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2024 Presidential Election | ELECTION DAY 2024

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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“… North Carolina’s rural counties have also undergone the national dynamic of a Republican realignment, but the rural areas are not the most Republican region of the state. This is due to the influence of majority-minority counties in the eastern part of the state, part of the South’s historic “Black Belt” line of counties with large populations of Black voters. The most Republican region of the state would be the surrounding suburban counties to the urban counties: they are typically 65-35 Republican, whereas rural counties combined are 60-40 Republican.

… for Democrats to win statewide in North Carolina, they must follow a couple of specific Tar Heel politics rules. First, generate critical turnout rates among their core voters, namely Black voters. In the past few elections, registered Black voters in North Carolina have seen a lower-than-statewide average turnout rate, while White voters are above the state’s turnout rate. Registered Democrats typically meet the state-turnout rate, but it doesn’t help when their opposition (registered Republicans) have a five-to-six point advantage in their turnout rates.

A generational dynamic is clearly at play in North Carolina: in 2020, the turnout for registered Boomers in the state was 86 percent, while among Millennials it was 62 percent and Generation Z saw a turnout rate of 61 percent. [ What about Gen-X?]

Finally, North Carolina doesn’t have a centralized “Atlanta-metro” dynamic when it comes to vote share, with the major urban areas spread across the Piedmont of the state. …”
 
nycfan said:


“… North Carolina’s rural counties have also undergone the national dynamic of a Republican realignment, but the rural areas are not the most Republican region of the state. This is due to the influence of majority-minority counties in the eastern part of the state, part of the South’s historic “Black Belt” line of counties with large populations of Black voters. The most Republican region of the state would be the surrounding suburban counties to the urban counties: they are typically 65-35 Republican, whereas rural counties combined are 60-40 Republican.

… for Democrats to win statewide in North Carolina, they must follow a couple of specific Tar Heel politics rules. First, generate critical turnout rates among their core voters, namely Black voters. In the past few elections, registered Black voters in North Carolina have seen a lower-than-statewide average turnout rate, while White voters are above the state’s turnout rate. Registered Democrats typically meet the state-turnout rate, but it doesn’t help when their opposition (registered Republicans) have a five-to-six point advantage in their turnout rates.

A generational dynamic is clearly at play in North Carolina: in 2020, the turnout for registered Boomers in the state was 86 percent, while among Millennials it was 62 percent and Generation Z saw a turnout rate of 61 percent. [ What about Gen-X?]

Finally, North Carolina doesn’t have a centralized “Atlanta-metro” dynamic when it comes to vote share, with the major urban areas spread across the Piedmont of the state. …”
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My dream Durham couthy is delayed They to deliver a 11,000 vote plurality for Harris They deliver 11,100
 
politicalwire.com

Trump Is Convinced He'll Win

Tara Palmeri: "Despite the endless and voluminous and ubiquitous polling suggesting that we are careening toward a historically tight election, Donald Trump can only see an outcome in which he wins. Inside Mar-a-Lago, I’ve heard
politicalwire.com politicalwire.com

“… the only thing that the former president believes could cause him to fail, I’ve been told, is if the Republican National Committee election integrity unit—which includes at least one 2020 election denier—fails him…”
 
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