the polling in Iowa to favor Trump. And that's good. But it's one state and one poll.
 
DantesHair said:
Iā€™m also surprised that white females go trump, but less so about the numbers that turn out as the rationale. Do they have no self-respect? I canā€™t imagine my wife or daughters voting for a person that degrades women, has cheated on multiple wives, lies constantly, has been convicted of sexual assault, and has no moral fiber in his body. I can understand why dumb male boomers and zoomers vote for him because their lives didnā€™t turn out as expected and they donā€™t want minorities to have additional power/influence or are in it for the lulz, but expect women to be able to be more rational than those morons.
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Or maybe, just maybe, white women can think for themselves and your impression of what their motivations are (or should be) are inaccurate.

Or is that not possible?
 
The other thing the Seltzer poll does add, to amplify a post already made, is a poll that isn't subject to herding. That's in part because a) Seltzer is so secure she DGAF about one-time accuracy; and b) when there are so few polls, herding is impossible. And thus it's interesting to look at the underpolled states. Nobody is herding on NE-1 either.

The herding seems worse this year than in the past.
 
I took a bit of heat on here last Sunday for stating I think Trump will win. Not because of freaking out but because - while I've seen the swing state polls - the national polling margins have never favored Kamala the way they most often have to favor a Democrat in order to win. Small sampling, but I did call 2016 and 2020 correctly. Not because of any expertise, obviously. Just a dude with a WiFi connection and a keyboard.

However, I have become much more optimistic about Kamala's chances since the MSG fallout. I didn't expect it to move the needle. I mean, nothing seems to do so with this guy. But this truly seems to have done so. Amazing, because it wasn't even him that said it.

So, I'm cautiously optimistic about her chances now. And I'll just leave it at that.
 
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