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2024 Presidential Election | ELECTION DAY 2024

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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  • Politics 
HeelYeah2012 said:
MSNBC is just as in the tank for the Democrats as Fox is for Republicans.
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This simply isn't true. Media bias rankings consistently show that Fox's TV programming is both (1) more partisan, and (2) less fact-based than MSNBC programming. You can look for yourself:

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Interactive Media Bias Chart | Ad Fontes Media

The Interactive Media Bias Chart offers the ability to search from among the thousands of rated web/print, TV and podcast sources.
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Compare where Maddow's show is versus programs like Fox & Friends, Jesse Waters' show, and Laura Ingraham's show. You will see that they generally skew considerably more partisan and considerably less fact-based. And that is absolutely confirmed by the "eye test" when you watch these programs. You will routinely see Fox hosts and guests calling Trump the best, the greatest, the most perfect, etc. You do not see MSNBC or anyone else say these things about Harris and Democrats.

Is MSNBC's news coverage slanted to favor liberal perspectives? Yes, it is; it is the furthest left of any cable news network in terms of its coverage. But are they "in the tank" for democrats like Fox is for Republicans generally, and especially Trump? Objectively, they absolutely are not.
 
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Illithor said:
Trump: I will protect Black jobs from the impacts of mass illegal immigration.
Media: RACIST!!!!!!
Kamala: To win back black voters, I'm proposing free money and drugs.
Media: SO INCLUSIVE!!!!
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Leaving aside the unseriousness of this post, this is an objectively funny criticism, since Trump has spent the last few weeks on the campaign trail throwing out promises of random tax cuts for random groups of people like he's running for class president promising to make the vending machines free.
 
Illithor said:
Trump: I will protect Black jobs from the impacts of mass illegal immigration.
Media: RACIST!!!!!!
Kamala: To win back black voters, I'm proposing free money and drugs.
Media: SO INCLUSIVE!!!!

69% of people don't trust the media.
31% of people are retarded.
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I will only say this once. Please never, ever use the final word of your post ever again. It is not a word for civilized discussion or debate.
 
Rock said:
No one had alerted me but I just saw it and removed his posts. It's horrible anyway but as a teacher with numerous students of varying ability, it makes me extra angry.
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Not sure if you banned the poster, and I'm not a huge fan of doing that, but I have a feeling that's not the last time we'd hear objectively reprehensible things from him.
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
When talking about how far a dollar stretches, I think that term is generally used to talk about the net impact of how much money someone is making less what they’re spending on goods. In other words, it encompasses both wage growth and inflation. Otherwise yes you’d be right that taken literally, any 0.1% inflation would make you say your dollar “stretched further” under the predecessor.

To put it a different way - more middle class families felt they were getting ahead under Trump than they do under the current administration.

Obviously you are smart enough to know that just because inflation has now normalized a bit, people’s salaries haven’t caught up to the massive inflation we were seeing a couple years ago. Current year over year inflation might be 2-3% but it’s 2-3% on top of a crazy high number that was hurting a lot of people who live paycheck to paycheck. The 3-4 year percentage price increases are still crazy, especially for groceries.

And that’s why Trump still has a puncher’s chance to win.
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The economy, like a battleship, does not turn on a dime. Just like it can take miles for a battleship to turn, it can take a year or two for an economy to change (for better or for worse). Trump's absolutely awful handling of the pandemic was not felt immediately during COVID. It took some time for all that to play out, and you know that Biden inherited an absolute mess.

If your point is that the average voter is too stupid to understand this, I agree. But the metrics out there show that the economy now is better than when Trump left office. And if you factor in the EFFECTS of Trump going into 2021 (and even 2022), Biden has done an outstanding job of turning around the economy.

If Trump is elected and implements his policies, the fear is that some of the effects may not be felt until almost the next election. And then the Democrats will, once again, have to clean up a Pub's mess and yet still get all the blame for the economy.
 
superrific said:
It really wouldn't be a disaster with that number. As I've said before, the numbers can tell only one story. If you're looking at a poll that shows Kamala +3, and she's only at 80% among black people . . . it means she has support elsewhere. For that to be bad for her, you'd have to assume the 80% holds but the stronger support elsewhere doesn't.

