2024 Presidential Election | ELECTION DAY 2024

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superrific said:
It really wouldn't be a disaster with that number. As I've said before, the numbers can tell only one story. If you're looking at a poll that shows Kamala +3, and she's only at 80% among black people . . . it means she has support elsewhere. For that to be bad for her, you'd have to assume the 80% holds but the stronger support elsewhere doesn't.

Remember also that composition effects matter. Kamala could do worse with every single demographic group than HRC and still win, if the mix of demographics changes. If black people were 10% of the electorate in 2016 and 15% this year, then the black vote will be better for Kamala even if she's not winning as high a % of it.
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Yes and no.

Voting constituencies do change over time -- e.g., the non-educated white voter outside of the south switching from democrat to republican after Obama. But these changes tend to happen very slowly, not all at once. The black vote has been solidly democratic -- roughly 90%, give or take a few points here or there, especially when Perot ran and could steal a few votes. If that number dipped all the way down to 80%, I don't believe there would be enough new constituencies to take up the slack, especially in the swing states of Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

That said, as I wrote above, I don't believe the final exit poll numbers will be anywhere close to 80%. When all is said and done, I expect those numbers to be between 85% and 90%, likely closer to 90%.
 
superrific said:
From a column in Slate (Mark Joseph Stern)

Adjusting each candidate’s vote share by demographic, as FiveThirtyEight allows, illustrates the problem for Republicans: Bumping up minority support for Trump does shockingly little to improve his odds. My former colleague Matt Yglesias has pointed out, for example, that Trump could improve 10 points with Hispanic voters and 20 points with Black Americans—but still lose to Harris if he does just 2 points worse with white people. Even if Trump does exponentially better with Hispanic voters than he did in 2020, he’ll lose if Harris shaves off a few points among whites. The Electoral College bias is exacerbated by the fact that white people still make up a sizable majority of the country. So Republican gains among nonwhites don’t count for much, especially when they’re offset by even minor Democratic gains among whites.
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Of course there is a multiplier effect with white voting patterns given how many more white people vote than other races. But you've got to pick up a lot of white suburban moms in Philadelphia if your black margins are dropping by 10%. And those voting patterns also tend to hold pretty steady from election to election.

It would be surprising indeed if Kamala were to lose 10% margins with black voters and gain 2% with white voters. That would be one hell of a gender gap if it came to fruition.
 
TarHeelGrad said:
The economy, like a battleship, does not turn on a dime. Just like it can take miles for a battleship to turn, it can take a year or two for an economy to change (for better or for worse). Trump's absolutely awful handling of the pandemic was not felt immediately during COVID. It took some time for all that to play out, and you know that Biden inherited an absolute mess.

If your point is that the average voter is too stupid to understand this, I agree. But the metrics out there show that the economy now is better than when Trump left office. And if you factor in the EFFECTS of Trump going into 2021 (and even 2022), Biden has done an outstanding job of turning around the economy.

If Trump is elected and implements his policies, the fear is that some of the effects may not be felt until almost the next election. And then the Democrats will, once again, have to clean up a Pub's mess and yet still get all the blame for the economy.
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This exact scenario plays out again and again. OBama cleaned up W’s mess. Trump inherited great stuff left over from Obama’s 2 terms.
W inherited a great economy left over from Clinton’s 2 terms.
Clinton inherited the mess left from trickledown Ronnie and his lapdog HW.
Carter was only allowed one term to try and straighten out Nixon/Fords mess. (Remember the gas lines in the mid 1970’s?. Will credit Nixon as EPA passed under his watch, and he did finally get us out of Vietnam, but other than that, Nixon shit the bed on several levels. Carter came in took the ecology side up a notch with solar panels on the White House, which Reagan summarily removed and trashed) .

Shit happens in circles like this my entire life. The liberals try to save the economy and act ecologically deft, and then the pubs and “cons” come along and screw it all up… leaving a mess for the next Dem to clean up. After 2 terms, the Dems have righted the ship, only to have another dumbass con show up and screw everything up all over again.
 
Rock said:
No bannage. Just said plz refrain from language like that.
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I understand why you did that.

I’d rather see such a post called out and a comment within the post saying, “This is unacceptable.” Be specific about the language.

Deleting the comment allows the poster to deny, deny, deny down the road.
 
Zoo_View said:
I understand why you did that.

I’d rather see such a post called out and a comment within the post saying, “This is unacceptable.” Be specific about the language.

Deleting the comment allows the poster to deny, deny, deny down the road.
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So it’s too soon to super ignore Illithor?
 
JCTarheel82 said:
JMO but I would prefer someone who uses that kind of language be summarily banned as it speaks to their character and provides insight into their probable future contributions to this message board community.
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I think you offer warning, and ban with repeat language, regardless of space between. There’s still a 1:100 chance someone could drop a word like that without a true sense of its inappropriateness. Just a couple of years ago, a nurse casually dropped the r-word in front of me and was genuinely shocked and apologetic when I explained its offensiveness, particularly given my time working in special education.
 
JCTarheel82 said:
JMO but I would prefer someone who uses that kind of language be summarily banned as it speaks to their character and provides insight into their probable future contributions to this message board community.
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Not excusing the language, but someone who is a bit older (60's and above) may not realize that certain words are no longer acceptable. Give them a chance and perhaps they learn something.
 
HeelingAg said:
I think you offer warning, and ban with repeat language, regardless of space between. There’s still a 1:100 chance someone could drop a word like that without a true sense of its inappropriateness. Just a couple of years ago, a nurse casually dropped the r-word in front of me and was genuinely shocked and apologetic when I explained its offensiveness, particularly given my time working in special education.
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Understand what you're saying and I took that into account before stating my position. I have a special needs child so my tolerance for that language is very low.
 
Calheel said:
Of course there is a multiplier effect with white voting patterns given how many more white people vote than other races. But you've got to pick up a lot of white suburban moms in Philadelphia if your black margins are dropping by 10%. And those voting patterns also tend to hold pretty steady from election to election.

It would be surprising indeed if Kamala were to lose 10% margins with black voters and gain 2% with white voters. That would be one hell of a gender gap if it came to fruition.
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But again, if that's what the poll is saying, it's clearly possible. These aren't different polls showing increased minority support for Trump with Kamala winning. The polls are showing that Kamala is in fact doing well enough with other constituencies to offset that loss.

One thing to add, of course, is that a lot depends on where Kamala is losing black support. I don't know if the state level polls ever have enough respondents to measure the black vote with any reasonable margin of error, but it's entirely possible that black people are finding it easier to stray from the Dems when their votes don't really matter. You know, like (mostly white) third party voters. So if Trump is gaining among Latinos in California or black Nashvillians, it doesn't matter to the election.

About 40% of Philly voters are black. There were about 750K Philly ballots cast in 2020, and Biden won about 81% of them. I don't know how Biden did among black Philadelphians, but let's say it's 90% and Kamala is only going to get 80%. That's a shift of 4% of 750K, or about 30,000 votes -- or about 40% of Biden's statewide margin of victory. It sounds like a lot, but in a state of 7M voters, it's just not that big of an effect. It takes a 1% movement or so in the white female vote in the state to make up for that.
 
Paine said:
First canvasser at my door here in Raleigh was from the Trump team. I told the dude right off that I’m voting for Kamala, but I guess because I’m a white dude with a country accent he thought I could be convinced.

He went hard on talking about killing babies and cutting off genitals. I was more than happy to have him waste his time talking to me. He presented no arguments as to why I should vote for Trump other than Dems are killing babies and cutting off kids’ genitals.
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I’d have told him I was voting for Harris with the hope that she would cut his balls off.
 
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