Remember also that composition effects matter. Kamala could do worse with every single demographic group than HRC and still win, if the mix of demographics changes. If black people were 10% of the electorate in 2016 and 15% this year, then the black vote will be better for Kamala even if she's not winning as high a % of it.
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Yes and no.

Voting constituencies do change over time -- e.g., the non-educated white voter outside of the south switching from democrat to republican after Obama. But these changes tend to happen very slowly, not all at once. The black vote has been solidly democratic -- roughly 90%, give or take a few points here or there, especially when Perot ran and could steal a few votes. If that number dipped all the way down to 80%, I don't believe there would be enough new constituencies to take up the slack, especially in the swing states of Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

That said, as I wrote above, I don't believe the final exit poll numbers will be anywhere close to 80%. When all is said and done, I expect those numbers to be between 85% and 90%, likely closer to 90%.
 
superrific said:
From a column in Slate (Mark Joseph Stern)

Adjusting each candidate’s vote share by demographic, as FiveThirtyEight allows, illustrates the problem for Republicans: Bumping up minority support for Trump does shockingly little to improve his odds. My former colleague Matt Yglesias has pointed out, for example, that Trump could improve 10 points with Hispanic voters and 20 points with Black Americans—but still lose to Harris if he does just 2 points worse with white people. Even if Trump does exponentially better with Hispanic voters than he did in 2020, he’ll lose if Harris shaves off a few points among whites. The Electoral College bias is exacerbated by the fact that white people still make up a sizable majority of the country. So Republican gains among nonwhites don’t count for much, especially when they’re offset by even minor Democratic gains among whites.
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Of course there is a multiplier effect with white voting patterns given how many more white people vote than other races. But you've got to pick up a lot of white suburban moms in Philadelphia if your black margins are dropping by 10%. And those voting patterns also tend to hold pretty steady from election to election.

It would be surprising indeed if Kamala were to lose 10% margins with black voters and gain 2% with white voters. That would be one hell of a gender gap if it came to fruition.
 
TarHeelGrad said:
The economy, like a battleship, does not turn on a dime. Just like it can take miles for a battleship to turn, it can take a year or two for an economy to change (for better or for worse). Trump's absolutely awful handling of the pandemic was not felt immediately during COVID. It took some time for all that to play out, and you know that Biden inherited an absolute mess.

If your point is that the average voter is too stupid to understand this, I agree. But the metrics out there show that the economy now is better than when Trump left office. And if you factor in the EFFECTS of Trump going into 2021 (and even 2022), Biden has done an outstanding job of turning around the economy.

If Trump is elected and implements his policies, the fear is that some of the effects may not be felt until almost the next election. And then the Democrats will, once again, have to clean up a Pub's mess and yet still get all the blame for the economy.
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This exact scenario plays out again and again. OBama cleaned up W’s mess. Trump inherited great stuff left over from Obama’s 2 terms.
W inherited a great economy left over from Clinton’s 2 terms.
Clinton inherited the mess left from trickledown Ronnie and his lapdog HW.
Carter was only allowed one term to try and straighten out Nixon/Fords mess. (Remember the gas lines in the mid 1970’s?. Will credit Nixon as EPA passed under his watch, and he did finally get us out of Vietnam, but other than that, Nixon shit the bed on several levels. Carter came in took the ecology side up a notch with solar panels on the White House, which Reagan summarily removed and trashed) .

Shit happens in circles like this my entire life. The liberals try to save the economy and act ecologically deft, and then the pubs and “cons” come along and screw it all up… leaving a mess for the next Dem to clean up. After 2 terms, the Dems have righted the ship, only to have another dumbass con show up and screw everything up all over again.
 
Rock said:
No bannage. Just said plz refrain from language like that.
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I understand why you did that.

I’d rather see such a post called out and a comment within the post saying, “This is unacceptable.” Be specific about the language.

Deleting the comment allows the poster to deny, deny, deny down the road.
 
Zoo_View said:
I understand why you did that.

I’d rather see such a post called out and a comment within the post saying, “This is unacceptable.” Be specific about the language.

Deleting the comment allows the poster to deny, deny, deny down the road.
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So it’s too soon to super ignore Illithor?
 
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